Consolidation with Dow Jones new record high

DJ Resistance:  17,000
                            16,971.17  All-time close high

DJ Support:        16.815       20 Days Moving Average
                            16,743       May peak prior resistance, now support
                            16,580       Strong
                            16,312       Strong
                            16,015       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA has done a new record high on Friday, same was done by S&P. NASDAQ Composite has gotten its best level from 2000.
Support is at DJ16.815 20 Days Moving Average. Next is DJ16.743 May peak, it was resistance, breakout and now is strong support. The 50 and 200 days Moving Averages are good support and point the market up move.
The DJIA over the 6 months positive trend lines, please watch the chart, and the June bounce up from DJ16.743 May peak, previous resistance and breakout level confirm the bullish market behavior.
There is a clear Dow Jones uptrend in the last five years, please watch the ten years chart.
The DJ is in a consolidation right now with a bullish bias. The trend is up.

What worries me is the decreasing stock trade's volume in the last three years. Normally breakouts trigger higher volume than usual and that confirm the new development in the market. You can realize that the S&P like DJIA are doing new highs without a strong follow through in a low volume. Little by little the breakouts are confirmed and both, S&P and DJIA, are in new record highs. That way the S&P will reach the SP2.000 or will be in a healthy correction before.

Fundamentals:
Last week economic news were positive like leading indicators, Fed Philly Survey, Jobless Claims, etc. The market is expecting good economic news this and next week. For example we have GDP Revision on Wednesday (the only one negative), Personal Income, Consumer Spending and so on ending next Thursday with unemployment rate and non-farm payroll. We will face second quarter earnings season in ten days. All these could be the catalyzers to visit S&P2.000.
Meanwhile the market is going to be in a consolidation phase as I explained last week.
Dear traders and investors, I am confident that the market will go up and we will see new historical highs. No more comments for now because the market is resting consolidating. The earnings season and the economic news will act to see it, or to get a short lived correction.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Dow Jones still bullish

DJ resistance:  17.000
                          16.970,17  All-time closing peak
                          16.900       Light

DJ Support:      16.743      Former all-time closing high
                          16.580      Strong
                          16.312      Strong
                          16.015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The positive trend up line from six months stays integrated and immaculate (watch six months chart).

What we can realize is that DJIA has tested its breakout level, DJ16.743 before resistance and now support, and bounced up. The last three close were on the upside. What does it mean? Buyers came at new support DJ16.743. Technically that is wonderful for the uptrend continuation. Retracements are to buy on the technical supports as I indicated last week.
The 20 days moving average supported the index drop at DJ16.730 (watch six months chart). 50 days moving averages should work also as a good support At DJ16.560.
This consolidation is positive and constructive for the DJ trend which is navigating in unknown territories.

All these put the Dow Jones Index Average (DJIA) in a bullish mood.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The participants are focusing in the market swings with a bullish bias not paying attention to the geopolitical conflicts as always. Russia-Ukraine, Syria and the last Palestine-Israel confrontations could affect the markets.
The U.S. economy is doing better than bad, the corporate earnings are acceptable and great part of them are plenty of cash, and the low interest rates are supporting the market. The markets expect a recovery with the 2014 GDP at 3% or better.
The market is in a consolidation phase now after the breakout, I expect a positive earnings season in July. The corporate earnings are going to work as catalyzers to explore new horizons in the market. If that, we will have a Summer Rally, otherwise the market will go in a correction and we will get a boring August and September.
Dear traders and investors, please concentrate in the positive trend line and consider the breakdown of DJ16.015 as a possible deep correction.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

Dow Jones did new historical highs

DJ Resistance: 17,000
                           16,970.17  All-time closing peak

DJ Support:       16,900      Near term
                           16,743      Former all-time closing high              
                           16,620      Strong
                           16,312      April's low
                           16.015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA and S&P have gotten new historical highs after the last rally. The S&P is looking for SP2,000 and DJ is very near to DJ17,000. Both are navigating in new territories.
The first support is at DJ16,900, it is light but necessary to get the DJ17,000. The next one is DJ16.743, this time it should be very strong. It was the former all-time high resistance, now support.
Please watch on the six month chart the "Positive Trend Line", long over it.
The longer-term trend points up undoubtedly. The retracement are to buy and increase long positions or for the newer participants while continuing to assess the market in its pullbacks.
It would be healthy a consolidation phase over DJ17,000 before the possible "summer rally". Volume has increased in the last two weeks which is positive to sustain the rally.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it

Fundamentals:
"Sell in May and go away" didn't pay to traders and investors this year. The market is doing new record highs according with the improvement in the economy, the corporate earnings and the cheap money. The interest rates are still low. The emerging markets (BRICs) are not anymore the stars, they are confronting some problems and its rapid growth is committed. The capitals are flying again to U.S.A. and Europe.
Dear traders and investors, finally we got what we were expecting with patience and inner strengh. I think that the market is going to consolidate its accomplishments and we will see in July with the earnings season as catalyzer if we have a beautiful summer rally. For the moment I suggest you to focus on the positive trend line that is defined in the six month chart.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises  

New highs in slow motion

DJ Resistance:  16,743.63 All-time high

DJ Support:        16,700      Light
                            16,620      Wednesday and Thursday lows
                            15,500      50DMA and positive trend line
                            16,312      Strong April low
                            16,174      November low
                            16,015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA and S&P have done new record highs without an expectacular breakout followed by a decisive follow through, let's say bulls disrupt bears.

Initial support comes at DJ16,700 approximately with a more important support at DJ16,620 Wednesday and Thursday lows.
The DJ last six months are positive and shows that the trend is up and constructive (please watch the positive trend line on the chart). The direction is firmly bullish.
The DJIA is also well supported by 20, 50, and 200 days moving averages.
We can conclude that the DJIA points to continue in the new territories with a slow speed. Markets needs more volume in its transactions.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it,

Fundamentals:
The market seems to be bullish monotonous. In the next three days the markets are going to be affected by some high-profile economic news: U.S. ADP Employment report, Beige Book, trade deficit, productivity, European Central Bank measures to combat possible low inflation and to stimulate the economy, Group of Seven meeting in Brussels, and finally unemployment rate with non-farm payroll. The boredom of the markets could disappear with them.
Dear traders and investors, I don't want to take away your time. The S&P and DJIA are in new territories but almost in the last months range. They need a larger action. They are going to have the catalyzers for an up or down move in these three next days. Personally, I am bullish but I cannot read the future. I have only expectations based in the rational analysis. Stay in your cockpits during these three days.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises           

Near to the all-time high

DJ Resistance:  16.735,51  All-time record high
                            16.715,44  All-time closing high

DJ Support:        16.580
                            16.520
                            16.312      Strong April's low
                            16.174      November's peak
                            16.015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA broke up the resistances at DJ16.580 and DJ16.620, which shows the clear up trend.
The DJIA has formed a positive trend line from March's low. It has high probabilities to drive the index to breakout the all-time high resistance and to visit new territories (watch the chart).
The new S&P all-time record high SP1.912, the fresh NASDAQ Composite bounce up clearing resistance at 4.155 and the negative trend line from March's high confirm this strong up move.
The S&P one or two closes above the SP1.900 is not a breakout, to get the confidence of it we need to stay and close above this level during many days.
I like this break out potential for the longs and today's volume supports it.

The trend is up well supported.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it

Fundamentals:

The technical analysis concludes that the trend is upward so clear as the transparency and clarity of the rainwater but fundamentally not so much.

We are getting positive economic news with some negatives and some neutrals. This week and next are plenty of important economic news ending next week's Friday with the unemployment and non-farm payroll.

The U.S.A. economy is growing, the recovery is on the way if economic activity can maintain a constant solid step. It seems to me that it is working.

Dear traders and investors, I think we are going to see and enjoy DJIA new records high soon, the question is to maintain those levels. If the DJ continues to the upside it goes to breakout the range and it will navigate in non-charted territory. This is what I expect for the short term. I am still bullish, maintain your long positions. The momentum and timing are mature for this attempt, if the DJ can not accomplish new highs in the next fifteen days, it had to wait until the first three weeks of July before the Summer Doldrums.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

May is almost gone

DJ Resistance:  16.715,44  All-time closing high
                            16.731       Prior all-time high 
                            16.620
                            16.580

DJ Support:        16.361,46    
                            16.357.35  May's low
                            16.312       Strong April's low
                            16.174       November's peak
                            16.015       Strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA is still in the two weeks range DJ16.312 - 16.715.44
The DJIA continues to act well according to technical analysis. Although it is trapped in the range, it maintains showing its bullish trend.
I quoted in my prior blog actualization " the two first supports (DJ16.352 and DJ 16.312) should work well, if that, we'll see new attempts to the highs soon" and the market did that. I felt like Napoleon.
I expected a fiercest fight in the new highs looking for new territories. I don't like this retracement, we have to pay attention to the momentum and the timing.
Another point is the volume, it was low when DJIA got new highs and a little bit higher volume when the market retraced. These new highs are dangerous with such low volume.
In summary the trend is up.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it

Fundamentals:
This week and next we are going to get important economic news to drive the market. I expect to get good news overall but not excellent. The economy is growing and the market needs the economy to keep a good step. Still we are in earnings season.
My worry is about momentum and timing. May is almost gone, the transaction volume is so low. The momentum is losing strength and the timing is driven the market to a typical neutral June.

Dear traders and investors, the market has two weeks in front of it to confirm the new high and maybe to go in unknown territories, other way is to wait until July earnings season before the summer doldrums if the summer rally. Stay tuned and cool for these two weeks.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Sell in May and go away?

DJ Resistance:  16.631    All-time high

DJ Support:       16.352    50 Days Moving Average
                           16.312    Strong April's low
                           16.174    November's peak
                           16.015    Strong

Technical Analysis:
DJ challenged the all-time closing high and touched DJ16.620 but not the all-time high DJ16.631. DJIA is still in the range DJ16.015 - 16.631and still looking for the upside. What it has done is very constructive.
DJ has to be over DJ16.352 (50 days MA) and DJ16.312 (April's low) supports to maintain this challenge.


Fundamentals:
The first quarter GDP was extremely weak if we compare with the last two quarters of 2013. I attribute that to the bad weather and to confirm it we have to focus on April data.
- Non-farm payroll to 288.000
- Unemployment rate to 6.3%
- ISM Services is up to 55.2 from 53.1
- New orders to 58.2
- ISM Manufacturing to 54.9 from 53.7
All these news drive us to think that the U.S.economy is improving. We will face important economic news in the next three days. May came and this and the next week are fundamentals to see new highs soon.
I feel myself comfortable with the upside bias but I worry about momentum.
Dear traders and investors, the two first supports should work well, if that, we'll see new attempts to the highs soon.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises