Bull Case Still in Place

DJ Resistance:  18,289    All-time high
                           18,054    2014 close high

DJ Support:      17,600    Strong
                           17,360    Strong 200 days moving average
                           16,990    Very strong
                           15,854    Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJ17,600 proved that it is a good support. Market tested that level, buyers were attracted and DJIA bounced up. There are not lower lows that is positive and constructive for the bull case
Daily chart shows clearly that investors are buying on the deeps. Volume is high which confirm the support and resistance's action.
March's low is working as an excellent support for DJIA and S&P.
DJ17,600-18,289 is the range for the short term and DJ16,990-18,289 is the consolidation range after the positive movement of the market during October, November and December 2014.
There is solid positive trend line coming from October's low.
Market bias is bullish and technically constructive. This is according to the technical analysis.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

  Fundamentals:
The first trimester ended with a small loss for DJIA. During this time lapse, DJIA got its all-time high (DJ18,289) in February and January and March were negative.
The market is expecting valuable economic news from tomorrow Wednesday. They are very important like ADP employment, non-farm employment, unemployment etc. All these economic news are strong enough to move the market.
Finally, European Central Bank launched quantitative easing (QE), FED is working on when the interest rates should hike, geopolitical is complicated as always with Yemen, Ukraine and Greece with its new government.
Investors in U.S.A. are worried with corporation falling earnings and the sluggish economic growth. The market is still optimistic with the stock market that explains the lack of the market's fall or sell-off.
Dear traders and investors, technical analysis shows a positive bias for the stock market although "sell may and go away". I think that the market will take direction according to the earnings season's results that begins in 10 days. We have to be ready to work hard these next four or five weeks.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                         

Still in the uptrend

DJ Resistance:  18,289     All-time high
                           18,054     All-time close high

DJ Support:      17,820     50 Days Moving Averages
                           17,600     Strong
                           17,350     September high
                           17,278     September close high
                           16,990     Very strong
                           15,854     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
It is not easy to navigate in uncharted territories. The chart formations are clear the bull market is still in place.
The market is in its consolidation range, it last from the last 5 months and it is constructive. Every time it is doing new record highs but it reverses from the uncharted territories. We could think that every 100 new points in the DJIA reverses 400 or 500 points. That means that the market knows the trend is to the upside and the buyers do not continue buying through unknown lands because they fear a reverse. They need a conviction to take risks.
The strong support in the short term is in the 50 days moving average and DJ17,600.
I consider the market is firmly bullish over DJ16,990 in the long term and over DJ17,600 in the short term.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
U.S. economy, interest rates and EU economic recovery make me optimistic with the stock market for 2015. Positive economic news are coming from U.S.A. and European Union (EU). I expect good corporation results in the coming earnings season in April. The quarterly earnings of the corporations could be the catalyzer to bring the stock market to new territories, stay and fly there.
It is clear that the market is asking for a 10% correction to put the stock prices in balance after the last up leg (beginning October 2015). I don't think that we are in time for a strong correction due the 3 facts that I have mentioned in the first line.
Dear traders and investors, financial markets are complicated and hard, my recommendation is to be long and buy on dips. The bull market is still in place, but nothing is written, the markets are dynamics and we have to be prepared to tackle any situation.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,289     All-time high
                           18,054     2014 close high

DJ Support:      17,600     Strong
                           17,350     September high
                           17,278     September close high
                           16,990     Very strong
                           16,588     2013 peak
                           16,320
                           16,015
                           15,854     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA bounced back from one's month low DJ17,627. The support at DJ17,600 was very well defined and it worked correctly. Next target for the bulls is DJ18,054 which correspond to 2014 close high.
Tecnically, DJIA shows a clear positive trend to the new highs and it needs to attract more buyers to break the resistances. The index is well supported by the 50 and 200 days moving averages. The deeper floor in this uptrend is DJ16,990, below this level we could see a temporal reverse.
The picture shows probabilities to the upside if the index stays over DJ16,990.
The consolidation range is DJ16,990-18,289.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement is due out Wednesday. This statement is very important for the next fifteen days. As I have indicated the trend is clear to the upside but DJIA needs more fuel to stay over the new highs and fly in unknown territories. The U.S. dollar strength and the low rates support the stock market besides the good results of the U.S. corporations.
Dear traders and investors, the market is becoming obsessed with the U.S.dollar rate (FX) and the interest rates. What we have seeing in the last days is that stock market goes down if de U.S.Dollar appreciates. If dollar depreciastes,the stock market goes up. These are between a lot of important economic news that you have to consider to get your conclutions. The trend is up and constructive, I insist that the market needs more fuel to continue its up move.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

DJ in Consolidation Range

DJ Resistance: 18,289  All-time high
                          18,053  2014 close high

DJ Support:     17,600   Light
                          17,350   September high
                          17,278   September closing high
                          16,990   Very strong
                          16,588   2013 peak
                          16,320
                          16,015
                          18,854  Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has broken the support at DJ18,053 and strong DJ17,759, besides it closed under its 50 days moving averages. That means that attracted buyers were fought by the sellers although the volume increased.
The consolidation range is DJ16,990-18,289. The six years bull market is still in place, please watch ten years monthly chart. The correction in the consolidation range is good for the stock market. It is necessary DJIA stays over DJ16,990 to look for new highs.
The long and medium term trend is clearly to the upside barring DJ16,990 violation.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

 Fundamentals:
The DJIA did new all-time high and then retraced.
As I have indicated two weeks ago and last week, the market needs more steam to look for new highs. Interest rates are in the debate and the market is reacting too nervous. Actually, I do not expect an increase in the interest rates until September at least. U.S.A. is doing well instead European Union needs.
Investors fear the interest rates increase which put the money more expensive and it affects the stock market. My opinion is that Europe began its QE to stimulate its economy with delay. Just when U.S.A. is leaving the 2008 crisis effects and 10 years bond pays 2.22% p.a. The bund is paying 0.4% p.a., Italy and Spain 1.3% p.a. Let's say less than U.S.A. bonds show is in a better shape. Actually, I agree that the FED is ready to increase the interest rates because the U.S.A. has improved its economy but the competion in the bond market shows that the investors are going to put their money on the American bonds, better rates and quality. Then, how are the interest rates to hike hugely?
Dear traders and investors, I do not fear the FED will increase the interest rates, we should see it as positive because it means that the economy is working well. I am still optimistic with the stock market for this year.
  Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises          

DJ and S&P in New Territories

DJ Resistance:  18,288.63  All-time High

DJ Support:      18,132
                           18,053       2014 closing high
                           17,916
                           17,759       Strong
                           17,350       September high
                           17,278       Strong September closing high
                           16,990       Very strong
                           16,588       2013 peak
                           16,320
                           15,854       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
It seems a consolidation time is necessary according to the technical analysis. Technically short and long term show bias for new historical highs in the tree indexes.
Short term range is DJ18,053 - 18,288.63.
The support of the new range DJ18,053 has been confirmed and it should attract buyers at this level,
DJIA and S&P got new all-time highs and today retraced.
Next targets for NASDAQ COMPOSITE are 5049 and 5,132.52 its historical high in 2,000.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The February unemployment and non-farm payroll coming this Friday could be the catalyzer for the short term movement.
The economist and financial specialists are comenting about negative interest rates. Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden central banks have decreased their interest rates to the negative. That means that the money that sleeps in the bank has to pay instead of receiving interest. The new Swedish bonds have a negative rate. They are a tool to stimulate the economy. The investors do not have a big choice of profitable investments, then the stock market is an excellent alternative because with low interest rates the corporation can win money. The central banks can work through the consumption to put the economy in shape.
Dear traders and investors, it seems to me that the market needs a consolidation period to stabilize its recently record high prices. The big consolidation range is DJ16,990 - 18,288.63 and the short term consolidation range is DJ18,053 to 18,288.63. I expect this consolidation during March however the trend is clearly to the upside.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises