What so hectic days for the stock market

DJ Resistance:  17,991     All-time record high
                           17,726.55
                           17,600
                           17,525
                           17,278 - 17,350

DJ Support:      16,990
                           16,588
                           16,320
                           16,015
                           15,854

Technical Analysis:
What a damage we can see in the charts. The strong support at DJ16,278 was penetrated and left far. The DJIA needs to overcome this level and also to recover a level over its 50 days moving average to look for stabilization. In the last seven sessions, six were very negative and only one positive. DJIA has lost almost 5.125% during this period.
S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have the same backdrop.
The trend is bullish in the long run, please watch the six years bull market chart. It is not clear in the short term.
We have to pay attention to DJ16,278. In that level there was a strong battle, please watch volume, and sellers fought buyers. Sellers were attracted there.
Let's see how the market reacts during these three days.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:

I will relay last week fundamentals blog:

"We are clear that U.S. economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth rate (maybe below 7% of GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.

What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs they are not the same as 2006 jobs, that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences." What I missed is the Russia case and the rubble.

Dear traders and investors, next economic news should be positive. This correction or reversal should be limited. Actually, sellers are driving the market, they are present and acting releasing their stocks into the market making the offer higher than the demand. Sellers are investors, traders and fund managers taking profit from their positions as I explained few weeks ago and cleaning their portfolios. For that, they sell bad or weak positions and take loses preparing the taxes to pay until April 2015. My expectations are more hectic days in the stock market and a Christmas Rally over December 20th. Please be calm and cool!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Sharp reversal from new all-time high, almost DJ18,000

DJ Resistance:  17,991     All-time record high
                           17,894     Prior all-time high

DJ Support:      17,726.55     Strong
                           17,600
                           17,525
                           17,278 - 17,350 Very strong
                           16,990

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has reversed sharp from its new all-time record high, it almost got DJ18,000.
This sharp reverse is important because sellers came at an important psychological level DJ18,000 and they battled the bulls this time. What I like is that there is a clear short term range formed during the last two weeks. This range should be the consolidation area for the market rest (DJ17,726 - 17,991). The market can stay in the range for ten days more fighting the bulls and bears. This fight will be defined with or not a Christmas Rally.
DJIA is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
It is hard to determine the DJIA supports due to the steep slope of the Dow Jones bounce up from mid-October and besides the market is in unknown territory.
The breakout point DJ17,278 - 17,350 should provide a formidable and strong support attracting buyers.
Considering DJIA behavior, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE also, the bull trend for medium and long term maintains its bullish perspective. The three indexes are well backed barring a break through supports.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are clear that U.S, economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth (maybe below 7% GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.
What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs, they are not the same as 2006 jobs that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences.
Dear traders and investors, we are facing hectic movements in the next 10 days. I expect that the supports are going to work well and, if that, we are going to be compensate by our Christmas Rally in the last ten days of December. Am I extremely optimistic? My nature is optimistic but I have done my due diligence. Nothing is written! be cool and navigate these markets according to your plans, stick with them!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises
                         

Dow Jones uptrend continues

DJ Resistance:        17,897       All-time record high
                                 17,879.55  All-time close high

DJ Support:            17,705       Strong
                                 17,600
                                 17,500
                                 17,278 - 17,350 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA got a 9% correction in October and continues ridding an extraordinary and powerful 7 weeks bounce.
This bounce up is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The breakout level of this up movement is DJ17,278 - 17,350 which is equivalent to the height of September. This last movement should find a very strong support at those levels, buyers should come to buy and fight bears there. It is almost a steep line to the new highs which makes difficult to determine small supports in the race. All this defines a constructive up move and confirm the bullish bias for December. The long term trend is bullish for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
This V Reversal has an academic target at DJ18,600.
Next target for the year end is DJ18,000 and S&P2,100.
Long over DJ17,278.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are going to get important economic news from this Wednesday specially non-farm payroll and unemployment rate on Friday. These figures during December are going to drive the market. December is a good month for the stock market. Traditionally we get Christmas rally and I think this December will follow the same pattern because U.S.A. economy is improving. UE economy is still weak but in a better shape, China probably will define a lower 2015 GDP target, Japan is in recession but asking for a new mandate to fix its deflationary and weak economy.
The market is expecting a deep correction at same point. The participants are nervous and are going to get any excuse to take profits. For example last Friday and Monday were profit taking days with the excuse of a black Friday figures disappointment.
My expectations for December are some market rest with some profits taking in the first 20 days of the month and a clear Christmas rally in the last 10 days of December. Remember I was wrong with my November expectations when I thought about market rest in the first two weeks, market always pointed up and finally we got our Thanksgiving rally.
Dear traders and investors, stay long over DJ17,288, I expect a good December for us.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Thanksgiving rally

DJ Short Term Range:  17,705 - 17,817.90

DJ Support:                     17,525    Strong
                                          17,280    Strong September peak


Dear traders and investors, we got our Thanksgiving rally, we are going to get important economic news from next week as the unemployment.
I actually wish you a very nice Thanksgiving holiday, this is the time for families to be gathered together enjoying the peace and love around the heat and light of the home. Family is very important.

DJIA next target is DJ18,000 and S&P 2,100. U.S.markets are in a clear bullish trend despite an expected correction at some point.


See you next week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

S&P exceeeded 2050 points.

DJ Resistance:  17,735.71     Record all-time high
                           17,705          Prior all-time record high

DJ Support:      17,525 - 17,500
                           17,411          Strong
                           17,278          September's peak
                           16,990
                           16,588          Strong 2013's peak
                           16,320          Strong
                           15,850          Very strong

Technical Analysis:
S&P did new all-time record high at SP2056. I expected SP2050 for Thanksgiving and we got it one week in advance with this strong bull market.
DJIA and S&P are riding in unknown territories. The new DJIA short term range is DJ17,500 - 17,735.71.
The steep last four Weeks's spike is extremely bullish for medium and long term. Every week DJIA closed higher than previous. This is a strong bullish sign because it means that buyers are coming and bears are losing the fight with them.
The three indexes are in bullish mood, we should watch others like S&P400 or Russell 2000 because they can act as ballast if they don't have the same movement.
Next target for DJIA should be DJ18,000 and SP2,100. Technical analysis indicates a clearly bullish direction supported by a strong positive momentum.

Click over the charts to enlarge them

Fundamentals:
These markets are driven up by the last U.S.A. economic news like the consumer is in shape, Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales reported better than expected, U.S.A. recovery is in the way, European economy is out of recession officially with 0.8% GDP growth, Japan is in recession but Abe is calling for election and delaying sales tax increase for 18 months, a good earnings season and the catalyzer U.S.A. election.
There is no more important economic news until December and we will have a nice Thanksgiving next week.
Dear traders and investors, do not forget that we got almost 9% correction in October generated by the geopolitical backdrop, European recesion, etc. The formidable bounce up of the stock market is showing us what the market is anticipating for the next 6 to 9 months. We have to analyze the coming inflation and how it is going to affect the market. We are going to work on it. For the moment market has to consolidate over S&P 2050, if that, next target and we will see is SP2,100 before the year end otherwise we will get a moderated correction looking for bull-bear battlefield to define market's direction in the short term.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Dow Jones new all-time record high

DJ Resistance:  17,638     New all-time record high


DJ Support:       17,411    Prior all-time record high
                            17,278    Light last 8 days low
                            16,990    Strong
                            16,588    Strong 2013's peak
                            16,320    Strong
                            16,015    Very strong
                            15,850    Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) broke up its all-time record high and its scenery is bullish.
First support at DJ17,411 and next at DJ17,278. Those levels are important to target new historical highs.
DJIA and S&P have done new all-time record high and NASDAQ COMPOSITE did its fourteen years high. The three indexes are supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The market didn't rest and the election acted as an upward catalyzer.
The trend in the medium and short term is solidly to the upside.
If the "V Reversal" is confirmed this time, the target would be DJ18,600.
The S&P way is clearly to the SP2050 before the year's end and DJIA should try DJ18,000. The NASDAQ Composite looks for its all-time high.
Technical analysis indicates enough space to continue to the upside.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
I have explained about the U.S. recovery and the weakness in the rest of the world, the positive expectations for the European Central Bank possible intervention to stimulate the economy, and so on.
We are going to see a correction, markets needs 10% at least to get honest stock prices in the new market reality, but when?
Not for the moment. I was wrong in my speculation of hectic days (they have been meet and continue), rest (this not accomplished), and Thanksgiving rally.
The stock market is in a fueled momentum to the upside, then let's go with the tide!
S&P 2050 is a target before year's end.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

New record highs technical and clearly bullish

DJ Resistance:  17,411      All-time record high


DJ Support:      17,330
                           17,279.94  Prior all-time record close
                           17,152       July's peak
                           16,990       Strong
                           16,588       Strong 2013 peak
                           16,320       Strong
                           16,015       Very strong
                           15,850

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has bounced up getting new all-time record high. This last up move has approximately 1,550 points from its low and it took three weeks.
It seems that the market needs to rest but the result of the elections could catalyze it.
The short term small range is DJ17,330 - 17,411 and the stabilization area is DJ16,990 - 17,411. DJIA has to fight and overcome its resistance, if it fails we are going to face a selloff, But DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are technically bullish. The DJ16,990 support violation should be considered as a possibility for a correction.
The long term uptrend is still in place. Personally I expect to get S&P2050 this year.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The result of the elections and this week important economic news as unemployment on Friday are going to play into the market's direction.
As I commented in the last weeks the U.S.A. economy is doing well but EU, China, India, Brazil and some Asian countries like Japan are in a weak mode. This could weigh in the U.S.A activity for example the trade deficit grew last months due the decreasing exports to EU, it was because the feeble European consumption. The strength of Germany relies on exports not in its internal consumption.
Dear traders and investors, the Friday unemployment figures are going to rule the markets. What could we expect? I think some hectic days, then some rest of the markets and Thanksgiving rally. This is my own speculation. At the beginning of 2014 I told you my expectations to see this year S&P1,900 and very possible S&P2000. Those goals are accomplished and there is more room. Nothing is written.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises