Dow Jones without a trend during March?

DJ resistance:  16.576,66  All-time closing high
                          16.520
                          16.410

DJ Support:      16.174       November's peak
                          16.122       50 days moving average
                          16.040       Strong
                          15.721       Very strong
                          15.304,23  Strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA and S&P backdrops that we have seeing in the last 10 days are positive showing the possible uptrend. Why? Because DJ backdrops have reconfirmed technical supports at DJ16.174 (November's peak) and DJ16.140 (50 days moving average). Still more, the DJ16.040 was confirmed 8 days ago. The S&P has the same pattern at SP1.850 and SP1.838.
The DJIA over DJ16.040 is positive and keeps the promise to see the all-time high again, below that level this possibility would be negated for a time.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

 Fundamentals:
Dear traders and investors, I am still optimistic with the stock market and I like the long side. At this time we are confronting a lack of conviction for the bulls, they appear only at the technical supports which is positive for the market. They are right because the last economic news are neutral or light positive. For the rest of the week we still have some important news coming. I am sure that economic news for next week are going to act as a catalyzers to move the market. Where? It depends on what they are going to show. Personally, I think we are in a solid recovery, not strong for the moment.
Not too much to comment this week because the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trapped in a range, this is good because is consolidating its advances.
Stay cool and do not lose the discipline, when we have to wait, we wait but always in alert never complacency.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

After the partition of Ukraine

DJ Resistance:  16.576,66  All-time closing high
                            16.520       Strong
                            16.334       Light

DJ Support:        16.174       November's peak
                            16.040       Strong
                            15.721       Very Strong
                            15.340.23  Strong

Technical Analysis:
S&P bounced back from support indicated last week at SP1.839 which is a bullish sign. Next resistance is SP1.868 and all-time high SP1.884.
The DJIA last week backdrop broke down supports and bounced up from well-defined support at DJ16.040 (see last week update). DJ has rallied and closed over DJ November's peak DJ16.174 and 50 days moving average DJ16.140. Tuesday's close was at DJ16.336.19 old short terms support now resistance. Technically it is bullish.
All these show that the uptrend is the path but the last DJ, S&P and NASDAQ backdrops brought some doubts in the short term. Specially why DJIA can not do new highs? If these hesitations continue we are going to find lower lows which shows weakness.
The DJ needs to confirm the uptrend closing over DJ16.576.66 all-time closing high or at least over the strong resistance DJ16.520.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Once again, we have witnessed what really affects the market is the economy not the drums of war. Geopolitical tensions worked last week, after checking the "faits accomplies" by Russia and some applied sanctions by U.S.A., E.U., and Japan the stock market rallied on Monday and Tuesday. Incredible? No, so is the regular pattern. What I want to say is that the tomorrow's decision about the tapering is more important for the stock market psychology than the geopolitical uncertainties.
We have important announcements for Wednesday and Thursday that are going to weight into the markets: current account deficit, FOMC announcement, Yellen press conference, weekly jobless claims, existing home sales, Philly FED, leading economic indicators.
The earnings season is finished, we have to wait until April for the second 2014 earnings season.
I feel the lack of conviction in the market which is acceptable by the weakness in the economy. We need to get more information to determine if it is due to the bad weather. I think corporates are in good conditions. I am not clear with the banks because we don't know exactly their assets. What we know clearly is that they and the government need low interest rates. Can you imagine their debt at 5 or 6 % p.a. or lower prices in the stock market?
Dear traders and investors, according to the technical analysis the stocks are in a bull market. According to fundamentals should be the same but lately we are getting some weak or neutral economic news and the recovery is not strong for the moment.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Technically the market continues bullish

DJ Resistance:     16.576,66 All-time closing high
                               16.520      Strong

DJ Support:           16.334

                                16.174     Strong (November peak)

                                16.040
                                15.721
                                15.340,23

Technical Analysis:

Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P and NASDAQ have done modest pullbacks and technically remain bullish. The big difference is that S&P is supporting over the old new all-time high, and the NASDAQ near its fourteen years high. NASDAQ historical high was done on March 10, 2000. Instead DJIA couldn't overcome its strong resistance at DJ16.520.

DJ backdrop is constructive because supported over old resistance DJ16.250 and November peak DJ16.174 now supports.

DJ needs to confirm its uptrend closing over its all-time closing high at DJ16.576,66.

Moving to the S&P because the DJ is lagging, S&P bottomed on Monday and Tuesday at support SP1.867 its prior all-time high now support. It means that this technical point attracts buyers. The S&P over SP1.848 is bullish, please watch the chart.

Technically, the market continues bullish.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:

On March 2009 the stock market got its bottom after the 2008 crisis or crash as you would call it.

We are getting contradictory economic news like encouraging last week job report against February China's export drop 18.1% from a year early. China's January exports expanded 10.6%. China's activities affect the world commerce, investments, etc.

As I have explained before the DJ got a consolidation phase after January's new all-time high which I considered positive. The stock market  pattern, in the majority of the years, is January good for stocks and weak February and March. It seems to me that the stock market needs more fuel for the new highs and the April earnings season should be the catalyst for that.

We are going to face this week important economic news for the market as retail sales, Producer Price Index (PPI), Core PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Besides, the economy has slowed from last year's fourth quarter maybe due of severe weather or the geopolitical fears. My worry is about the investors' nerves because the profit taking could be ad portas.

The stocks are in good shape but they need a clearly growing economy. We need to clarify if the last slowdown is due to the bad weather.

Dear traders and investors I think that we are going to see SP1.900 and very probably SP2.000 this year. Right now the market needs more steam to look for the Dow Jones Industrial Average new all-time high. Technically the S&P is ready but fundamentally seems to be a different picture since the steam pressure is not enough in the short term.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Geopolitical tension: Ukraine

DJ Resistance:  16.576.66    All-time closing high
                            16.520        Strong

DJ Support:        16.174       November peak and 50 days MA
                            16.040
                            15.721       Very strong
                            15.340.23  Strong

Technical Analysis:
The S&P has gotten a new historical highs, confirmed its uptrend with this and today's closing high.
The market got a sharp pullback on Monday and today bounced up in a clear technical move. The DJIA supported at the November peak and its 50 days moving average (MA) on Monday and recovered the uptrend on Tuesday. Technically speaking the confirmation of these supports opens the way to the strong resistance at DJ16.520. The DJ should follow the S&P and NASDAQ and try new highs.
We are still in front of a bull market, don't forget it.

As commented, DJ lags the S&P. The three indexes are pointing up and should continue in this up move. Te DJ is forming a possibly "V" reversal, five years daily chart, like the S&P.

Conclusion: The DJ backdrop and today's sharp bounce after a consolidation phase put the DJIA in a clear bullish technical uptrend.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We still have important economic news this week like "Beige Book", ADP employment, Productivity, Factory Orders, Non-farm Payroll, Unemployment, Trade Deficit, etc. All of them will impact the market direction.
U.S.A and EU are growing, they need more speed. China's PBI target for 2014 is 7.5% as it was for 2013 and got 7.7% for the year.
Monday's backdrop was due for geopolitical: Ukraine-Russia uncertainties. This is a very sensible problem for the world and a big risk for the markets. Tuesday's bounce was due to the ease of the fears about Russia invasion. Putin ordered to stop the infiltration in Ukraine and the Russia's army stayed in the border, out of Ukraine. Putin maintains the military threat as the last option. These events and positions eased fears and the market bounced. What will happen? No one knows for sure. The market is breathing with the expectation that the geopolitical problems will be resolved positively. Hopefully! Nothing is written.
Dear traders and investors, the DJ continues in its uptrend, watch the five years daily chart. The bull market have not ended, it is still in place.
Not too much to say this week, we have to pay attention to all these events as always.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises