S&P tests its 200 Days MA Support

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 high
                           17,750
                           17,685     200 Days moving average

DJ Support:      17,579      Strong March low, low boundary range
                           16,990-17,050     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
Three indexes have plunged to important supports. S&P has tested 200 days moving average support and is trying to bounce up. DJIA is in a worst backdrop, it has broken its 200 days moving average and is testing the low boundary of the trading range DJ17,579 (4 months low and March low) - 18,351.
This support has worked well and if DJIA breaks up over DJ17,685 (200 days moving average) and DJ17,050 (almost 10 weeks low) we could comment about a stabilization after this plunge.
DJIA is still in the trading range which continues in bullish bias. If the DJ17,579 is broken to the downside we have to put the alert flag because technically it could be a correction time. This support is strong should draw buyers. Pay attention on it.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Grexit weigh in the market although the positive economic news and the next second trimester of earnings season.
Greece is a problem for the European Union. Its default, if it is going to be set aside of EU, if they are going to continue in the Eurozone with the Euro, etc. could affect the financial market in EU. But there is not a direct implications with the U.S.A. economy and corporate earnings then should not be a negative effect on stock market prices. The real problem is how the EU is going to deal if Greece is going to be set aside. The Greeks want to stay in Europe and after the referendum on July 5th. The uncertainty is going to fade.
We could talk long time about implications and solutions for the Greeks and impacts in the U.S.A. stock market but for the moment it is better to wait to the referendum and see what happens.
Dear traders and investors, DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have retraced and are testing strong and important supports, we can get great surprises and I do not rule out to take long positions in these levels. A lot of specialist are changing their minds to the bearish side, it is risky to increase the long positions with Grexit in front of us but I think that the DJIA is going to bounce up to the upper boundary at least once more. High volatility for these days and I expect more sideways trading.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Still Bullish Trend

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout

DJ Support:      18,103     2014 Peak
                           17,925
                           17,699     Last 10 weeks low
                           17,579     Very strong
                           16,990-17,050 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJ17,579-18,351 is the trading range. The support at DJ17,699 (last 10 weeks low) was confirmed twice with solid bounce up.
The S&P and the NASDAQ COMPOSITE did new all-time high, DJIA is lagging. The follow through after new all-time high was light as it is during this year.
The significant next test for the stock market is S&P 2,134.
The sluggish trend is clear to the upside and the market is ready to attempt new record highs. We can get a bearish attempt before earnings season but the market confirmed to be well supported.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
In two weeks earnings season is coming. Grexit is almost out for the moment, EU is analyzing its last proposal and in principle it is considered acceptable because the Greeks have accepted to reform the pension funds (in some professions one could get the retirement at 52 years old) and the taxes.
Markets need to eliminate uncertainty. Without Grexit there is clarity and with earnings season the U.S. stock market should look for new records high.
Dear traders and investors, it seems to me that the market is going to stay in sideways trading for the next days. Trading is not easy this year.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

DJ17,700 Support is Holding

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,103     2014 peak
                           17,995     Negative trendline
                           17,925     Breakdown

DJ Support:      17,699     Last 2 months support and June low
                           17,635     200 days moving average
                           17,579     Very strong
                           16,990     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is in the range bound and the first important support DJ17,699 is working well during the last 8 weeks. It contained two strong attacks, One last week and the other this one.
The intermediate trend is still bullish but we are facing some weakness that could help to violate this first important support.
Small range to pay attention is DJ17,699-17,925.
Supports should draw buyers. Usually May and June volume is lighter than July.
Bullish trend is still in place.
Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:

Grexit (Greece) continues dominating the market sentiment and news. Positive housing starts, building permits and Tuesday and Wednesday Fed meeting weigh over the financial markets.
Q1 earnings season is almost out and Q2 earnings season is coming in about 3 weeks. Market expects a reduced corporate earnings for the Q2.
I would point the market resilience support 10-year Treasury note yield's recent spike and the concerns over a potential Greece-debt default.
The stock market needs a new catalyzer to breakout to a new historical high, it could come through Q2 earnings season. Are we going to have a summer rally?
Dear traders and investors, I expect the stock market to stay in range-bound trading during the next two weeks. We could get surprises during this time. It is hard to define the market direction in the next 15 days because the long time in the range due the lack of catalyst to move the stock market in any direction. Please stay cool and do not take emotional decisions.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Strong Support Tested

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206
                           18,103     2014 Peak
                           17,925

DJ Support:      17,715     Tuesday's low
                           17,615     200 Moving average
                           17,579     Very strong
                           16,990     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA did May low and touched support at DJ17,750. Resistance is at DJ17,925. June downturn gave a two months closing low. The bounce up is constructive for the bull case, my worries come from the support touched and buyers were not attracted, please watch the volume in the chart. The support is still valid at DJ17,715 (today's low).
DJIA maintains itself in the trading range DJ17,579-18,351 and now is testing supports. This support is very important, below it the market could get a correction because it would be confirmed as a "lower low". Supports DJ17,579 and DJ17,615 (200MA) should attract buyers and generate a bounce up. The selling pressure below record high is considered constructive after technical analysis. Technical analysis in its pure sense does not show a DJIA trend this year, I touch this point because the breakdown of DJ17,579 could be considered as an extension of time of the consolidation range (DJ16,990-18,351) by some analysts.
The bullish trend is still in play.
Watch today's "Doji"
Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Good economic news are seeing as the catalyzer for rate hike and strong dollar instead of a solid economy. Watch what happened last Friday with the unemployment, the market immediately sold stocks fiering higher rates and a king dollar.
I expect more positive economic news enough strong to push up the stocks but for the moment I suspect the stock market will stay in the range bound trading given the mixed interpretation of the news by the investors.
Dear traders and investors, these markets require patience and avoid to lose the control of the emotions. Remember, we trade and we have to have the emotions controlled. That is the only way to get rational decisions and to be in control all the time.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Depthless retracement mantains up trend

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,103     2014 peak

DJ Support:      18,010     50 Days moving average
                           17,925  
                           17,750
                           17,600     200 days moving average
                           17,579     Very strong
                           16,990     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
Technically the trend is up although the depthless retracement. DJIA maintains itself in the high range, 50 days moving average and DJ17,925 confirmation as support are constructive for the bull case.
There is a recent negative trend line from the DJ18,351 all-time high that is working as resistance, please watch the chart.
The great supports are DJ17,579 and 16,990, below them we could get an important correction of the market.
Please watch the chart where you are going to see the consolidation range, supports and resistance very clear. And please click over to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The summer season for the stock market started unofficially this week.
The mixed economic news continue to flow, Chicago PMI came this Friday showing a scary 46.2 (negative under 50) and the ISM Manufacturing report on Monday shows an acceleration to 52.2 from 51.5. If both were under 50, specialists could begin to speak about possible recession.
Personal Income improved but consumers are not spending more. Factory orders slipped 0.4%, it is the eight negative month in the last nine. U.S. house-price gains accelerate.
Rumors about rate hike for September, you can imagine how strong dollar could affect exports. I rule out interest hike for the third trimester barring U.S.A. gets a big increase in the consumption.
Dear traders and investors, are we going to have a Summer Rally? Expect more stock range bound for the moment.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises