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miércoles, 12 de diciembre de 2018

Bounce up or continue the descent?

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high
                           26,277       November high
                           26,000       December high
                           25,382       50 Days moving average
                           25,111       200 Days moving average
                           24,989       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 Peak
                           24,719       2017 Close
                         
DJ Support:      24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250
                           23,173       Gap upper side
                           23,002       Gap down side

Technical Analysis:
There are three important support in the consolidation range DJ23,250 - 26,824.78, they are DJ24,000, 23,500 and 23,250. Is the index bouncing up from the December downdraft? It is clear that DJIA reversed from 7 months low. DJIA broke down the important supports DJ24,719 (2017 close) and DJ24,876 (2017 peak), they have became resistants now.
The great volatility in the markets are expressed in 2,099 downdraft points in DJIA in five sessions from December peak.
One day reversal from December low is not enough.
The mud and long term bias is bearish right know but the three indexes are above their important supports and still in their consolidation ranges.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market is plenty of concerns and they weigh in it. Uncertainty is the hell for the financial markets, capitals are cowards, they fly immediately to safe havens.
We are living with political concerns in all the globe.
UK prime ministers is in dificults about the Brexit-deal vote, the UK pound became weaker.
La France, Ms. Le President Emmanuel Macron had to reverse his decisions about the gas tax. The yellow-gillets have created problems for about 0.5% of the PBI of the country.
China's Huawei CFO, Whanzhou Meng, is detaned in a Canadian prison. U.S.A. claims her to be prosecuted by the bans on doing business with Iran.
December 21st. is the budget deadline and there is a risk of a shutdown.

The  strength of the U.S.A. economy is a reality, it is working with an excellent steam and we expect positive 2019 gains.

Dear traders and investors, all the political concerns has to pass and the economy will be in play. I a still positive withe the stock market and I expect a nice stock market in the next year. Be calm and cool, have control on your emotions. Don't be nervous with the late pullback.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises