Dow Jones Industrial Average overcame DJ18,000. It is in unknown territories in rally mode. Target accomplished.
The long term trend is bullish. I still think that we are going to see S&P at SP2,100 before the year's end.
I was comfortable and confident with DJ18,000 target before 2015 because I was expecting good U.S. economic news in spite of the weakness in the rest of the world, and the low interest rates. Besides the technical analysis which is clearly constructive to the bull side.
Dear traders and investors, my goal is to help you in navigating the market. I put all my knowledge, experience and strength of mi person to write this small blog every week. It is a passion and I feel the responsibility with you. Nothing is for granted in life but I am with you.
I want to thank my colleague who worked with me in Citibank who encouraged me to write about the market.
See you in January, I wish you;
!Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
!Happy Holidays!
!Seasons Greetings!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 23 de diciembre de 2014
martes, 16 de diciembre de 2014
What so hectic days for the stock market
DJ Resistance: 17,991 All-time record high
17,726.55
17,600
17,525
17,278 - 17,350
DJ Support: 16,990
16,588
16,320
16,015
15,854
Technical Analysis:
What a damage we can see in the charts. The strong support at DJ16,278 was penetrated and left far. The DJIA needs to overcome this level and also to recover a level over its 50 days moving average to look for stabilization. In the last seven sessions, six were very negative and only one positive. DJIA has lost almost 5.125% during this period.
S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have the same backdrop.
The trend is bullish in the long run, please watch the six years bull market chart. It is not clear in the short term.
We have to pay attention to DJ16,278. In that level there was a strong battle, please watch volume, and sellers fought buyers. Sellers were attracted there.
Let's see how the market reacts during these three days.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
17,726.55
17,600
17,525
17,278 - 17,350
DJ Support: 16,990
16,588
16,320
16,015
15,854
Technical Analysis:
What a damage we can see in the charts. The strong support at DJ16,278 was penetrated and left far. The DJIA needs to overcome this level and also to recover a level over its 50 days moving average to look for stabilization. In the last seven sessions, six were very negative and only one positive. DJIA has lost almost 5.125% during this period.
S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have the same backdrop.
The trend is bullish in the long run, please watch the six years bull market chart. It is not clear in the short term.
We have to pay attention to DJ16,278. In that level there was a strong battle, please watch volume, and sellers fought buyers. Sellers were attracted there.
Let's see how the market reacts during these three days.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
I will relay last week fundamentals blog:
"We are clear that U.S. economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth rate (maybe below 7% of GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.
What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs they are not the same as 2006 jobs, that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences." What I missed is the Russia case and the rubble.
Dear traders and investors, next economic news should be positive. This correction or reversal should be limited. Actually, sellers are driving the market, they are present and acting releasing their stocks into the market making the offer higher than the demand. Sellers are investors, traders and fund managers taking profit from their positions as I explained few weeks ago and cleaning their portfolios. For that, they sell bad or weak positions and take loses preparing the taxes to pay until April 2015. My expectations are more hectic days in the stock market and a Christmas Rally over December 20th. Please be calm and cool!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
Ulises
martes, 9 de diciembre de 2014
Sharp reversal from new all-time high, almost DJ18,000
DJ Resistance: 17,991 All-time record high
17,894 Prior all-time high
DJ Support: 17,726.55 Strong
17,600
17,525
17,278 - 17,350 Very strong
16,990
Technical Analysis:
DJIA has reversed sharp from its new all-time record high, it almost got DJ18,000.
This sharp reverse is important because sellers came at an important psychological level DJ18,000 and they battled the bulls this time. What I like is that there is a clear short term range formed during the last two weeks. This range should be the consolidation area for the market rest (DJ17,726 - 17,991). The market can stay in the range for ten days more fighting the bulls and bears. This fight will be defined with or not a Christmas Rally.
DJIA is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
It is hard to determine the DJIA supports due to the steep slope of the Dow Jones bounce up from mid-October and besides the market is in unknown territory.
The breakout point DJ17,278 - 17,350 should provide a formidable and strong support attracting buyers.
Considering DJIA behavior, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE also, the bull trend for medium and long term maintains its bullish perspective. The three indexes are well backed barring a break through supports.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
We are clear that U.S, economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth (maybe below 7% GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.
What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs, they are not the same as 2006 jobs that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences.
Dear traders and investors, we are facing hectic movements in the next 10 days. I expect that the supports are going to work well and, if that, we are going to be compensate by our Christmas Rally in the last ten days of December. Am I extremely optimistic? My nature is optimistic but I have done my due diligence. Nothing is written! be cool and navigate these markets according to your plans, stick with them!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,894 Prior all-time high
DJ Support: 17,726.55 Strong
17,600
17,525
17,278 - 17,350 Very strong
16,990
Technical Analysis:
DJIA has reversed sharp from its new all-time record high, it almost got DJ18,000.
This sharp reverse is important because sellers came at an important psychological level DJ18,000 and they battled the bulls this time. What I like is that there is a clear short term range formed during the last two weeks. This range should be the consolidation area for the market rest (DJ17,726 - 17,991). The market can stay in the range for ten days more fighting the bulls and bears. This fight will be defined with or not a Christmas Rally.
DJIA is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
It is hard to determine the DJIA supports due to the steep slope of the Dow Jones bounce up from mid-October and besides the market is in unknown territory.
The breakout point DJ17,278 - 17,350 should provide a formidable and strong support attracting buyers.
Considering DJIA behavior, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE also, the bull trend for medium and long term maintains its bullish perspective. The three indexes are well backed barring a break through supports.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
We are clear that U.S, economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth (maybe below 7% GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.
What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs, they are not the same as 2006 jobs that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences.
Dear traders and investors, we are facing hectic movements in the next 10 days. I expect that the supports are going to work well and, if that, we are going to be compensate by our Christmas Rally in the last ten days of December. Am I extremely optimistic? My nature is optimistic but I have done my due diligence. Nothing is written! be cool and navigate these markets according to your plans, stick with them!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 2 de diciembre de 2014
Dow Jones uptrend continues
DJ Resistance: 17,897 All-time record high
17,879.55 All-time close high
DJ Support: 17,705 Strong
17,600
17,500
17,278 - 17,350 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA got a 9% correction in October and continues ridding an extraordinary and powerful 7 weeks bounce.
This bounce up is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The breakout level of this up movement is DJ17,278 - 17,350 which is equivalent to the height of September. This last movement should find a very strong support at those levels, buyers should come to buy and fight bears there. It is almost a steep line to the new highs which makes difficult to determine small supports in the race. All this defines a constructive up move and confirm the bullish bias for December. The long term trend is bullish for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
This V Reversal has an academic target at DJ18,600.
Next target for the year end is DJ18,000 and S&P2,100.
Long over DJ17,278.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
We are going to get important economic news from this Wednesday specially non-farm payroll and unemployment rate on Friday. These figures during December are going to drive the market. December is a good month for the stock market. Traditionally we get Christmas rally and I think this December will follow the same pattern because U.S.A. economy is improving. UE economy is still weak but in a better shape, China probably will define a lower 2015 GDP target, Japan is in recession but asking for a new mandate to fix its deflationary and weak economy.
The market is expecting a deep correction at same point. The participants are nervous and are going to get any excuse to take profits. For example last Friday and Monday were profit taking days with the excuse of a black Friday figures disappointment.
My expectations for December are some market rest with some profits taking in the first 20 days of the month and a clear Christmas rally in the last 10 days of December. Remember I was wrong with my November expectations when I thought about market rest in the first two weeks, market always pointed up and finally we got our Thanksgiving rally.
Dear traders and investors, stay long over DJ17,288, I expect a good December for us.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,879.55 All-time close high
DJ Support: 17,705 Strong
17,600
17,500
17,278 - 17,350 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA got a 9% correction in October and continues ridding an extraordinary and powerful 7 weeks bounce.
This bounce up is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The breakout level of this up movement is DJ17,278 - 17,350 which is equivalent to the height of September. This last movement should find a very strong support at those levels, buyers should come to buy and fight bears there. It is almost a steep line to the new highs which makes difficult to determine small supports in the race. All this defines a constructive up move and confirm the bullish bias for December. The long term trend is bullish for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
This V Reversal has an academic target at DJ18,600.
Next target for the year end is DJ18,000 and S&P2,100.
Long over DJ17,278.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
We are going to get important economic news from this Wednesday specially non-farm payroll and unemployment rate on Friday. These figures during December are going to drive the market. December is a good month for the stock market. Traditionally we get Christmas rally and I think this December will follow the same pattern because U.S.A. economy is improving. UE economy is still weak but in a better shape, China probably will define a lower 2015 GDP target, Japan is in recession but asking for a new mandate to fix its deflationary and weak economy.
The market is expecting a deep correction at same point. The participants are nervous and are going to get any excuse to take profits. For example last Friday and Monday were profit taking days with the excuse of a black Friday figures disappointment.
My expectations for December are some market rest with some profits taking in the first 20 days of the month and a clear Christmas rally in the last 10 days of December. Remember I was wrong with my November expectations when I thought about market rest in the first two weeks, market always pointed up and finally we got our Thanksgiving rally.
Dear traders and investors, stay long over DJ17,288, I expect a good December for us.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 25 de noviembre de 2014
Thanksgiving rally
DJ Short Term Range: 17,705 - 17,817.90
DJ Support: 17,525 Strong
17,280 Strong September peak
Dear traders and investors, we got our Thanksgiving rally, we are going to get important economic news from next week as the unemployment.
I actually wish you a very nice Thanksgiving holiday, this is the time for families to be gathered together enjoying the peace and love around the heat and light of the home. Family is very important.
DJIA next target is DJ18,000 and S&P 2,100. U.S.markets are in a clear bullish trend despite an expected correction at some point.
See you next week.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
DJ Support: 17,525 Strong
17,280 Strong September peak
Dear traders and investors, we got our Thanksgiving rally, we are going to get important economic news from next week as the unemployment.
I actually wish you a very nice Thanksgiving holiday, this is the time for families to be gathered together enjoying the peace and love around the heat and light of the home. Family is very important.
DJIA next target is DJ18,000 and S&P 2,100. U.S.markets are in a clear bullish trend despite an expected correction at some point.
See you next week.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 19 de noviembre de 2014
S&P exceeeded 2050 points.
DJ Resistance: 17,735.71 Record all-time high
17,705 Prior all-time record high
DJ Support: 17,525 - 17,500
17,411 Strong
17,278 September's peak
16,990
16,588 Strong 2013's peak
16,320 Strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
S&P did new all-time record high at SP2056. I expected SP2050 for Thanksgiving and we got it one week in advance with this strong bull market.
DJIA and S&P are riding in unknown territories. The new DJIA short term range is DJ17,500 - 17,735.71.
The steep last four Weeks's spike is extremely bullish for medium and long term. Every week DJIA closed higher than previous. This is a strong bullish sign because it means that buyers are coming and bears are losing the fight with them.
The three indexes are in bullish mood, we should watch others like S&P400 or Russell 2000 because they can act as ballast if they don't have the same movement.
Next target for DJIA should be DJ18,000 and SP2,100. Technical analysis indicates a clearly bullish direction supported by a strong positive momentum.
Click over the charts to enlarge them
Fundamentals:
These markets are driven up by the last U.S.A. economic news like the consumer is in shape, Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales reported better than expected, U.S.A. recovery is in the way, European economy is out of recession officially with 0.8% GDP growth, Japan is in recession but Abe is calling for election and delaying sales tax increase for 18 months, a good earnings season and the catalyzer U.S.A. election.
There is no more important economic news until December and we will have a nice Thanksgiving next week.
Dear traders and investors, do not forget that we got almost 9% correction in October generated by the geopolitical backdrop, European recesion, etc. The formidable bounce up of the stock market is showing us what the market is anticipating for the next 6 to 9 months. We have to analyze the coming inflation and how it is going to affect the market. We are going to work on it. For the moment market has to consolidate over S&P 2050, if that, next target and we will see is SP2,100 before the year end otherwise we will get a moderated correction looking for bull-bear battlefield to define market's direction in the short term.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,705 Prior all-time record high
DJ Support: 17,525 - 17,500
17,411 Strong
17,278 September's peak
16,990
16,588 Strong 2013's peak
16,320 Strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
S&P did new all-time record high at SP2056. I expected SP2050 for Thanksgiving and we got it one week in advance with this strong bull market.
DJIA and S&P are riding in unknown territories. The new DJIA short term range is DJ17,500 - 17,735.71.
The steep last four Weeks's spike is extremely bullish for medium and long term. Every week DJIA closed higher than previous. This is a strong bullish sign because it means that buyers are coming and bears are losing the fight with them.
The three indexes are in bullish mood, we should watch others like S&P400 or Russell 2000 because they can act as ballast if they don't have the same movement.
Next target for DJIA should be DJ18,000 and SP2,100. Technical analysis indicates a clearly bullish direction supported by a strong positive momentum.
Click over the charts to enlarge them
Fundamentals:
These markets are driven up by the last U.S.A. economic news like the consumer is in shape, Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales reported better than expected, U.S.A. recovery is in the way, European economy is out of recession officially with 0.8% GDP growth, Japan is in recession but Abe is calling for election and delaying sales tax increase for 18 months, a good earnings season and the catalyzer U.S.A. election.
There is no more important economic news until December and we will have a nice Thanksgiving next week.
Dear traders and investors, do not forget that we got almost 9% correction in October generated by the geopolitical backdrop, European recesion, etc. The formidable bounce up of the stock market is showing us what the market is anticipating for the next 6 to 9 months. We have to analyze the coming inflation and how it is going to affect the market. We are going to work on it. For the moment market has to consolidate over S&P 2050, if that, next target and we will see is SP2,100 before the year end otherwise we will get a moderated correction looking for bull-bear battlefield to define market's direction in the short term.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 12 de noviembre de 2014
Dow Jones new all-time record high
DJ Resistance: 17,638 New all-time record high
DJ Support: 17,411 Prior all-time record high
17,278 Light last 8 days low
16,990 Strong
16,588 Strong 2013's peak
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) broke up its all-time record high and its scenery is bullish.
First support at DJ17,411 and next at DJ17,278. Those levels are important to target new historical highs.
DJIA and S&P have done new all-time record high and NASDAQ COMPOSITE did its fourteen years high. The three indexes are supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The market didn't rest and the election acted as an upward catalyzer.
The trend in the medium and short term is solidly to the upside.
If the "V Reversal" is confirmed this time, the target would be DJ18,600.
The S&P way is clearly to the SP2050 before the year's end and DJIA should try DJ18,000. The NASDAQ Composite looks for its all-time high.
Technical analysis indicates enough space to continue to the upside.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
I have explained about the U.S. recovery and the weakness in the rest of the world, the positive expectations for the European Central Bank possible intervention to stimulate the economy, and so on.
We are going to see a correction, markets needs 10% at least to get honest stock prices in the new market reality, but when?
Not for the moment. I was wrong in my speculation of hectic days (they have been meet and continue), rest (this not accomplished), and Thanksgiving rally.
The stock market is in a fueled momentum to the upside, then let's go with the tide!
S&P 2050 is a target before year's end.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
DJ Support: 17,411 Prior all-time record high
17,278 Light last 8 days low
16,990 Strong
16,588 Strong 2013's peak
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) broke up its all-time record high and its scenery is bullish.
First support at DJ17,411 and next at DJ17,278. Those levels are important to target new historical highs.
DJIA and S&P have done new all-time record high and NASDAQ COMPOSITE did its fourteen years high. The three indexes are supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The market didn't rest and the election acted as an upward catalyzer.
The trend in the medium and short term is solidly to the upside.
If the "V Reversal" is confirmed this time, the target would be DJ18,600.
The S&P way is clearly to the SP2050 before the year's end and DJIA should try DJ18,000. The NASDAQ Composite looks for its all-time high.
Technical analysis indicates enough space to continue to the upside.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
I have explained about the U.S. recovery and the weakness in the rest of the world, the positive expectations for the European Central Bank possible intervention to stimulate the economy, and so on.
We are going to see a correction, markets needs 10% at least to get honest stock prices in the new market reality, but when?
Not for the moment. I was wrong in my speculation of hectic days (they have been meet and continue), rest (this not accomplished), and Thanksgiving rally.
The stock market is in a fueled momentum to the upside, then let's go with the tide!
S&P 2050 is a target before year's end.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 4 de noviembre de 2014
New record highs technical and clearly bullish
DJ Resistance: 17,411 All-time record high
DJ Support: 17,330
17,279.94 Prior all-time record close
17,152 July's peak
16,990 Strong
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850
Technical Analysis:
DJIA has bounced up getting new all-time record high. This last up move has approximately 1,550 points from its low and it took three weeks.
It seems that the market needs to rest but the result of the elections could catalyze it.
The short term small range is DJ17,330 - 17,411 and the stabilization area is DJ16,990 - 17,411. DJIA has to fight and overcome its resistance, if it fails we are going to face a selloff, But DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are technically bullish. The DJ16,990 support violation should be considered as a possibility for a correction.
The long term uptrend is still in place. Personally I expect to get S&P2050 this year.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
The result of the elections and this week important economic news as unemployment on Friday are going to play into the market's direction.
As I commented in the last weeks the U.S.A. economy is doing well but EU, China, India, Brazil and some Asian countries like Japan are in a weak mode. This could weigh in the U.S.A activity for example the trade deficit grew last months due the decreasing exports to EU, it was because the feeble European consumption. The strength of Germany relies on exports not in its internal consumption.
Dear traders and investors, the Friday unemployment figures are going to rule the markets. What could we expect? I think some hectic days, then some rest of the markets and Thanksgiving rally. This is my own speculation. At the beginning of 2014 I told you my expectations to see this year S&P1,900 and very possible S&P2000. Those goals are accomplished and there is more room. Nothing is written.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
DJ Support: 17,330
17,279.94 Prior all-time record close
17,152 July's peak
16,990 Strong
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850
Technical Analysis:
DJIA has bounced up getting new all-time record high. This last up move has approximately 1,550 points from its low and it took three weeks.
It seems that the market needs to rest but the result of the elections could catalyze it.
The short term small range is DJ17,330 - 17,411 and the stabilization area is DJ16,990 - 17,411. DJIA has to fight and overcome its resistance, if it fails we are going to face a selloff, But DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are technically bullish. The DJ16,990 support violation should be considered as a possibility for a correction.
The long term uptrend is still in place. Personally I expect to get S&P2050 this year.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
The result of the elections and this week important economic news as unemployment on Friday are going to play into the market's direction.
As I commented in the last weeks the U.S.A. economy is doing well but EU, China, India, Brazil and some Asian countries like Japan are in a weak mode. This could weigh in the U.S.A activity for example the trade deficit grew last months due the decreasing exports to EU, it was because the feeble European consumption. The strength of Germany relies on exports not in its internal consumption.
Dear traders and investors, the Friday unemployment figures are going to rule the markets. What could we expect? I think some hectic days, then some rest of the markets and Thanksgiving rally. This is my own speculation. At the beginning of 2014 I told you my expectations to see this year S&P1,900 and very possible S&P2000. Those goals are accomplished and there is more room. Nothing is written.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 29 de octubre de 2014
What a bounce!
DJ Resistance: 17,354.54 All-time record high
17,279.94 All-time record close
17,152 Breakdown point July peak
17,015
DJ Support: 16,850 Light
16,730
16,650 Important
16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200 DMA approx.
16,450
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The bounce up and the permanence of Dow Jones Index Average over DJ16,588 offer a possibly brilliant fourth trimester.
We have to pay attention every moment to DJ16,015 because it means that in this important level buyers where attracted by the market and they battled the sellers.
Please watch on the first chart, hourly, the positive trend line in the last ten days. It comes from the recent low DJ15,850. This line shows a strong support, the trend direction and besides the supports in the short term frame.
The other chart shows the big picture where it is clear that the DJ has to stay over DJ16,588 to think about to achieve new historic high before the end of the year. It is also clear that negative short term resistance (green line) is broken which is positive for the stock market.
DJIA is the weakest between the three indexes. The all three are supported right know for the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages. DJ is again over DJ16,588 the 2013 peak. The market continues to strengthen but if it not penetrate its resistances we could easily get a down reverse.
The three indexes are pointing up and technically they are ready to visit its historical record high. Let's watch how they fight with the resistances.
The bull market from February 2009 is still in place.
Please, click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
As I have mentioned the U.S. economy is in a positive path instead there are some doubts about the economy in the European Union (UE), China, Japan, emerging markets like Brazil, and so on.
Wednesday FOMC meting will be determinant for the markets. FED has to decide if the last trance QE will finish, 15 billion, or it will last for some time more due the last three weeks correction.
Personally I think the end of the QE will sent a strong message to the markets that the economy is in a solid way and FED trust it. It could be the catalyzer to attempt the record high. Other way if the QE lasts, the market is going to interpret that the interest rates will stay low for at least two trimesters more. That is a good signal for the stock market. I think that the interest rates are going to stay in the actual levels until the end of 2015. Why? The labor market is improving but the jobs quality is not the same as it was before 2008. Then, there is not the possibility for wages increase consequently inflation will be controlled among other factors.
Dear traders and investors keep cool today until 2 o'clock.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,279.94 All-time record close
17,152 Breakdown point July peak
17,015
DJ Support: 16,850 Light
16,730
16,650 Important
16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200 DMA approx.
16,450
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The bounce up and the permanence of Dow Jones Index Average over DJ16,588 offer a possibly brilliant fourth trimester.
We have to pay attention every moment to DJ16,015 because it means that in this important level buyers where attracted by the market and they battled the sellers.
Please watch on the first chart, hourly, the positive trend line in the last ten days. It comes from the recent low DJ15,850. This line shows a strong support, the trend direction and besides the supports in the short term frame.
The other chart shows the big picture where it is clear that the DJ has to stay over DJ16,588 to think about to achieve new historic high before the end of the year. It is also clear that negative short term resistance (green line) is broken which is positive for the stock market.
DJIA is the weakest between the three indexes. The all three are supported right know for the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages. DJ is again over DJ16,588 the 2013 peak. The market continues to strengthen but if it not penetrate its resistances we could easily get a down reverse.
The three indexes are pointing up and technically they are ready to visit its historical record high. Let's watch how they fight with the resistances.
The bull market from February 2009 is still in place.
Please, click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
As I have mentioned the U.S. economy is in a positive path instead there are some doubts about the economy in the European Union (UE), China, Japan, emerging markets like Brazil, and so on.
Wednesday FOMC meting will be determinant for the markets. FED has to decide if the last trance QE will finish, 15 billion, or it will last for some time more due the last three weeks correction.
Personally I think the end of the QE will sent a strong message to the markets that the economy is in a solid way and FED trust it. It could be the catalyzer to attempt the record high. Other way if the QE lasts, the market is going to interpret that the interest rates will stay low for at least two trimesters more. That is a good signal for the stock market. I think that the interest rates are going to stay in the actual levels until the end of 2015. Why? The labor market is improving but the jobs quality is not the same as it was before 2008. Then, there is not the possibility for wages increase consequently inflation will be controlled among other factors.
Dear traders and investors keep cool today until 2 o'clock.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 22 de octubre de 2014
Dow jones closed over its breakout
DJ Resistance: 17,354.54 All-time record high
17,279.94 All-time record close
17,152 Breakdown point
17,015
16,900 50 days moving average
16,775 1 Year Positive Trend line, 20DMA
DJ Support: 16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200DMA
16,320 Strong April low
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
Market run down directly until it got its strong support at DJ16, 015 and hence it has made a spectacular bounce up. Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded DJ16, 588, 2013 peak and 200 days moving average, which means that the index is in stabilization area. We have to pay attention if the index stays over that level to continue stabilizing.
Fundamentals:
The U.S. earnings season and the rumor, that the European Central Bank is going to buy private bonds to introduce more liquidity into the market to avoid disinflation, are driven the market to the upside.
Just Monday October 19th, was the 1987 crash anniversary but this time the DJIA went up forming a clear candlestick hammer. It make me happy because I remembered those terrible days in 1987 when investors tried to sell their positions.
The earnings season as catalyzer has supported the market and turned it up. There are a lot of complications in the world economy, U.S.A. is doing well but not the European Union, China, Japan nor emerging markets. Geopolitical is heavy. Then, I think the market is going to be volatile and going to the up and downside.
Dear traders and investors, we are still in October and market participants are very superstitious, we are not navigating in calm waters. Therefore, probably we are going to face extreme movements in the next days. The important is DJIA to stay over DJ16,588 for the stabilization and to have chances for the Thanksgiving Rally.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,279.94 All-time record close
17,152 Breakdown point
17,015
16,900 50 days moving average
16,775 1 Year Positive Trend line, 20DMA
DJ Support: 16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200DMA
16,320 Strong April low
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
Market run down directly until it got its strong support at DJ16, 015 and hence it has made a spectacular bounce up. Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded DJ16, 588, 2013 peak and 200 days moving average, which means that the index is in stabilization area. We have to pay attention if the index stays over that level to continue stabilizing.
The market is almost repeating the September-October 2013
pattern. You can see it in the 2 years daily chart.
DJIA penetrated DJ16, 015 support twice but immediately
bounced up and closed the trading day over that level. The closing of the day
is very important to analyse the bounce up and to check the damage in the
charts. That means that the DJIA actually attracted buyers in the indicated
support.
The trend in the short term is still to the downside and in
the long run the bull market is still in play.
Please click over te chart to enlarge itFundamentals:
The U.S. earnings season and the rumor, that the European Central Bank is going to buy private bonds to introduce more liquidity into the market to avoid disinflation, are driven the market to the upside.
Just Monday October 19th, was the 1987 crash anniversary but this time the DJIA went up forming a clear candlestick hammer. It make me happy because I remembered those terrible days in 1987 when investors tried to sell their positions.
The earnings season as catalyzer has supported the market and turned it up. There are a lot of complications in the world economy, U.S.A. is doing well but not the European Union, China, Japan nor emerging markets. Geopolitical is heavy. Then, I think the market is going to be volatile and going to the up and downside.
Dear traders and investors, we are still in October and market participants are very superstitious, we are not navigating in calm waters. Therefore, probably we are going to face extreme movements in the next days. The important is DJIA to stay over DJ16,588 for the stabilization and to have chances for the Thanksgiving Rally.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 15 de octubre de 2014
Serious Technical Breakdown
DJ Resistance: 17,350,54 All-time record high
17,279.94 All-time closing high
17,152 Breakout point
17,015
16,755 Positive 1year trend line broken
16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200 days MA
16,463 Light but important
DJ Support: 16,273.64 Strong Tuesday's low
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
What a reverse!
The damage caused by the downdraft movement is very serious and severe for DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ Composite indexes. The DJIA is the weakest right now.
Technically, I could read a correction considering the breakdown of the 200 days moving average, the 2013 peak at DJ16,588 and the 16 months positive trend line (watch 1 year daily chart) but the very strong support at DJ16,015 is still in play.
To stabilize DJIA, it needs to come over DJ16,588 and stay over it.
I don't expect a bounce up and get a market recovery. The damage shows that the market is reversing and buyers were battled by sellers in the technical levels (please watch volume). I conclude that the market is pointing to the downside and needs the buyers come back to confront the sellers. We are in a war right now and we are going to be witness of several battles.
The third quarter earnings season is going to drive the market direction, not the figures but the investor's interpretation of them.
The risk is to the downside but long term bull market is still in place.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
U.S.A. economy is recovering, not doubt about it. I will name some arguments to support the recovery which is positive for U.S. equities:
-GDP is growing over 2% and seems stronger.
-Bank lending is loose for corporations and individuals.
-Interest rates are low, the ten years bond interest rates has decreased from 3% p.a. at the beginning of the year to 2.4% p.a.
-Oil prices are coming down, gas prices should decrease then individuals will have more buying power.
-Labor market shows slow but constantly improvements.
-Household balance sheet are becoming better. Rising equities and house prices help them.
The confrontation comes from the European Union weak GDP, unemployment, austerity. Lower Germany's GDP expectations. The Chinese GDP below 7%. The India and emerging markets weakness like Brazil.
I think that all these arguments have triggered the stock market downdraft movement besides the geopolitical events. Geopolitical is playing hard in the markets.
Dear traders and investors, it seems that the market is not going to stabilize in few days, instead we are going to have volatile movements. This volatility is dangerous because the risk is to the downside. Please, apply the discipline and stay stick with your plan. It is very easy to lose money with this kind of volatility.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,279.94 All-time closing high
17,152 Breakout point
17,015
16,755 Positive 1year trend line broken
16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200 days MA
16,463 Light but important
DJ Support: 16,273.64 Strong Tuesday's low
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
What a reverse!
The damage caused by the downdraft movement is very serious and severe for DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ Composite indexes. The DJIA is the weakest right now.
Technically, I could read a correction considering the breakdown of the 200 days moving average, the 2013 peak at DJ16,588 and the 16 months positive trend line (watch 1 year daily chart) but the very strong support at DJ16,015 is still in play.
To stabilize DJIA, it needs to come over DJ16,588 and stay over it.
I don't expect a bounce up and get a market recovery. The damage shows that the market is reversing and buyers were battled by sellers in the technical levels (please watch volume). I conclude that the market is pointing to the downside and needs the buyers come back to confront the sellers. We are in a war right now and we are going to be witness of several battles.
The third quarter earnings season is going to drive the market direction, not the figures but the investor's interpretation of them.
The risk is to the downside but long term bull market is still in place.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
U.S.A. economy is recovering, not doubt about it. I will name some arguments to support the recovery which is positive for U.S. equities:
-GDP is growing over 2% and seems stronger.
-Bank lending is loose for corporations and individuals.
-Interest rates are low, the ten years bond interest rates has decreased from 3% p.a. at the beginning of the year to 2.4% p.a.
-Oil prices are coming down, gas prices should decrease then individuals will have more buying power.
-Labor market shows slow but constantly improvements.
-Household balance sheet are becoming better. Rising equities and house prices help them.
The confrontation comes from the European Union weak GDP, unemployment, austerity. Lower Germany's GDP expectations. The Chinese GDP below 7%. The India and emerging markets weakness like Brazil.
I think that all these arguments have triggered the stock market downdraft movement besides the geopolitical events. Geopolitical is playing hard in the markets.
Dear traders and investors, it seems that the market is not going to stabilize in few days, instead we are going to have volatile movements. This volatility is dangerous because the risk is to the downside. Please, apply the discipline and stay stick with your plan. It is very easy to lose money with this kind of volatility.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 7 de octubre de 2014
Negative scenery
DJ Resistance: 17,350.64 All-time record high
17,279.94 All-time closing high
17,152 Prior breakout point
16,935 50 Days moving average
DJ Support: 16,674 Thursday low
16,588 Strong (2013 peak), 200 DMA
16,355 Strong (August low)
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
What a market reverse!
First and foremost I would like to say sorry because I could not be with you last week. I had to bring my mother to the hospital, thanks God all is ok!
The damage inflicted in the charts by this reverse is serious. To erase it, the benchmarks should come over September's low DJIA16,935, S&P1,978 and NASDAQ Composite 4,480.
The three benchmarks are below their 50 days moving average which is negative.
Please watch in the daily chart the negative trend line that works as resistance for DJIA. The 200 days moving average has worked as an excellent support for the DJIA in the last year and now should do the same, let's see it!
The market is in a bearish mood in the short term, this time the supports points drew sellers and they battled the buyers. The hunter bargains will appear, when and what level at?
The bull market is still in place in the long-run, please watch the 10 years weekly chart. There is a clear positive trend channel and inside it you can watch the important minor supports as positive trend lines in red.
We are facing an important reverse, especially in October, but the trend in the long-run is up.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The U.S.A. economy is doing well. We are entering in the fourth earnings season of the year. What worries me is the quality of the new jobs created in the last months. They are not the same as they used to be until 2008. It affects the consumption. We know that the U.S. corporations are doing good money. The countries in the European Union are fighting against the disinflation and deflation, it is a big issue for the recovery. FMI announced today its expectation for the rest of 2014 and 2015, they are not very encouraging http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2014/10/07/c4ee2050a389c5db818cb0b1acc4a9e1.pdf. FMI is asking for more reforms to the European countries and to fight against deflation in a more convinced way. Its world expectations became lower than the last report.
All these and especially the geopolitical issues have attempt against the recovery and have been the trigger for the reverse. We cannot speak right now about a correction.
In my opinion these markets need a correction over ten percent to get a positive path without obstacles. The February last one was eight percent.
Trading: Regularly October is a positive month until the end of the second and maybe third week. Then the market relaxes, don't forget the 1987 and 1929 crises, investors are superstitious. The next up move is in November, the Thanksgiving rally. This pattern doesn't work every year but is valid.
Dear traders and investors, I suggest you to trade in the next fifteen days through your charts base. The bull market is still in place but there is a lot of space for a big correction and the geopolitical environment, the Russian ruble, the Argentinian debt, European small growth, Chinese growth below 7%, etc. weigh on the market. Please keep cool!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,279.94 All-time closing high
17,152 Prior breakout point
16,935 50 Days moving average
DJ Support: 16,674 Thursday low
16,588 Strong (2013 peak), 200 DMA
16,355 Strong (August low)
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
What a market reverse!
First and foremost I would like to say sorry because I could not be with you last week. I had to bring my mother to the hospital, thanks God all is ok!
The damage inflicted in the charts by this reverse is serious. To erase it, the benchmarks should come over September's low DJIA16,935, S&P1,978 and NASDAQ Composite 4,480.
The three benchmarks are below their 50 days moving average which is negative.
Please watch in the daily chart the negative trend line that works as resistance for DJIA. The 200 days moving average has worked as an excellent support for the DJIA in the last year and now should do the same, let's see it!
The market is in a bearish mood in the short term, this time the supports points drew sellers and they battled the buyers. The hunter bargains will appear, when and what level at?
The bull market is still in place in the long-run, please watch the 10 years weekly chart. There is a clear positive trend channel and inside it you can watch the important minor supports as positive trend lines in red.
We are facing an important reverse, especially in October, but the trend in the long-run is up.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The U.S.A. economy is doing well. We are entering in the fourth earnings season of the year. What worries me is the quality of the new jobs created in the last months. They are not the same as they used to be until 2008. It affects the consumption. We know that the U.S. corporations are doing good money. The countries in the European Union are fighting against the disinflation and deflation, it is a big issue for the recovery. FMI announced today its expectation for the rest of 2014 and 2015, they are not very encouraging http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2014/10/07/c4ee2050a389c5db818cb0b1acc4a9e1.pdf. FMI is asking for more reforms to the European countries and to fight against deflation in a more convinced way. Its world expectations became lower than the last report.
All these and especially the geopolitical issues have attempt against the recovery and have been the trigger for the reverse. We cannot speak right now about a correction.
In my opinion these markets need a correction over ten percent to get a positive path without obstacles. The February last one was eight percent.
Trading: Regularly October is a positive month until the end of the second and maybe third week. Then the market relaxes, don't forget the 1987 and 1929 crises, investors are superstitious. The next up move is in November, the Thanksgiving rally. This pattern doesn't work every year but is valid.
Dear traders and investors, I suggest you to trade in the next fifteen days through your charts base. The bull market is still in place but there is a lot of space for a big correction and the geopolitical environment, the Russian ruble, the Argentinian debt, European small growth, Chinese growth below 7%, etc. weigh on the market. Please keep cool!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 23 de septiembre de 2014
New high and fall back. Economics or Geopolitical?
DJ Resistance: 17,350.64 All-time record high
17,279,74 All-time closing high
17,152 Prior breakout point
DJ Support: 16,980
16,935 Strong
16,743 Very strong (May peak)
16,588 Strong (2013 peak)
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P have gotten a new historical high last week and they have pulled in. This reverse have worked the last three sessions.
DJIA should support between DJ16,980 to 16,935 and has the bullish consolidation range DJ16,935 - 17,152. For S&P the bullish range consolidation is SP1,971 - 2011. This time DJIA is stronger technically than S&P and NASDAQ Composite.
The market is consolidating, the medium term trend is to the upside. Stay firmly long over DJ16,935.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
The fundamental scenario is similar to the last fifteen days. Let's say the current U.S.A. economic data has being strong, European Union is still weak and signore Draghi is ready to stimulate the Economies and Monday's Chinese growth fears were overdone with the September China's manufacturing surprise improvement.
The geopolitical scenario is worst with the new military activity in the Middle East. The status among Ukraine, Russia, U.S.A., E.U. and NATO is lighter than fifteen days ago, of course, there is always the latent danger of the resumption of hostilities.
Dear traders and investors, I am still optimistic with the stock market because the trend is clear to me and I know that the worst month of the year about profitability is September, August is about trading due hollidays that reduce the volume. I think that the catalyzer that market needs is the September non-farm payroll and unemployment figures.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,279,74 All-time closing high
17,152 Prior breakout point
DJ Support: 16,980
16,935 Strong
16,743 Very strong (May peak)
16,588 Strong (2013 peak)
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P have gotten a new historical high last week and they have pulled in. This reverse have worked the last three sessions.
DJIA should support between DJ16,980 to 16,935 and has the bullish consolidation range DJ16,935 - 17,152. For S&P the bullish range consolidation is SP1,971 - 2011. This time DJIA is stronger technically than S&P and NASDAQ Composite.
The market is consolidating, the medium term trend is to the upside. Stay firmly long over DJ16,935.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
The fundamental scenario is similar to the last fifteen days. Let's say the current U.S.A. economic data has being strong, European Union is still weak and signore Draghi is ready to stimulate the Economies and Monday's Chinese growth fears were overdone with the September China's manufacturing surprise improvement.
The geopolitical scenario is worst with the new military activity in the Middle East. The status among Ukraine, Russia, U.S.A., E.U. and NATO is lighter than fifteen days ago, of course, there is always the latent danger of the resumption of hostilities.
Dear traders and investors, I am still optimistic with the stock market because the trend is clear to me and I know that the worst month of the year about profitability is September, August is about trading due hollidays that reduce the volume. I think that the catalyzer that market needs is the September non-farm payroll and unemployment figures.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 17 de septiembre de 2014
Wednesday: market waits for FOMC
DJ Resistance: 17,167 All-time record high
17,138 All-time record closing high
DJ Support: 16,980 Strong (breakout)
16,935 Strong 50 days moving average
16,743 Very strong (May peak)
16,588 Strong (2013 peak)
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA is consolidating in its range DJ16,980 - 17,167. The temporary break down of the range support did a small index damage but the chart formation is still bullish and well supported by 50, 200 days moving average and the one year positive trend line support. That means that sellers were not attracted at DJ16,980. The picture is almost the same for the S&P which broke down support at SP1,990.
Right now DJIA is the leader of the three indexes and needs to get a new record high and close over.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The U.S.A. economy is on the recovery path. Important economic news are coming but the most is about the FED because we don't know how the economy will react without the extra stimulus. Market stability is based on low interest rates and we don't know if the bond interest rate will climb. Personally, I expect the continuation of low interest rates until the end of the next year. That is my expectation but it is not for granted, we have to see how the market evolves. Said that, we have to watch the FED policy changes and how it will affect the bond interest rates and consequently the stock market.
Dear traders and investors, this Wednesday ends September FOMC. All the market will focus on the statement at 2:00 o'clock. Possible, Mrs. Yellen will comment about the FED's exit plan. I am optimistic with the stock market because the unemployment is going better not at the level we need but has improved, the corporations are healthy and have cash, that means that interest rates can stay at the lowest levels. The comsumptions has to increase to support growth. Let's meet at 2:00 P.M.!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,138 All-time record closing high
DJ Support: 16,980 Strong (breakout)
16,935 Strong 50 days moving average
16,743 Very strong (May peak)
16,588 Strong (2013 peak)
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA is consolidating in its range DJ16,980 - 17,167. The temporary break down of the range support did a small index damage but the chart formation is still bullish and well supported by 50, 200 days moving average and the one year positive trend line support. That means that sellers were not attracted at DJ16,980. The picture is almost the same for the S&P which broke down support at SP1,990.
Right now DJIA is the leader of the three indexes and needs to get a new record high and close over.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The U.S.A. economy is on the recovery path. Important economic news are coming but the most is about the FED because we don't know how the economy will react without the extra stimulus. Market stability is based on low interest rates and we don't know if the bond interest rate will climb. Personally, I expect the continuation of low interest rates until the end of the next year. That is my expectation but it is not for granted, we have to see how the market evolves. Said that, we have to watch the FED policy changes and how it will affect the bond interest rates and consequently the stock market.
Dear traders and investors, this Wednesday ends September FOMC. All the market will focus on the statement at 2:00 o'clock. Possible, Mrs. Yellen will comment about the FED's exit plan. I am optimistic with the stock market because the unemployment is going better not at the level we need but has improved, the corporations are healthy and have cash, that means that interest rates can stay at the lowest levels. The comsumptions has to increase to support growth. Let's meet at 2:00 P.M.!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 9 de septiembre de 2014
Reconfirmation of the breaks in August?
DJ Resistance: 17,161.55 All-time record high
17,138 All-time record closing high
DJ Support: 17,010 Light
16,980 Strong ( breakout)
16,743 Very Strong May peak
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA is fighting with its resistance at the all-time record high. This level is the battle field for bulls and bears. DJ is lagging S&P and NASDAQ Composite. Both of them need the DJIA to overcome its resistance to get green light for new record highs. Other way DJIA could weigh the market to the down side and avoid this opportunity to trip in the new record territories. That is the reason I told you that the market needs in September to reconfirm the August break outs.
DJIA is still in the bullish range consolidation DJ16,980 (breakout watch daily chart) - 17,161.55 (all-time record high).
20, 50 and 200 days moving averages are pointing up and supports the blue-chip benchmark.
S&P bullish range consolidation over its breakout is SP1,990 - 2,011 (all-time record high).
Despite the supports testing, the market trend is to the upside.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is actually recovering, maybe markets need more speed. The problem in U.S.A. and E.U. is the unemployment, they need jobs with good quality. More jobs well paid will growth the consumption then the activity is going to increase, the corporations are going to be healthier and the government is going to cash more taxes.
We are facing important economic news, Last Friday non-farm payroll was disappointed but in general, news are positive for the economy. China sent a good one this week with its exports new record high.
In my opinion, rates are going to stay low for a year at least. The FED knows it, and they are not going to kill the recovery. In general terms the inflation is controlled. I am not supporting my fundamentals view because I think September has to confirm what we got in August to aspire the continuation of the bull market.
Dear traders and investors, my concerns is about the confirmation the August break outs to be sure that the bulls can fight in the market resistances attracting buyers in those levels.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,138 All-time record closing high
DJ Support: 17,010 Light
16,980 Strong ( breakout)
16,743 Very Strong May peak
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA is fighting with its resistance at the all-time record high. This level is the battle field for bulls and bears. DJ is lagging S&P and NASDAQ Composite. Both of them need the DJIA to overcome its resistance to get green light for new record highs. Other way DJIA could weigh the market to the down side and avoid this opportunity to trip in the new record territories. That is the reason I told you that the market needs in September to reconfirm the August break outs.
DJIA is still in the bullish range consolidation DJ16,980 (breakout watch daily chart) - 17,161.55 (all-time record high).
20, 50 and 200 days moving averages are pointing up and supports the blue-chip benchmark.
S&P bullish range consolidation over its breakout is SP1,990 - 2,011 (all-time record high).
Despite the supports testing, the market trend is to the upside.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is actually recovering, maybe markets need more speed. The problem in U.S.A. and E.U. is the unemployment, they need jobs with good quality. More jobs well paid will growth the consumption then the activity is going to increase, the corporations are going to be healthier and the government is going to cash more taxes.
We are facing important economic news, Last Friday non-farm payroll was disappointed but in general, news are positive for the economy. China sent a good one this week with its exports new record high.
In my opinion, rates are going to stay low for a year at least. The FED knows it, and they are not going to kill the recovery. In general terms the inflation is controlled. I am not supporting my fundamentals view because I think September has to confirm what we got in August to aspire the continuation of the bull market.
Dear traders and investors, my concerns is about the confirmation the August break outs to be sure that the bulls can fight in the market resistances attracting buyers in those levels.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 3 de septiembre de 2014
Bullish sentiment at the September beginning
DJ Resistance: 17,153.80 All-time record high
17,138 All-time record closing high
17,100
DJ Support: 17,020
16,980 Strong
16,743 Strong May peak
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
NASDAQ Composite is the leader now with S&P. They have breakout their resistances. S&P got a new record high last week and the NASDAQ composite a new one in the last fourteen years. DJIA is lagging but fighting with its resistance.
The new consolidation bullish range is DJ16,980 - 17,153.80. And as it fights with resistance, the higher probabilities for the bulls. If DJ17,020 and DJ16,980 will support that would mean that those level do not attract sellers but buyers. The bull-bear battle would be on DJ17,153.80 for the DJIA. S&P and NASDAQ Composite have broken through that level equivalent.
September is beginning with a bull trend, it could be longer bull trend. As the market is overbought and August is a hard month, the market has to reconfirm during September the August breakout and bullish trend.
Plerase click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is in a recovery mood, economy news support that. For example two Tuesday's good news: U.S. Manufacturing Index climbed to three year high in August and U.S. Construction Spending jumped 1.8% in July, both more than expected. The market expects low rates for at least in the next 10 months. Europe has recovery but very weak, it needs a lot more steam.
Geopolitical is unstable specially Ukraine with Russia behind. NATO is organizing its position, U.S.A. is the leader but we don't know exactly what are they going to do in front of Russia expansionist move. In the Middle East ISIS is a big problem, does U.S.A will go back to Iraq and this time to Syria?. Finally there is a cease-fire with an agreement between Palestine and Israel for the Gaza Strip, the bill is for U.S.A tax payers and Israel has substracted 400 hectares from Palestine as a compensation for the last complications.
Dear traders and investors, in my opinion we have to pay attention about the reconfirmation of the positive stock market move during August. That would be more important for the markets than the geopolitical situations. However geopolitical plays a lot on the financial markets, we should not neglect these factors.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,138 All-time record closing high
17,100
DJ Support: 17,020
16,980 Strong
16,743 Strong May peak
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
NASDAQ Composite is the leader now with S&P. They have breakout their resistances. S&P got a new record high last week and the NASDAQ composite a new one in the last fourteen years. DJIA is lagging but fighting with its resistance.
The new consolidation bullish range is DJ16,980 - 17,153.80. And as it fights with resistance, the higher probabilities for the bulls. If DJ17,020 and DJ16,980 will support that would mean that those level do not attract sellers but buyers. The bull-bear battle would be on DJ17,153.80 for the DJIA. S&P and NASDAQ Composite have broken through that level equivalent.
September is beginning with a bull trend, it could be longer bull trend. As the market is overbought and August is a hard month, the market has to reconfirm during September the August breakout and bullish trend.
Plerase click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is in a recovery mood, economy news support that. For example two Tuesday's good news: U.S. Manufacturing Index climbed to three year high in August and U.S. Construction Spending jumped 1.8% in July, both more than expected. The market expects low rates for at least in the next 10 months. Europe has recovery but very weak, it needs a lot more steam.
Geopolitical is unstable specially Ukraine with Russia behind. NATO is organizing its position, U.S.A. is the leader but we don't know exactly what are they going to do in front of Russia expansionist move. In the Middle East ISIS is a big problem, does U.S.A will go back to Iraq and this time to Syria?. Finally there is a cease-fire with an agreement between Palestine and Israel for the Gaza Strip, the bill is for U.S.A tax payers and Israel has substracted 400 hectares from Palestine as a compensation for the last complications.
Dear traders and investors, in my opinion we have to pay attention about the reconfirmation of the positive stock market move during August. That would be more important for the markets than the geopolitical situations. However geopolitical plays a lot on the financial markets, we should not neglect these factors.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 26 de agosto de 2014
S&P touched 2,000 points
DJ Resistance: 17,153.80 All-time record high
17, 138 All-time record closing high
DJ Support: 17,070 Light (hourly)
16,980 Hourly
16,743 Strong May peak
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The S&P has reversed its August first week down move with a rally to the SP2,005. What's more, this up move have formed a "Bullish V-Shaped Reversal" which is almost confirmed with the S&P closing at SP2,000. DJIA had done the same movement but it is still lagging, S&P is the leader. DJ "V-shaped rebound" from August first days is forming a possible "V-Shaped Reversal" but it is not yet confirmed. For that, DJIA needs to close several days over today's historical record high DJ17,153.80. What does it mean? DJIA could do 750 points in new record territory, the target should be DJ17,900 and for the S&P 60 more points at least.
200 days moving average and the one year positive trend line work as excellent supports for the DJ.
S&P and DJIA show its uptrend very clearly and the potential for an up move with nice rewards.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
Economy and corporations are doing well. U.S home prices increased 1% in June and U.S. Durable-goods orders jumped 26% in July on Boeing contracts. We are still getting some positive corporate earnings results. Recovery is on track.
August is not an easy month, watching the chart from 80 years ago until now, August is more positive than negative and better than other months. I would suggest to confirm this August rally in September or October because we could get easily a market reverse this month and due to volume is also faltering.
Dear traders and investors, at the beginning of 2014 I indicated that we were going to see S&P at 1,900 and very probably SP2,000. We have gotten both of them. I am surprised since I expected to be there in October or November as latest. That shows how hard is to work in the financial markets, economy is a social science not a mathematical. I am still with the bulls, I need to asses the stock market prices in September to clarify my mind.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17, 138 All-time record closing high
DJ Support: 17,070 Light (hourly)
16,980 Hourly
16,743 Strong May peak
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The S&P has reversed its August first week down move with a rally to the SP2,005. What's more, this up move have formed a "Bullish V-Shaped Reversal" which is almost confirmed with the S&P closing at SP2,000. DJIA had done the same movement but it is still lagging, S&P is the leader. DJ "V-shaped rebound" from August first days is forming a possible "V-Shaped Reversal" but it is not yet confirmed. For that, DJIA needs to close several days over today's historical record high DJ17,153.80. What does it mean? DJIA could do 750 points in new record territory, the target should be DJ17,900 and for the S&P 60 more points at least.
200 days moving average and the one year positive trend line work as excellent supports for the DJ.
S&P and DJIA show its uptrend very clearly and the potential for an up move with nice rewards.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
Economy and corporations are doing well. U.S home prices increased 1% in June and U.S. Durable-goods orders jumped 26% in July on Boeing contracts. We are still getting some positive corporate earnings results. Recovery is on track.
August is not an easy month, watching the chart from 80 years ago until now, August is more positive than negative and better than other months. I would suggest to confirm this August rally in September or October because we could get easily a market reverse this month and due to volume is also faltering.
Dear traders and investors, at the beginning of 2014 I indicated that we were going to see S&P at 1,900 and very probably SP2,000. We have gotten both of them. I am surprised since I expected to be there in October or November as latest. That shows how hard is to work in the financial markets, economy is a social science not a mathematical. I am still with the bulls, I need to asses the stock market prices in September to clarify my mind.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 19 de agosto de 2014
Geopolitical still in play but lighter
DJ Resistance: 17,151.57 All-time record high
17,130 All-time record closing high
16,970 Former breakout
DJ Support: 16,856 50 days moving average
16,743 Strong May peak
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The 200 days moving average supported very well last week and the market bounced up. This reconfirms the indicator's importance when it is trending. This support coincided with the year positive trend line, please watch the one year daily chart.
DJ has overcome its 50 days moving average on Tuesday which strengths its perspective to the upside. If the DJ penetrates DJ16,970 (former breakout) it could attempt its all-time record closing high.
The up movement of the S&P and the NASDAQ Composite's breakout doing 14 year high put the market in a bullish way, the DJ is lagging both indexes.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
DJ corrected about 3% before last bounce up.
The jobless claims increased to 311,000 last Thursday and Walmart announced lower earnings for the rest of the year.
Earnings season is almost gone but the earnings were enough strong to show health in the corporations environment. The 66% of the corporations in the S&P have announced better earnings than analyst's expectation. That shows an evident growth. Corporation's sales are in a good shape because they are higher 4% than a year ago and that explains that the earnings come from them and not from saving costs.
Interest rates are low and there are not inflation's expectations for the short term. For the long term there is not a clear picture after the FED is going to stop buying bonds.
Earnings, low interest and the controlled inflation are fueling the stock prices. I expect an interest rates movement after the FED stops bond buying. That doesn't mean that interest rates are going to increase immediately because wages are not increasing.
Dear traders and investors, we know that American corporations are healthy and are plenty of cash. In the other hand the investors are expecting an increase in the interest rates. We have to watch the interest rates behavior after the FED finishes the bond buying. I am still bullish.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,130 All-time record closing high
16,970 Former breakout
DJ Support: 16,856 50 days moving average
16,743 Strong May peak
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,355 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The 200 days moving average supported very well last week and the market bounced up. This reconfirms the indicator's importance when it is trending. This support coincided with the year positive trend line, please watch the one year daily chart.
DJ has overcome its 50 days moving average on Tuesday which strengths its perspective to the upside. If the DJ penetrates DJ16,970 (former breakout) it could attempt its all-time record closing high.
The up movement of the S&P and the NASDAQ Composite's breakout doing 14 year high put the market in a bullish way, the DJ is lagging both indexes.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
DJ corrected about 3% before last bounce up.
The jobless claims increased to 311,000 last Thursday and Walmart announced lower earnings for the rest of the year.
Earnings season is almost gone but the earnings were enough strong to show health in the corporations environment. The 66% of the corporations in the S&P have announced better earnings than analyst's expectation. That shows an evident growth. Corporation's sales are in a good shape because they are higher 4% than a year ago and that explains that the earnings come from them and not from saving costs.
Interest rates are low and there are not inflation's expectations for the short term. For the long term there is not a clear picture after the FED is going to stop buying bonds.
Earnings, low interest and the controlled inflation are fueling the stock prices. I expect an interest rates movement after the FED stops bond buying. That doesn't mean that interest rates are going to increase immediately because wages are not increasing.
Dear traders and investors, we know that American corporations are healthy and are plenty of cash. In the other hand the investors are expecting an increase in the interest rates. We have to watch the interest rates behavior after the FED finishes the bond buying. I am still bullish.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 12 de agosto de 2014
Geopolitical
DJ Resistance: 17,151.57 All-time record high
17,130 All-time closing high
16,877
16,743 Strong May peak
16,588 Strong last year peak
17,130 All-time closing high
16,877
16,743 Strong May peak
16,588 Strong last year peak
DJ Support: 16,362 200 Days moving average
16,333.78 Last week low
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
Last week the 200 days moving averages supported de Dow Jones Index Averages at about DJ16,340 please watch the Daily Chart. Technically this is good for the Dow Jones because this indicator is respected by the market. The problem as I see is that the DJIA is still below DJ16,588 (last year peak). It has to overcome at least DJ16,588 resistance to look for stabilization. It is better to overcome DJ16,743 (May peak).
We have to pay attention to the volume. It decreased in the last two sessions.
The market shifted trend in the short term with the breakdown in the July last days but the trend is still up in the long term (watch the one year daily chart).
I expect to clear you with this panoramic vue. August is not an easy month to navigate and it is very probably that we are going to get hectic movements in the next four weeks due the low volume. It is not necesary deeper technical analysis.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
Geopolitical is heavy and press the market. The market is expecting important July economic news this and next week.
Investors are worried about inflation. The ten years bond is paying 2.42% p.a. which means that market is not expecting a rates hike by the Federal Reserve otherway it would be over 3% and maybe 5%. These low rates are excellent for the stock market and we could think about an uptrend of the stock market for the rest of the year.
Investors fears a correction due the last five years bull market. I agree with them in some moment we are going to see sells in the market. But for that we need to realise an increase in the ten year bond rate approaching to its rate average over 5% p.a.
Dear traders and investors, market fears a correction that would be very positive for the stock market. At this moment the facts are more for the upside although the short term trend but we are in the "Summer Doldrums" and we have to be alert to deal with any kind of movement.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
Ulises
martes, 5 de agosto de 2014
Dow Jones technically bearish
DJ Resistance: 17,151.57 All-time record high
17,130 All-time closing high
16,877
16,743 Strong May peak
16,588 Strong last year peak
16,450 Light
DJ Support: 16,370 Light
16,343 Strong 50 days MA
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The breakout DJ16,743 and DJ16,580 to the downside that we have witnessed from last Thursday put the DJIA in a bearish mood. Bears battled bulls in those levels which means presence of a lot of sellers. The technically damages are heavy in the picture.
The positive trend line coming during the last six months is broken but the last five years and one year positive trend lines are still in play.
DJIA needs to overcome DJ16,743 or at least DJ16,588 to stabilize.
The last six days volume is acceptable, let's say normal and we got a considerable downside movement.
You can realize the importance of 50 days moving average, once broke the indicator acting as support the index came down (watch 1 year daily chart).
The trend in the short term is to the downside.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
We are in August, difficult month, and waiting for important economic news this and next week. Earnings season is still alive.
The geopolitical, corporate earnings and the possibility for a rate hike played heavy against the market. The current setback is important and could indicate the trend in the short term. What has impressed me is the presence of sellers in the technical levels which is the only explanation for the breakouts. It shows a tidy market pointing down in the short term.
Dear traders and investors, August is a difficult month for trading, we are at the beginning of the "Summer Doldrums". Let's see if the DJIA and the other two index could get stabilization. We have to be prepared for the typical erratic movement in August. The historical data shows August as a good month to get profitability, the problem is that it is easy to make mistakes due to the nature of this month. Keep calm and cool!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,130 All-time closing high
16,877
16,743 Strong May peak
16,588 Strong last year peak
16,450 Light
DJ Support: 16,370 Light
16,343 Strong 50 days MA
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The breakout DJ16,743 and DJ16,580 to the downside that we have witnessed from last Thursday put the DJIA in a bearish mood. Bears battled bulls in those levels which means presence of a lot of sellers. The technically damages are heavy in the picture.
The positive trend line coming during the last six months is broken but the last five years and one year positive trend lines are still in play.
DJIA needs to overcome DJ16,743 or at least DJ16,588 to stabilize.
The last six days volume is acceptable, let's say normal and we got a considerable downside movement.
You can realize the importance of 50 days moving average, once broke the indicator acting as support the index came down (watch 1 year daily chart).
The trend in the short term is to the downside.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
We are in August, difficult month, and waiting for important economic news this and next week. Earnings season is still alive.
The geopolitical, corporate earnings and the possibility for a rate hike played heavy against the market. The current setback is important and could indicate the trend in the short term. What has impressed me is the presence of sellers in the technical levels which is the only explanation for the breakouts. It shows a tidy market pointing down in the short term.
Dear traders and investors, August is a difficult month for trading, we are at the beginning of the "Summer Doldrums". Let's see if the DJIA and the other two index could get stabilization. We have to be prepared for the typical erratic movement in August. The historical data shows August as a good month to get profitability, the problem is that it is easy to make mistakes due to the nature of this month. Keep calm and cool!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 30 de julio de 2014
Next Friday: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls
DJ Resistance: 17,151.56 All-time record high
17,130
17,055
DJ Support: 16,877 Monday's low, 50 days moving average
16,805 Strong
16,743 Very strong May peak
16,580 Strong
16,343 Very strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The S&P did a new record high at SP1,991, the DJIA did not. That means that DJ is weaker than S&P right now. Watch the S&P like the leader looking for the SP2,000.
The market is still consolidating in the range (DJ16,743 - 17,130).
The 50 days moving average acts and acted in the year to date chart as excellent support which is bullish for the blue-chip benchmark.
The DJIA scenery is positive and shows the uptrend.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is showing recovery. The proof of that is the bunch of latest constructive economic figures and positive earnings season.
This and next week, the market is going to receive important economic news to sustain the recovery besides the corporate earnings. You can watch the list like ADP employment, GDP, personal income, consumer spending, consumer sentiment and so on. The most relevant would be on Friday: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls. All of them could be the catalyzers for attempt new record highs.
Dear traders and investors, "Summer Rally" time is finished. This week and next, we could see an up move but I don't expect an explosion. I think that August could be a very boring month and very difficult to navigate in the market because the risk of a correction is going to be present during all the "Summer Doldrums". Geopolitical issues are heavy and they could trigger confrontations. The market volume is going to decrease and easily we could be in front of hectic movements. This kind of volatility is not good for trading. I suggest you to take some rest in the next six weeks. I think we will lose hair this "Summer Doldrums", nothing is written, we'll see and we'll trade accordingly to the signals and market trend. We are going to work more with fundamentals next month.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,130
17,055
DJ Support: 16,877 Monday's low, 50 days moving average
16,805 Strong
16,743 Very strong May peak
16,580 Strong
16,343 Very strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The S&P did a new record high at SP1,991, the DJIA did not. That means that DJ is weaker than S&P right now. Watch the S&P like the leader looking for the SP2,000.
The market is still consolidating in the range (DJ16,743 - 17,130).
The 50 days moving average acts and acted in the year to date chart as excellent support which is bullish for the blue-chip benchmark.
The DJIA scenery is positive and shows the uptrend.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is showing recovery. The proof of that is the bunch of latest constructive economic figures and positive earnings season.
This and next week, the market is going to receive important economic news to sustain the recovery besides the corporate earnings. You can watch the list like ADP employment, GDP, personal income, consumer spending, consumer sentiment and so on. The most relevant would be on Friday: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls. All of them could be the catalyzers for attempt new record highs.
Dear traders and investors, "Summer Rally" time is finished. This week and next, we could see an up move but I don't expect an explosion. I think that August could be a very boring month and very difficult to navigate in the market because the risk of a correction is going to be present during all the "Summer Doldrums". Geopolitical issues are heavy and they could trigger confrontations. The market volume is going to decrease and easily we could be in front of hectic movements. This kind of volatility is not good for trading. I suggest you to take some rest in the next six weeks. I think we will lose hair this "Summer Doldrums", nothing is written, we'll see and we'll trade accordingly to the signals and market trend. We are going to work more with fundamentals next month.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 22 de julio de 2014
One week more
DJ Resistance: 17,152 All-time record high
DJ Support: 17,040 Light Tuesday's low
16,971 Strong
16,805 Strong
16,743 Very strong May peak
16,580 Very strong
16,312 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) got new all-time record high. Its scenery is stronger than S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE.
The DJ supported at its preceding breakout DJ16,971 on last Thursday, Friday and Monday, days with geopolitical pressure: Ukraine- Russia. Technically it confirms that we are in a consolidation phase and the trend is to the upside (watch the daily and 15 minutes chart).
Regularly, when the market is trending and stop consolidating, once the consolidation finishes it continues on the trend that brought before. It is to the upside in the near term.
The market's action is bullish. The S&P target is SP2,000. DJIA is very well supported by 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
Please click on the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
Economic news and corporate earnings that we are getting are in generally positive and constructive as we have expected. I expect them to continue to be good in the next days. They show the market uptrend path.
Dear traders and investors, this week we are going to be short in words, I have explained all the points for this uptrend in the previous blog actualizations. I ask you to navigate with the charts this July last week because we are in a very technical time. This is the "Summer Rally" and it should last until next week. I expect to see new records high and possible the S&P very near to SP2,000. August comes with the "Summer Doldrums", the volume decreases because the senior traders take holidays and participants can move the market easily. August can be boring and we could be surprised with the volatility. I suggest you to take some rest to be ready for the fight in the last four months of the year. The trend is up based on technical analysis and fundamentals and the market is in unknown territories, do not forget it!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
DJ Support: 17,040 Light Tuesday's low
16,971 Strong
16,805 Strong
16,743 Very strong May peak
16,580 Very strong
16,312 Strong
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) got new all-time record high. Its scenery is stronger than S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE.
The DJ supported at its preceding breakout DJ16,971 on last Thursday, Friday and Monday, days with geopolitical pressure: Ukraine- Russia. Technically it confirms that we are in a consolidation phase and the trend is to the upside (watch the daily and 15 minutes chart).
Regularly, when the market is trending and stop consolidating, once the consolidation finishes it continues on the trend that brought before. It is to the upside in the near term.
The market's action is bullish. The S&P target is SP2,000. DJIA is very well supported by 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
Please click on the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
Economic news and corporate earnings that we are getting are in generally positive and constructive as we have expected. I expect them to continue to be good in the next days. They show the market uptrend path.
Dear traders and investors, this week we are going to be short in words, I have explained all the points for this uptrend in the previous blog actualizations. I ask you to navigate with the charts this July last week because we are in a very technical time. This is the "Summer Rally" and it should last until next week. I expect to see new records high and possible the S&P very near to SP2,000. August comes with the "Summer Doldrums", the volume decreases because the senior traders take holidays and participants can move the market easily. August can be boring and we could be surprised with the volatility. I suggest you to take some rest to be ready for the fight in the last four months of the year. The trend is up based on technical analysis and fundamentals and the market is in unknown territories, do not forget it!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
Suscribirse a:
Entradas (Atom)