Pullback?

DJ resistance :   15.709.58  historical high
                         15.475
                         15.302  50day MA (moving average)

DJ support  :     15.050
                         14.800
                         14.550
                         14.400 Strong
                         14.400 Strong very important

Technical analysis : 
The DJ index got its historical highest level last week 15.709.58 and closing at 15.676.94 on September 18th. The DJ index needs a weekly closing over those levels to reconfirm the positive trend.
The market trend still points higher. The monthly chart from 1988 shows positive besides the positive trend line and channel on the daily chart from March 2009.
But there is a risk, if you watch the daily chart in the last six months, you are going to realise that the DJ could be forming a triple top that is very negative or  a clear range between 14.400 and 15.709.58.

Fundamentals  :
The DJ is losing streaks in the last five days because the possible goverment shutdown overriding the better than expected economic news.
Besides, the debt ceiling theme is for October. The QE worries are translated to October 29th. in the next FOMC. The market perceive the Syria fears softer.
It is clear that some of the key factors of the almost five years bull market have been the high liquidity level from QE, the corporate  rationalisation and reestructuration, they are more efficient and solid.
We have to pay attention on Thursday to weekly jobless claims, consumer spending, PCE price index, and on Friday to personal income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

We conclude the DJ is in a positive trend, I am still optimistic  with the stock matket, we are facing risks but life is a risk.
I am trying to include charts to show you the support of our conclusion and you could use them to navigate in these hectic market.
Dear traders and investors my goal is to assist you in our  solitude  property in decision-making in our profession,
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

New highs for the Dow Jones index?

DJ resistance :    15.658,36  Strong (historical high)
                          15.050

DJ support    :     15.380
                           15.350
                           15.050 Strong (very important)
                           14.760 Very Strong


Technicals : The Dow Jones index is still over the positive trendline and in the positive channel from the March 2009 lows. Technicals support a bull issue in the short and long term. The S&P is at almost its high peak 1.709. The major resistance for DJ is its historical high15.658.36 and this target remains strong as a technical test. To confirm the uptrend the DJ has to close higher to complete the higher high.
But if you watch the DJ daily chart, you are going to realise that the blue-chip benchmark could be in a range DJ14.400 - 15.658.36 and if it not penetrates this upper line the DJ is going to form a triple top that would be negative for this index.

Fundamentals : The September market brought a lot of concerns like QE tapering (FED FOMC September 18th.), weak employment, Syria fears (soft for the moment), U.S.A. budget (sequester), debt ceiling (October), and so on.

We can conclude that the technical analysis supports the bulls despite the fundamental concerns.

Dear traders and investors,
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

August lows excellent support for the Dow Jones index

DJ resistance :    15.410  Strong
                          15.240  50 days moving average

DJ Support   :    15.050  prior resistance now support
                          15.000
                          14.916  prior resistance now support
                          14.760  Strong

The major U.S. stock market benchmarks are acting well technically despite September conjuncture like Syria geopolitical issues, FOMC concerns( next September 17th. and 18th.) about QE, unemployment (U.S.A. needs at least 250.000 new jobs every month to assure growth and to absorb unemployees and new labours), budget (sequester), debt ceiling(October), etc.

DJ rebounded from the technical support DJ14.760 in an splendid way and broke up  resistances DJ 14.916 and 15.050. The blu-chip benchmark has rallied to three week high from August lows. You can see those levels in the last comentary on September 2nd.

As I indicated the Dow Jones index is over the positive trend line and positive channel from 2009 lows what is very positive. I maintain my optimism in the stock market.

This positive stock market response is due to  more strong data out of China, peaceful signs about Syria, Europe in a positive way to its weak recovery, U.S.A. weak but recovery. It seems that we are going to see the highs of the Dow Jones again before de year end.

Traders and investors, I wish you Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

September stock market?

Dow Jones Resistance : 15.658 HIGH August 2,2013
                                       15.500
                                       15.050
                                       14.916

                   Support     : 14.760
                                       14.551   Strong
                                       14.382   Strong  3/18/2013 low
                                       14.127
                                       13.784   Strong  2/25/2013

From technical analysis the Dow Jones Index broke down  the last year positive trend line around DJ 15.000 but it is still in the positive trend line and positive channel from February 27, 2009 lows, that is very good.

I am still optimistic with the stock market and today we have gotten encouraging news about factory activities growth  in Spain, Italy, United Kingdom and China but due the actual conjuncture and September is regularly the worst month of the year for the stock market, I prefer to apply "cash-is-king".

I am going to watch these events or statistic news during September and explain why I will be for the cash to be ready to jump into the market.
- India deficit and Rupee weakness
- Brasil weak Real and interest rates rose to 9% p.a.
- Syria war fears, it is difficult to calibrate the consecuences
- QE tapering, watch FOMC on September 17th. and 18th. Will tapering begin? The U.S. deficit has shrunk and the Treasury needs to issue less new securities.
- China weak growth
- U.S.A. weak growth, it seems that GDP is going to grow only 1.7% on the third quarter instead 2% as market expected. BoA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sacks have reduced their expectations. Debt ceiling is for October.
- U.S. housing sales are not growing as last year, besides the 40% of the house sales are paid in cash. That means that foreigners and investors are the buyers, this is not good for a sustainable economy.

My dear fellows, I intend to support you because I know how hard is our profession and the loneliness that we came in our decisions.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises