New high and fall back. Economics or Geopolitical?

DJ Resistance:   17,350.64  All-time record high
                            17,279,74  All-time closing high
                            17,152       Prior breakout point


DJ Support:       16,980
                            16,935      Strong
                            16,743      Very strong (May peak)
                            16,588      Strong (2013 peak)
                            16,355      Strong
                            16,015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P have gotten a new historical high last week and they have pulled in. This reverse have worked the last three sessions.
DJIA should support between DJ16,980 to 16,935 and has the bullish consolidation range DJ16,935 - 17,152. For S&P the bullish range consolidation is SP1,971 - 2011. This time DJIA is stronger technically than S&P and NASDAQ Composite.
The market is consolidating, the medium term trend is to the upside. Stay firmly long over DJ16,935.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The fundamental scenario is similar to the last fifteen days. Let's say the current U.S.A. economic data has being strong, European Union is still weak and signore Draghi is ready to stimulate the Economies and Monday's Chinese growth fears were overdone with the September China's manufacturing surprise improvement.
The geopolitical scenario is worst with the new military activity in the Middle East. The status among Ukraine, Russia, U.S.A., E.U. and NATO is lighter than fifteen days ago, of course, there is always the latent danger of the resumption of hostilities.
Dear traders and investors, I am still optimistic with the stock market because the trend is clear to me and I know that the worst month of the year about profitability is September, August is about trading due hollidays that reduce the volume. I think that the catalyzer that market needs is the September non-farm payroll and unemployment figures.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Wednesday: market waits for FOMC

DJ Resistance:  17,167    All-time record high
                           17,138    All-time record closing high

DJ Support:      16,980    Strong (breakout)
                           16,935    Strong 50 days moving average
                           16,743    Very strong (May peak)
                           16,588    Strong (2013 peak)
                           16,355    Strong
                           16,015    Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is consolidating in its range DJ16,980 - 17,167. The temporary break down of the range support did a small index damage but the chart formation is still bullish and well supported by 50, 200 days moving average and the one year positive trend line support. That means that sellers were not attracted at DJ16,980. The picture is almost the same for the S&P which broke down support at SP1,990.
Right now DJIA is the leader of the three indexes and needs to get a new record high and close over.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
The U.S.A. economy is on the recovery path. Important economic news are coming but the most is about the FED because we don't know how the economy will react without the extra stimulus. Market stability is based on low interest rates and we don't know if the bond interest rate will climb. Personally, I expect the continuation of low interest rates until the end of the next year. That is my expectation but it is not for granted, we have to see how the market evolves. Said that, we have to watch the FED policy changes and how it will affect the bond interest rates and  consequently the stock market.
Dear traders and investors, this Wednesday ends September FOMC. All the market will focus on the statement at 2:00 o'clock. Possible, Mrs. Yellen will comment about the FED's exit plan. I am optimistic with the stock market because the unemployment is going better not at the level we need but has improved, the corporations are healthy and have cash, that means that interest rates can stay at the lowest levels. The comsumptions has to increase to support growth. Let's meet at 2:00 P.M.!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises
                         

Reconfirmation of the breaks in August?

DJ Resistance:  17,161.55 All-time record high
                           17,138      All-time record closing high

DJ Support:      17,010     Light
                           16,980     Strong ( breakout)
                           16,743     Very Strong May peak
                           16,588     Strong 2013 peak
                           16,355     Strong
                           16,015     Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA is fighting with its resistance at the all-time record high. This level is the battle field for bulls and bears. DJ is lagging S&P and NASDAQ Composite. Both of them need the DJIA to overcome its resistance to get green light for new record highs.  Other way DJIA could weigh the market to the down side and avoid this opportunity to trip in the new record territories. That is the reason I told you that the market needs in September to reconfirm the August break outs.
DJIA is still in the bullish range consolidation DJ16,980 (breakout watch daily chart) - 17,161.55 (all-time record high).
20, 50 and 200 days moving averages are pointing up and supports the blue-chip benchmark.
S&P bullish range consolidation over its breakout is SP1,990 - 2,011 (all-time record high).
Despite the supports testing, the market trend is to the upside.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is actually recovering, maybe markets need more speed. The problem in U.S.A. and E.U. is the unemployment, they need jobs with good quality. More jobs well paid will growth the consumption then the activity is going to increase, the corporations are going to be healthier and the government is going to cash more taxes.
We are facing important economic news, Last Friday non-farm payroll was disappointed but in general, news are positive for the economy. China sent a good one this week with its exports new record high.
In my opinion, rates are going to stay low for a year at least. The FED knows it, and they are not going to kill the recovery. In general terms the inflation is controlled. I am not supporting my fundamentals view because I think September has to confirm what we got in August to aspire the continuation of the bull market.
Dear traders and investors, my concerns is about the confirmation the August break outs to be sure that the bulls can fight in the market resistances attracting buyers in those levels.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Bullish sentiment at the September beginning

DJ Resistance: 17,153.80   All-time record high
                           17,138       All-time record closing high
                           17,100

DJ Support:       17,020
                           16,980      Strong
                           16,743      Strong May peak
                           16,588      Strong 2013 peak
                           16,355      Strong
                           16,015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
NASDAQ Composite is the leader now with S&P. They have breakout their resistances.  S&P got a new record high last week and the NASDAQ composite a new one in the last fourteen years. DJIA is lagging but fighting with its resistance.
The new consolidation bullish range is DJ16,980 - 17,153.80. And as it fights with resistance, the higher probabilities for the bulls. If DJ17,020 and DJ16,980 will support that would mean that those level do not attract sellers but buyers. The bull-bear battle would be on DJ17,153.80 for the DJIA. S&P and NASDAQ Composite have broken through that level equivalent.
September is beginning with a bull trend, it could be longer bull trend. As the market is overbought and August is a hard month, the market has to reconfirm during September the August breakout and bullish trend.
Plerase click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is in a recovery mood, economy news support that. For example two Tuesday's good news:  U.S. Manufacturing Index climbed to three year high in August and U.S. Construction Spending jumped 1.8% in July, both more than expected. The market expects low rates for at least in the next 10 months. Europe has recovery but very weak, it needs a lot more steam.
Geopolitical is unstable specially Ukraine with Russia behind. NATO is organizing its position, U.S.A. is the leader but we don't know exactly what are they going to do in front of Russia expansionist move. In the Middle East ISIS is a big problem, does U.S.A will go back to Iraq and this time to Syria?. Finally there is a cease-fire with an agreement between Palestine and Israel for the Gaza Strip, the bill is for U.S.A tax payers and Israel has substracted 400 hectares from Palestine as a compensation for the last complications.

Dear traders and investors, in my opinion we have to pay attention about the reconfirmation of the positive stock market move during August. That would be more important for the markets than the geopolitical situations. However geopolitical plays a lot on the financial markets, we should not neglect these factors.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises