Next Friday: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls

DJ Resistance: 17,151.56 All-time record high
                           17,130
                           17,055

DJ Support:       16,877    Monday's low, 50 days moving average
                           16,805    Strong
                           16,743    Very strong May peak
                           16,580    Strong
                           16,343    Very strong
                           16,015    Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The S&P did a new record high at SP1,991, the DJIA did not. That means that DJ is weaker than S&P right now. Watch the S&P like the leader looking for the SP2,000.
The market is still consolidating in the range (DJ16,743 - 17,130).
The 50 days moving average acts and acted in the year to date chart as excellent support which is bullish for the blue-chip benchmark.
The DJIA scenery is positive and shows the uptrend.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is showing recovery. The proof of that is the bunch of latest constructive economic figures and positive earnings season.
This and next week, the market is going to receive important economic news to sustain the recovery besides the corporate earnings. You can watch the list like ADP employment, GDP, personal income, consumer spending, consumer sentiment and so on. The most relevant would be on Friday: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls. All of them could be the catalyzers for attempt new record highs.
Dear traders and investors, "Summer Rally" time is finished. This week and next, we could see an up move but I don't expect an explosion. I think that August could be a very boring month and very difficult to navigate in the market because the risk of a correction is going to be present during all the "Summer Doldrums". Geopolitical issues are heavy and they could trigger confrontations. The market volume is going to decrease and easily we could be in front of hectic movements. This kind of volatility is not good for trading. I suggest you to take some rest in the next six weeks. I think we will lose hair this "Summer Doldrums", nothing is written, we'll see and we'll trade accordingly to the signals and market trend. We are going to work more with fundamentals next month.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

One week more

DJ Resistance:  17,152     All-time record high

DJ Support:       17,040     Light Tuesday's low
                           16,971     Strong
                           16,805     Strong
                           16,743     Very strong May peak
                           16,580     Very strong
                           16,312     Strong
                           16,015     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) got new all-time record high. Its scenery is stronger than S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE.
The DJ supported at its preceding breakout DJ16,971 on last Thursday, Friday and Monday, days with geopolitical pressure: Ukraine- Russia. Technically it confirms that we are in a consolidation phase and the trend is to the upside (watch the daily and 15 minutes chart).
Regularly, when the market is trending and stop consolidating, once the consolidation finishes it continues on the trend that brought before. It is to the upside in the near term.
The market's action is bullish. The S&P target is SP2,000. DJIA is very well supported by 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
Please click on the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:

Economic news and corporate earnings that we are getting are in generally positive and constructive as we have expected. I expect them to continue to be good in the next days. They show the market uptrend path.

Dear traders and investors, this week we are going to be short in words, I have explained all the points for this uptrend in the previous blog actualizations. I ask you to navigate with the charts this July last week because we are in a very technical time. This is the "Summer Rally" and it should last until next week. I expect to see new records high and possible the S&P very near to SP2,000. August comes with the "Summer Doldrums", the volume decreases because the senior traders take holidays and participants can move the market easily. August can be boring and we could be surprised with the volatility. I suggest you to take some rest to be ready for the fight in the last four months of the year. The trend is up based on technical analysis and fundamentals and the market is in unknown territories, do not forget it!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Dow Jones: bulls are in control

DJ Resistance:  17,120        Record high
                            17,068.26  All-time closing high

DJ Support:        16,985
                            16,805.      Strong
                            16,743       Very strong May peak
                            16,580 - 16,615 Very strong

                            16,312       Strong
                            16,015       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
This Tuesday the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gotten a new record high at DJ17,120. It closed at DJ17,060.68. The S&P is looking for new record high instead.
The DJ scenery is stronger than S&P and NASDAQ Composite. It is clear that DJ is confronting resistances and is going up step by step. Its challenge is to get new record highs and close above its all-time closing high. As DJ stays challenging the resistances the chances for a breakout are imminent.
You can see in the daily chart that de 20 days moving average supported very well, buyers were there. That means that on technical retracement buyers act. It is very positive and constructive for the DJIA.
 The 20, 50 and 200 days moving average point up and should be strong support for the blue-chip benchmark.
The DJIA path is bullish, the trend in the last six months is to the upside.
Pleaase, click over the chat to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
2nd. quarter earnings season and the last economic news in the U.S.A. are positive as we expected. Europe has also improved (watch Spain and UK for example). Today's news about China were positive too. Banks are doing well and that support the market for the moment. Personally, I expect to continue with these positive news during the next ten days that will give fuel to the market to attempt the resistances and possibly find new highs.
Dear traders and investors, not too much to say this time because you have to navigate in these markets technically during the next ten days like an instrument fly. Watch your 5, 15, 60 minutes and daily charts every half hour. I am still positive with the market and expecting to see new highs before the "Summer Doldrums". This is not an interesting game, this is a serious activity. Be professional!

   Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises                     

Summer rally?

DJ Resistance:   17,075        All-time high
                             17,024.21   All-time closing high
                             16,950

DJ Support:         16,818
                             16,743        May peak now strong support
                             16,580        Strong
                             16,312        Strong
                             16,015        Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P did new record highs and the three indexes point up.
The last two days retracement show the consolidation. The new record high breakouts are not followed by powerful follow through as it is regularly. The market is walking in unknown territories step by step.
The first support is at DJ16,818 and the next is at DJ16,743 (May peak)
The three Moving Averages 20, 50 and 200 days point up and support the DJIA.
Technically it is clear to be long over DJ16,743.
Conclusion, The DJIA is consolidating with an upward bias. The trend is clearly up barring a transgression of May peak (DJ16.743).

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market got positive economic news and went to new record highs. I am optimistic with the economic recovery "The latest American employment report leaves little doubt the American jobs machine is back "(The Economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/07/americas-economy?fsrc=scn%2Ftw%2Fte%2Fbl%2Fed%2Fisthistheboom).
I expect also a positive 2nd. quarter earnings season.
But, there is a "but". We have two short term scenarios. The first is to get new records highs fueled by the good shape and finantials results of the American corporations. The second is a correction to shake the stock prices and get solid realistic price levels. It is very possible to get a "Summer rally" in the next three weeks and after that a boring "Summer Doldrums". This year I consider if we have a "Summer rally" it is not going to be a strong up move and during August and September could be the ideal time to sincere the stock prices. What I am telling you is subjective.

Dear traders and investors, I have indicated at the beginning of the year that we were going to see S&P at 1,900 and very probably SP2,000 in 2014. I still expect the SP2,000 but we are facing three months that could be difficult or boring to say the least. I think it is not a bad idea to hedge some positions until September or take profits and enjoy a very nice summer in August to be back renewed at mid-September. As I  have explained I try to assist you in the navigation through theses difficult markets. I will be every week with my commentaries. Think about it!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

To New Highs: unknown territory

DJ Resistance:  16.998.70  All-time record high
                            16.956.07  All-time close high

DJ Support:       16.818
                           16.743       May peak now strong support
                           16.580       Strong
                           16.312       Strong
                           16.015       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are doing an extraordinary performance. DJIA did a new record high but closed just below it. The S&P got a new historical high and closed at that level SP1.979. NASDAQ Composite closed at its best level in fourteen years.
The DJIA has supported in an excellent way at DJ16.743, May peak and breakout level, last Thursday. This bounce up, technically, confirms the technical up trend and it wows to fight to achieve new highs (watch the hourly chart). That means that buyers come in technical levels. We saw new record high today.
Volume increased in the last three sessions that is good for the trading and technical.
The three Moving Averages 20, 50 and 200 days support the uptrend acting.
The trend is clearly up, it is very possible to get a "Summer Rally".

Please click over the charts to enlarge them

Fundamentals:
The last economic news are supportive for the economy or at least neutral.
The markets are going to get important news this short week, Friday is Independence Day: EDP Employment tomorrow, ISM Services, Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payroll for June on Thursday among others like Factory Orders on Wednesday. All of them could catalyzed the markets to a new highs as well as they can trigger the correction.

Dear traders and investors, I feel comfortable with the S&P target to SP2000.-. I would like to avoid typing too much because the path in front of us is clear.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises