Still Bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,622      All-time high
                           18,554

DJ Support:      18,470      Important
                           18,420
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           18,886      50 Days moving average
                           17,700
                           17,579      August inflection point
                           17,433      June low
                           17,402      220 Days moving average
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The July breakout DJ18,351 (old all-time high) remains as very important support and DJIA stays over it after the breakout.
DJIA supports in the near term are DJ18,420, 18,351, 18,171 (April peak) and 18,016.
DJIA and S&P remain in an uncharted territory and the pull-backs should have been seeing as opportunities to buy stocks.
The sharp breakout in DJIA and S&P and the very light pulls back put the indexes in a bullish bias.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
This week and next are plenty of important economic news like durable goods order, pending home sale, FOMC announcement, gross domestic product, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment, etc. besides the corporate earnings.
FOMC is expected to maintain the rates but that drives the market until 2 p.m.
Economic news are mixed and more inclined to the positive side. Corporate earnings are not the best but we are getting some good surprises. The restaurant industry seems to be to big changes or depressing. McDonald figures fired the alarm dropping down 4.5% on Monday. Regularly the restaurant industry recession is the harbinger of a large move but it is too early, we need more sales information.
The momentum is for new all-time high. The market is consolidating what it has won as I explained last week. During the next 10 days we could see a new all-time high fueled by positive news and earnings.
Dear traders and investors, not much to say because we are in a small period of time, 10 days, where the market will try to consolidate and visit new highs fueled by psychological momentum and the corporate results. That is before the summer doldrums.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

DJIA: New Record Territories

DJ Resistance:  18,563      All-time high

DJ Support:      18,471.62 Friday low
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,300      Light
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,810      50 Days moving average
                           17,700
                           17,579      August inflection point
                           17,433      June low
                           17,390      220 days moving average
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
We have seen new closing highs this week. DJIA did a new all-time high and a new closing high. What we have seen ultimately is bullish.
DJIA supports are DJ18,471.62 (Friday low), 18,351 old all-time high and DJ18,016 in the short term.
We can appreciate a strong uptrend in DJIA. Seeing the strong "V" bounce up after Brexit fall, we can consider the target at DJ18,966 of this up move.
As the market is overbought and it has slept on the all-time high DJ18,351 without lowering the level, we can consider a consolidation phase before to continue to the upside target.
The technical backdrop of DJIA and S&P remain firmly bullish.
If DJIA and S&P visit their supports, buyers should come.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

                         
 Fundamentals: 
 During the last seven days we witnessed important and terrific events in the world:
Attack in Nice, coup d'etat in Turkey,  and problems between the police and citizenry in U.S.A. In spite of these events tremendous negative the stock market continued in its way to the upside doing new all-time highs. Why? The bond interest rates are too low and the best place to be is in the stock market because the Earnings Yield outlook is better than the bonds and that is the only thing that interest investors right now who are thirst of profits from more than a year as I have explained in the last week blog. Investors and traders that does not want to lose the fortune bandwagon have to jump into and continue with the fest. For that we have to pay attention to the volume and follow it.
Corporate earnings season is in place. We got an earthquake with Netflix against positive Microsoft and banks that did better than expected. Earnings and economic news will drive the market during the next two or three week with intensity. And possible political events like what happened in Turkey, France or in U.S.A. will affect the markets.
Dear trader and investors, we are in a straightforward up move well supported after technical analysis, fueled by the momentum, earnings and economic news in the very short term. Do not forget that global economy and geopolitical are not in shape, Brexit affects the world. What I am saying is that we are in a bullish path in the short term but how long will the fest last in the fortune wagon?

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises               

New All-time Highs

DJ Resistance:  18,373      All-time high
                           18,347.67 All-time closing
                           18,300      Light
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,789      50 Days moving average
                           17,700
                           17,579      August inflection point
                           17,433      June low
                           17,325      May low 200 days moving average
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P have gotten new all-time levels and closings at the beginning of the third quarter, Wow!
This rally has the ground for a potential follow through, it has done the movement correctly accomplishing the rules of the technical analysis. We can comment that in the last years we have witnessed false breakout that means they did not follow through and then reversed.
Light supports will be the panning DJ18,000-18,012, this last is the 2015 closing high. Important supports are DJ18,171 (April peak) and DJ18,016. S&P supports are SP2,080 and 2,020.
Both the DJIA and S&P have absorbed the Brexit fall, DJ17,125, and bounced up eliminating resistance at DK18,016 and SP2,120. It took more than a year to break up the all-time highs to both indexes. And if you watch the chart you can realize that they have formed an interesting base to consider a solid follow through over the old all-time highs. I find that very bullish for both indexes and their backdrop remains bullish-leaning with positive perspective for the rally that we are witnessing now.

Pleasew click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
DJIA and S&P are in new highs and they could be higher. Firstable, the corporate earnings season is going to define the solidity of this upward move. Second, between investors there a lot of bears, investors and portfolio managers who are in cash because they did not expect this bounce up with new highs after Brexit. They think that they lost the beginning of the move and want to jump into the fortune wagon.
Dear traders and investors, we are going to face an intense market during this corporate earnings season. Markets wants higher levels and are thirsty of profits. They have waited more than a year for the new highs. Good earnings with growth are going to define this upward move before the summer doldrums. The next three weeks the market is going to be drive by emotions with rational earnings season besides the economic news, the last three important were positive as I indicated in the past blog.

  Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises          

DJ18,016 Mayor Resistance

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,096      2016 peak
                           18,016      June peak

DJ Support:      17,780      50 Days moving average
                           17,579      August inflection point
                           17,433      May closing low
                           17,425      2015 Low
                           17,256      200 Days moving average
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
Impressive the bounce up from DJ17,125 to DJ18,000 area. It did almost 900 points equivalent to 5.9% in four days. The index was stopped in a strong technical resistance zone approximately DJ18,016.
DJIA has supports at DJ17,780, and the strong one DJ17,579. For the S&P the supports are SP2,020 and 2,040.
The price action is very constructive to the upside especially the close over DJ17,579.
I expect a consolidation in this area waiting for the coming earnings season although the overbought momentum.
The selling volume at DJ18,000 and S&P below SP2,120 is to pay attention.
DJIA and S&P are bullish-leaning as they sleep over DJ17,579 and SP2,040.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

 Fundamentals:
ISM Manufacturing came last week better than expected at 53.2 driving the indexes to the mayor resistance opening the expectations to visit the all-time high, it was touched almost thirteen months ago. ISM Services is coming this Wednesday and unemployment rate with non-farm payroll of June this Friday. May added only 39,000 when expectations were 200,000. Those economic news and the earnings season would bring the opportunity to visit the all-time highs and to break up them. If the economic news are negative, the market would put a temporary ceiling in those resistances and it will trade in a range for a while.
Brexit brought uncertainty and it will affect the financial markets. There are a lot of question that look for answers. We can consider some almost sure facts like:
Low interest rates, U.S.A. will be the receptor of capital and money flows, European stocks would stay shaking, finally banks and financials may have harsh days in front of them due the low interest rates that makes not easy to them to win money. In addition the British pound continues falling.
Dear traders and investors, the Brexit bounce is giving some profit taking globally. That is normal and it reflects that investors are not sure about new highs. The economic data will clear all the bull and bear doubts.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises