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viernes, 1 de febrero de 2019

DJIA just over 2017 Peak

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high
                           26,277       November high
                           26,000       December high
                           25,098

DJ Support:      24,992       200 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 High
                           24,812       Gap upper side
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,619       Gap down side
                           24,250
                           24,238       20 Days moving average
                           24,232       50 Days moving average
                           23,779
                           23,500
                           22,636
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
It is difficult to read the chart because the very strong support DJ23,250 was broken then the damage in the chart is serious. The quick bounce counteracts the steep fall during December 2018.
Also, it is very positive that DJIA has slept over the DJ24,876 (2017 high) and DJ24,719 (2017 close). They became important supports now and pay attention of them because they are inflection points.
The last trimester was volatile and the downside movement faded with a supported, stable and ordered rebound.
DJIA is trying to re-establish its range.
November low DJ24,286 is an excellent support and the index has slept over it in eight consecutive sessions which is bullish in the short term or at least shows stability. Also, the 50 days moving average acts as strong support at DJ24,232.
The short-term and the intermediate-term are bullish. The November and December damages are clearly in the charts and the quick rebound neutralizes them.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
Geopolitical drove the volatile markets on November and December. This last one was the worst in decades conversely January was the best in 32 years with the DJIA up 7.17%, S&P 7.87& and NASDAQ Composite 9.74%.
Fed took an accommodative stance with regards on the interest rates hike, in addition the optimism on the trade war U.S.A.-China (considerable progress, March 1st. is the deadline), excellent employment figures 304,000 new jobs and the rate at 4%, rising economy and sturdy corporate earnings should drive the markets to the upper side of the range.
We are in the meddle of earning season and the corporations, in general, are doing well.

Dear traders and investors, I am very sorry because I couldn't actualize the block due another project, I didn't have the time. I am still optimistic with the stock market but November and December correction were an excellent lesson about politics and geopolitical. As always i try to show mi analysis and conclusions in the more simpler way to simplify the understanding.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises