DJIA just over 2017 Peak

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high
                           26,277       November high
                           26,000       December high
                           25,098

DJ Support:      24,992       200 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 High
                           24,812       Gap upper side
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,619       Gap down side
                           24,250
                           24,238       20 Days moving average
                           24,232       50 Days moving average
                           23,779
                           23,500
                           22,636
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
It is difficult to read the chart because the very strong support DJ23,250 was broken then the damage in the chart is serious. The quick bounce counteracts the steep fall during December 2018.
Also, it is very positive that DJIA has slept over the DJ24,876 (2017 high) and DJ24,719 (2017 close). They became important supports now and pay attention of them because they are inflection points.
The last trimester was volatile and the downside movement faded with a supported, stable and ordered rebound.
DJIA is trying to re-establish its range.
November low DJ24,286 is an excellent support and the index has slept over it in eight consecutive sessions which is bullish in the short term or at least shows stability. Also, the 50 days moving average acts as strong support at DJ24,232.
The short-term and the intermediate-term are bullish. The November and December damages are clearly in the charts and the quick rebound neutralizes them.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Geopolitical drove the volatile markets on November and December. This last one was the worst in decades conversely January was the best in 32 years with the DJIA up 7.17%, S&P 7.87& and NASDAQ Composite 9.74%.
Fed took an accommodative stance with regards on the interest rates hike, in addition the optimism on the trade war U.S.A.-China (considerable progress, March 1st. is the deadline), excellent employment figures 304,000 new jobs and the rate at 4%, rising economy and sturdy corporate earnings should drive the markets to the upper side of the range.
We are in the meddle of earning season and the corporations, in general, are doing well.

Dear traders and investors, I am very sorry because I couldn't actualize the block due another project, I didn't have the time. I am still optimistic with the stock market but November and December correction were an excellent lesson about politics and geopolitical. As always i try to show mi analysis and conclusions in the more simpler way to simplify the understanding.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Bounce up or continue the descent?

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high
                           26,277       November high
                           26,000       December high
                           25,382       50 Days moving average
                           25,111       200 Days moving average
                           24,989       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 Peak
                           24,719       2017 Close
                         
DJ Support:      24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250
                           23,173       Gap upper side
                           23,002       Gap down side

Technical Analysis:
There are three important support in the consolidation range DJ23,250 - 26,824.78, they are DJ24,000, 23,500 and 23,250. Is the index bouncing up from the December downdraft? It is clear that DJIA reversed from 7 months low. DJIA broke down the important supports DJ24,719 (2017 close) and DJ24,876 (2017 peak), they have became resistants now.
The great volatility in the markets are expressed in 2,099 downdraft points in DJIA in five sessions from December peak.
One day reversal from December low is not enough.
The mud and long term bias is bearish right know but the three indexes are above their important supports and still in their consolidation ranges.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market is plenty of concerns and they weigh in it. Uncertainty is the hell for the financial markets, capitals are cowards, they fly immediately to safe havens.
We are living with political concerns in all the globe.
UK prime ministers is in dificults about the Brexit-deal vote, the UK pound became weaker.
La France, Ms. Le President Emmanuel Macron had to reverse his decisions about the gas tax. The yellow-gillets have created problems for about 0.5% of the PBI of the country.
China's Huawei CFO, Whanzhou Meng, is detaned in a Canadian prison. U.S.A. claims her to be prosecuted by the bans on doing business with Iran.
December 21st. is the budget deadline and there is a risk of a shutdown.

The  strength of the U.S.A. economy is a reality, it is working with an excellent steam and we expect positive 2019 gains.

Dear traders and investors, all the political concerns has to pass and the economy will be in play. I a still positive withe the stock market and I expect a nice stock market in the next year. Be calm and cool, have control on your emotions. Don't be nervous with the late pullback.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones corrected after U.S.A. elections

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high
                           26,277
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,805       50 Days moving average
                           25,368       20 Days moving average

DJ Support:      25,112       200 Days moving average
                           25,000       Gap upper side
                           24,876       2017 Peak
                           24,719       2017 Close
                           24,122
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Gap upper side
                           23,002       Gap down side

Technical Analysis:
Rally post-election petered out. DJIA stays over its 200 days moving average (long term indicator) while S&P and NASDAQ Composite have broken these important supports to the downside. S&P reversed from the defined resistance SP2,817.
DJIA did a November high and retraced from that level forming a negative trend line coming from the all-time high at the beginning of October. The chart shows the November high as a lower high which is bearish. This reverse filled the November gap which is constructive in the technical analysis. DJIA needs to be and sleep over the mentioned negative trend line to start to repair charts damages.
Technically is very important in these moments the bottoming of the three indexes. DJIA is the strongest between them.
The market's trend is bearish but with good supports. In the longer term we can say that the three indexes are in a range from January 2018. The DJIA consolidation range is DJ23,250 - 26,824.78.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

  Fundamentals:                     
 Statistics: After the last 18 midterm elections the stock market has increased a weighted of 17 % at the end of one year after them. Beside November and December are very strong months for the stock market after midterm elections.
Producer Price Index-Final demand report was up 0.6% month to month and 2.6% year to year minus Food and Energy.
Consumer Sentiment came at 98.3, it is strong.
The economy looks splendid and there is room until the end of 2019 and maybe more for spectacular corporate results.
The U.S. economy Achilles heel is the deficit. The tax cut should stimulate the economy to get strengthening and specially growth to grab a higher tax collection. The higher tax collection should cover the government loss due the tax cut and bring more economic resources.
Oil prices are plunging, that carries benefits for the consumers but not for the producers and other agents of the economy. It is not helping the stock market.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came at 107.4 which is near its highs.
Volatility is reigning in the day to day market's activity. President Trump domestic fights, international challenges bring uncertainties contribute strongly to volatility. But the economy is dazzling and that will deliver new historic highs to us.

Dear traders and investors, I am still optimistic with the stock market. I still believe that in the corrections is the opportunity to buy cheap and increase the portfolios with excellent prices.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                 

Technicals Leaning

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high (January peak)
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,798       50 Days moving average
                           25,732
                           25,717       20 Days moving average
                           24,992       200 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close

DJ Support:      24,533.19  Wednesday's low
                           24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
These late days have changed the trend in the charts. The short term is bearish but medium and long still are bullish with damages in the chart. S&P and DJIA have violated its 200 days moving average which is bearish.
NASDAQ Composite has done the same and it has lost more than 10%. Correction is considered when the index has lost 20% from the high of the movement, bear market is when the lost is over 20%. Right now, we can speak about a retracement. Until this moment we have not seen a capitulation then one can think that the market was overbought, there was a profit taking and buyers are expecting for opportunities to buy.
Positive trend line (watch the chart) has supported DJIA but today is the first day that the index sleeps below it. The market needs a confirmation of the positive trend line breaking.
We need to see the DJIA behavior during the next days.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

   
  Fundamentals:
 The market again reverses. The S&P has lost all the 2018 gains. In 15 days all those gains were wiped out . The retracement could be wealthy to adjust the prices with the new P/E.

The economy, the corporate earnings (81% of the corporate earnings per share that we have seen during this season are better than expected), employment and consumption are still positive with nice promises. The current earnings look great. Economic data doesn't show sign of pending recession, don't forget that recessions kill the bull markets.
We are witnessing a correction in a long-term bull market, almost 10 years, which has uncertainties about China, trade war, rising rates, nuclear pact with Russia, journalist Khashoggi case with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
There is no capitulation in the market but we have to see the bottom to aspire to have a rebound toward the highs we have seen in the market.

Dear traders and investors, I am still bullish with the market but not steadfastly. It is because my analysis confirms me my expectations. Don't forget that October is very volatile and the market is superstitious due that the crashes occurred on October.

I try as always to express my analysis in the simpler way to facilitate the digestion of the traders and investors.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                   
                         
                         

200 Days MA supported

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old-time high (January peak)
                           26,289       20 Days moving average
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,979       50 Days moving average
                           25,835.35  February high

 DJ Support:     25,835.35  February peak
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,119       200 Days moving average
                           24,900       October low
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
DJIA after have done a new historical high retraced aggressively to just the important support at 200 days moving average and then bounced up. This support is a bull-bear gauge and the bulls are winning.
October low is the three moths low and is the support now.
Next important resistance is DJ25,879 (50 days moving average).
The short-term trend is bearish but midterm is bullish. We have to pay attention to the chart damage, if the DJIA exceeds the 50 days moving average the trend will be bullish again.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:

Earnings season is back and brought buyers generating a rebound after last week retracement. The start of earnings season was very strong.

Uncertainty is still in play due the difference between Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. caused by the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In addition, the trade war with China brings uncertainty. In the European Union the Brexit weights with the Italian budget and the Italian bonds prices. 

The economic news is still positive and promise good results for the corporation and stronger consumption. Industrial Production rose up 0.3%. The lasts economic reports are bullish.

Last week pullback is healthy for the market and it reacted technically and positive with the new earning season. The continuing strength of the economy and the Trump tax reduction are going to impact on the corporation profits like the future stronger consumption. 

Dear traders and investors, I don't take too much of your time, my expectations are a strong economy, excellent business for the corporations, better standard of live for individuals therefore the stock market will look for new historical highs.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones at New Historical High

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time High

DJ Support:      26,760       September peak
                           26,616       January peak
                           26,312       20 Days moving average
                           26,168       August peak
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,908       50 Days moving average
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,082       200 Moving average
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500       Strong
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones did a new all-time high and S&P is within striking distance to do the same. NASDAQ Composite is alike.
Start October, the beginning of the four quarter, shows a bullish trend looking for unknown territories. The near-term inflection point is DJ26,616 January peak. The third week September gap was filled with the DJIA rally promising new all-time highs.
DJIA 20, 50- and 200-days moving average are crossed pointing to the upside which is very bullish and they should give to DJIA good support in the case of retracement. DJIA is behaving technically. The price action is constructive.
The trend of the three benchmark is bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
What a monthly, October, and fourth 2018 quarter start!
What we have seen these two last days is very bullish. This last up move is based in the fabulous economy. We see the historic level of employment, the growth of the economy, fantastic consumer confidence and therefore the corporate earnings with the promise for better results in the future. All these in spite of the trade war uncertainty. Thanks God the TLC was restructured and reconfirmed.
The growth of the economy is accelerating to 3.1% in 2018 after year of 1.5%. It is almost the double.
The Tax cut and deregulation taken by President Trump is rejuvenating the U.S.A. economy.
Dear traders and investors, this bull market have 12 years long, it is a record but this time the promise is "the best is yet to come".

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         

Dow Jones looking for old all-time High

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time High
                           26,435       January gap upper side
                           26,338       January gap downside
                         
DJ Support:      26,000       Strong
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,068       50 Days moving average
                           25,000       200 Days moving average
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500       Strong
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, gap
                           23,002       Strong, gap

Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones has topped August peak at DJ26,168 and is ready to try to close January gap.
S&P is well supported at SP2,873 and the breakout at SP2,873. NASDAQ Composite is the softer but well supported.
DJIA is also well supported by two positive trend lines (please watch the chart). DJIA has formed a bull flag in the last days daring its seven months high.
The September path is bullish and I expect a prompt visit to the DJIA all-time high.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The good economic news was imposed about the uncertainty created by the possible trade war between U.S.A. and China, and U.S.A. and Canada.
Consumer sentiment at 100.8 from last moth 96.2
The Business Inventory report year to year showed that the inventories pace at 4.3% lags the year to year pace for sales at 8.1%.

Dear traders and investors, as I have explained in prior blogs I expect an excellent 2018 second semester. Technical analysis and fundamentals indicated an upward trend: bullish.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises