S&P touched 2,000 points

DJ Resistance:  17,153.80 All-time record high
                           17, 138      All-time record closing high

DJ Support:       17,070      Light (hourly)
                           16,980      Hourly
                           16,743      Strong May peak
                           16,588      Strong 2013 peak
                           16,355      Strong
                           16,015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The S&P has reversed its August first week down move with a rally to the SP2,005. What's more, this up move have formed a "Bullish V-Shaped Reversal" which is almost confirmed with the S&P closing at SP2,000. DJIA had done the same movement but it is still lagging, S&P is the leader. DJ "V-shaped rebound" from August first days is forming a possible "V-Shaped Reversal" but it is not yet confirmed. For that, DJIA needs to close several days over today's historical record high DJ17,153.80. What does it mean? DJIA could do 750 points in new record territory, the target should be DJ17,900 and for the S&P 60 more points at least.
200 days moving average and the one year positive trend line work as excellent supports for the DJ.
S&P and DJIA show its uptrend very clearly and the potential for an up move with nice rewards.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Economy and corporations are doing well. U.S home prices increased 1% in June and U.S. Durable-goods orders jumped 26% in July on Boeing contracts. We are still getting some positive corporate earnings results. Recovery is on track.
August is not an easy month, watching the chart from 80 years ago until now, August is more positive than negative and better than other months. I would suggest to confirm this August rally in September or October because we could get easily a market reverse this month and due to volume is also faltering.
Dear traders and investors, at the beginning of 2014 I indicated that we were going to see S&P at 1,900 and very probably SP2,000. We have gotten both of them. I am surprised since I expected to be there in October or November as latest. That shows how hard is to work in the financial markets, economy is a social science not a mathematical. I am still with the bulls, I need to asses the stock market prices in September to clarify my mind.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Geopolitical still in play but lighter

DJ Resistance:  17,151.57   All-time record high
                            17,130        All-time record closing high
                            16,970        Former breakout
                         
DJ Support:       16,856        50 days moving average
                            16,743        Strong May peak
                            16,588        Strong 2013 peak
                            16,355        Strong
                            16,015        Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The 200 days moving average supported very well last week and the market bounced up. This reconfirms the indicator's importance when it is trending. This support coincided with the year positive trend line, please watch the one year daily chart.
DJ has overcome its 50 days moving average on Tuesday which strengths its perspective to the upside. If the DJ penetrates DJ16,970 (former breakout) it could attempt its all-time record closing high.
The up movement of the S&P and the NASDAQ Composite's breakout doing 14 year high put the market in a bullish way, the DJ is lagging both indexes.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
DJ corrected about 3% before last bounce up.
The jobless claims increased to 311,000 last Thursday and Walmart announced lower earnings for the rest of the year.
Earnings season is almost gone but the earnings were enough strong to show health in the corporations environment. The 66% of the corporations in the S&P have announced better earnings than analyst's expectation. That shows an evident growth. Corporation's sales are in a good shape because they are higher 4% than a year ago and that explains that the earnings come from them and not from saving costs.
Interest rates are low and there are not inflation's expectations for the short term. For the long term there is not a clear picture after the FED is going to stop buying bonds.
Earnings, low interest and the controlled inflation are fueling the stock prices. I expect an interest rates movement after the FED stops bond buying. That doesn't mean that interest rates are going to increase immediately because wages are not increasing.
Dear traders and investors, we know that American corporations are healthy and are plenty of cash. In the other hand the investors are expecting an increase in the interest rates. We have to watch the interest rates behavior after the FED finishes the bond buying. I am still bullish.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Geopolitical

DJ Resistance:   17,151.57 All-time record high
                   17,130   All-time closing high
                   16,877
                   16,743   Strong May peak
                   16,588   Strong last year peak

DJ Support:         16,362       200 Days moving average

                             16,333.78   Last week low

                             16,015        Very strong

Technical Analysis:

Last week the 200 days moving averages supported de Dow Jones Index Averages at about DJ16,340 please watch the Daily Chart. Technically this is good for the Dow Jones because this indicator is respected by the market. The problem as I see is that the DJIA is still below DJ16,588 (last year peak). It has to overcome at least DJ16,588 resistance to look for stabilization. It is better to overcome DJ16,743 (May peak).

We have to pay attention to the volume. It decreased in the last two sessions.

The market shifted trend in the short term with the breakdown in the July last days but the trend is still up in the long term (watch the one year daily chart).

I expect to clear you with this panoramic vue. August is not an easy month to navigate and it is very probably that we are going to get hectic movements in the next four weeks due the low volume. It is not necesary deeper technical analysis.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:

Geopolitical is heavy and press the market. The market is expecting important July economic news this and next week.

Investors are worried about inflation. The ten years bond is paying 2.42% p.a. which means that market is not expecting a rates hike by the Federal Reserve otherway it would be over 3% and maybe 5%. These low rates are excellent for the stock market and we could think about an uptrend of the stock market for the rest of the year.

Investors fears a correction due the last five years bull market. I agree with them in some moment we are going to see sells in the market. But for that we need to realise an increase in the ten year bond rate approaching to its rate average over 5% p.a.

Dear traders and investors, market fears a correction that would be very positive for the stock market. At this moment the facts are more for the upside although the short term trend but we are in the "Summer Doldrums" and we have to be alert to deal with any kind of movement.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Dow Jones technically bearish

DJ Resistance:     17,151.57    All-time record high
                               17,130         All-time closing high
                               16,877
                               16,743        Strong May peak
                               16,588        Strong last year peak
                               16,450        Light

DJ Support:           16,370        Light
                               16,343        Strong 50 days MA
                               16,015        Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The breakout DJ16,743 and DJ16,580 to the downside that we have witnessed from last Thursday put the DJIA in a bearish mood. Bears battled bulls in those levels which means presence of a lot of sellers. The technically damages are heavy in the picture.
The positive trend line coming during the last six months is broken but the last five years and one year positive trend lines are still in play.
DJIA needs to overcome DJ16,743 or at least DJ16,588 to stabilize.
The last six days volume is acceptable, let's say normal and we got a considerable downside movement.
You can realize the importance of 50 days moving average, once broke the indicator acting as support the index came down (watch 1 year daily chart).
The trend in the short term is to the downside.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
We are in August, difficult month, and waiting for important economic news this and next week. Earnings season is still alive.
The geopolitical, corporate earnings and the possibility for a rate hike played heavy against the market. The current setback is important and could indicate the trend in the short term. What has impressed me is the presence of sellers in the technical levels which is the only explanation for the breakouts. It shows a tidy market pointing down in the short term.
Dear traders and investors, August is a difficult month for trading, we are at the beginning of the "Summer Doldrums". Let's see if the DJIA and the other two index could get stabilization. We have to be prepared for the typical erratic movement in August. The historical data shows August as a good month to get profitability, the problem is that it is easy to make mistakes due to the nature of this month. Keep calm and cool!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises