Dow Jones 17,262 supported

DJ Resistances:  18,103.45  All-time high
                             17,916       Last 10 days high
                             17,600

DJ Support:        17,262       Strong, important battlefield
                             16,990       Strong, important battlefield

Technical Analysis:
January low has worked as strong support in this decisive battlefield in the three indexes (DJ, S&P, Nasdaq)
Buyers were attracted in DJ16,262 and they allowed the market to bounce up. Dow Jones over DJ16,990 and specially 17,262 maintains all its upside potential, below those levels the chart changes but it is still bullish in the long run.
The three indexes are supported by its 200 days Moving Averages, they are strong supports.
Technically, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is in an uptrend right now consolidating and challenging important supports.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Positive Chinese economic news gave support to the stock market bulls, China got an increase of 7.4% GDP in 2014. Specially, after FMI adjusted its projections to the downside for 2015.
FMI increased its expectations for U.S.A. GDP in 0.5% to 3.6% for 2015. China will increase 6.8%, EU 1.2%, Japan 0.6%, United Kingdom 2.7%, Canada 2.3%, Russia -3%, India 6.3%, Spain 20% and the emerging markets will be weak. With that, the real interest rates will stay low for at least the end of the third quarter. That and low gas prices, U.S.$750.- for each American family more in 2015, would be good for the stock market. Consumption sentiment is positive and should be higher during the 2015.
Dear traders and investors, the stock market will be driven by the earnings season in the next two or three weeks, It is important in the short term to remain over DJ16.990 to develop the consolidation period and to get a new attempt to the all-time highs.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Actually toppish in the short term

DJ Resistance:  18,103.45  All-time high
                           17,916       High of last week
                           17,800

DJ Support:      17,600      Medium
                           17,278      September peak closing
                           17,262      Strong last week low
                           16,990      Very strong & 200 DMA
                           16,588      Very strong 2013's peak
                           16,320    
                           16,015
                           15,854      Very strong October low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA supported last week at DJ17,262 almost DJ17,278 September peak closing. What does it mean? The index supported on a very strong level and created a positive uptrend line from October low which worked as Tuesday support (please watch the One Year daily Chart). This one shows a constructive market to the upside. The buyers came on the support that we have indicated as big battlefield.
The long term trend is to the upside despite the January great volatility. The bull market is still in place, please watch last week 10 Years Monthly Chart.
It seems to me that market is forming an extended range DJ16,990-18,103.45 considering the clear positive uptrend line coming from 2014 October low.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Non-farm payroll and unemployment rate were a great surprise last Friday, more the revised November figures to 353,000 new jobs was splendid. U.S.A. doing well in contrast to European Union, Japan, China, Russia and some emerging markets like Brazil, Venezuela, oil plays heavy in the world and the geopolitical. I read low interest rates for 2015 and if they are increased would mean strong economy recovery. Low interest rates are positive for stock market and it would potential the positive economy effects in the financial market.
I am not clear for 2015 but I suspect a good year for the stock market and it could growth near 10% during this period.
Economic news are important for the market but we entered in the earnings season and if they are positive during the next two weeks the DJIA is going to look for new highs.
Dear traders and investors, I have to continue with the analysis to get a projection for 2015 but it seems very feasible to see the DJIA near DJ19,500 for the end of the year. Let's work hard to propose a scenario for the 2015!
Remember that we are in earnings season!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones Toppish?

DJ Resistance:  18,103.45

DJ Support:      17,250 (September peak DJ17,278)
                           16,990  Very strong and 200 days MA
                           16,588   2013 peak

Technical Analysis:
Christmas rally drove the DJIA to its historical top DJ18,103.45. The S&P could not get SP2,100 and stopped at SP2,094.
DJ has corrected in the last streak six days. The damage is important and it has done with volume. The index approached two important battle fields, DJ17,250 (almost September peak) and DJ16,990 (please watch the one year daily chart and the ten years chart).  They should attract buyers. 200 days moving average is an important indicator when is trending. Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are supported by the 200DMA. The three have violated the 50 days moving averages. S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE broke down their September peak.
The short term is complicated and we are ad portas of a big battlefield, the more positive is Dow Jones but could it support the other two indexes? I think these supports are important.
The long term trend is still constructive to the upside. Please watch the 10 years monthly chart and you will realize it. Also it is clear that the DJIA touched the upper resistance in the uptrend channel from March 2009.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

 Fundamentals:
2015 has begun with two economic news not so positive. We have to pay attention this week to ADP employment, trade deficit, FOMC Minutes, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and wholesale inventories. We have to navigate in a hectic see.
I am still comfortable with the U.S.A growth but EU, China, Japan, India, Russia and the emerging markets are in the other side besides geopolitical aspects. This allows me to read low interest rates for almost three quarters of the year. I work hard trying to clarify the 2015 economic behavior and environment. Oil is a heavy factor for all the world, its impact is not so clear yet because some countries are going to have more money to stimulate their economies and others less. The equation is not so simply due the social storms that may occur around the world.
Dear traders and investors, we are facing cloudy skies at the 2015 beginning, keep cool! I remember I felt the same in January 2014. Life is dynamic not static and we will be successful together.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                     

Christmas Rally Dow Jones 18,069

Dow Jones Industrial Average overcame DJ18,000. It is in unknown territories in rally mode. Target accomplished.
The long term trend is bullish. I still think that we are going to see S&P at SP2,100 before the year's end.
I was comfortable and confident with DJ18,000 target before 2015 because I was expecting good U.S. economic news in spite of the weakness in the rest of the world, and the low interest rates. Besides the technical analysis which is clearly constructive to the bull side.

Dear traders and investors, my goal is to help you in navigating the market. I put all my knowledge, experience and strength of mi person to write this small blog every week. It is a passion and I feel the responsibility with you. Nothing is for granted in life but I am with you.
I want to thank my colleague who worked with me in Citibank who encouraged me to write about the market.
See you in January, I wish you;

!Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
!Happy Holidays!
!Seasons Greetings!


Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

What so hectic days for the stock market

DJ Resistance:  17,991     All-time record high
                           17,726.55
                           17,600
                           17,525
                           17,278 - 17,350

DJ Support:      16,990
                           16,588
                           16,320
                           16,015
                           15,854

Technical Analysis:
What a damage we can see in the charts. The strong support at DJ16,278 was penetrated and left far. The DJIA needs to overcome this level and also to recover a level over its 50 days moving average to look for stabilization. In the last seven sessions, six were very negative and only one positive. DJIA has lost almost 5.125% during this period.
S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have the same backdrop.
The trend is bullish in the long run, please watch the six years bull market chart. It is not clear in the short term.
We have to pay attention to DJ16,278. In that level there was a strong battle, please watch volume, and sellers fought buyers. Sellers were attracted there.
Let's see how the market reacts during these three days.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:

I will relay last week fundamentals blog:

"We are clear that U.S. economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth rate (maybe below 7% of GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.

What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs they are not the same as 2006 jobs, that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences." What I missed is the Russia case and the rubble.

Dear traders and investors, next economic news should be positive. This correction or reversal should be limited. Actually, sellers are driving the market, they are present and acting releasing their stocks into the market making the offer higher than the demand. Sellers are investors, traders and fund managers taking profit from their positions as I explained few weeks ago and cleaning their portfolios. For that, they sell bad or weak positions and take loses preparing the taxes to pay until April 2015. My expectations are more hectic days in the stock market and a Christmas Rally over December 20th. Please be calm and cool!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Sharp reversal from new all-time high, almost DJ18,000

DJ Resistance:  17,991     All-time record high
                           17,894     Prior all-time high

DJ Support:      17,726.55     Strong
                           17,600
                           17,525
                           17,278 - 17,350 Very strong
                           16,990

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has reversed sharp from its new all-time record high, it almost got DJ18,000.
This sharp reverse is important because sellers came at an important psychological level DJ18,000 and they battled the bulls this time. What I like is that there is a clear short term range formed during the last two weeks. This range should be the consolidation area for the market rest (DJ17,726 - 17,991). The market can stay in the range for ten days more fighting the bulls and bears. This fight will be defined with or not a Christmas Rally.
DJIA is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
It is hard to determine the DJIA supports due to the steep slope of the Dow Jones bounce up from mid-October and besides the market is in unknown territory.
The breakout point DJ17,278 - 17,350 should provide a formidable and strong support attracting buyers.
Considering DJIA behavior, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE also, the bull trend for medium and long term maintains its bullish perspective. The three indexes are well backed barring a break through supports.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are clear that U.S, economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth (maybe below 7% GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.
What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs, they are not the same as 2006 jobs that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences.
Dear traders and investors, we are facing hectic movements in the next 10 days. I expect that the supports are going to work well and, if that, we are going to be compensate by our Christmas Rally in the last ten days of December. Am I extremely optimistic? My nature is optimistic but I have done my due diligence. Nothing is written! be cool and navigate these markets according to your plans, stick with them!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises
                         

Dow Jones uptrend continues

DJ Resistance:        17,897       All-time record high
                                 17,879.55  All-time close high

DJ Support:            17,705       Strong
                                 17,600
                                 17,500
                                 17,278 - 17,350 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA got a 9% correction in October and continues ridding an extraordinary and powerful 7 weeks bounce.
This bounce up is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The breakout level of this up movement is DJ17,278 - 17,350 which is equivalent to the height of September. This last movement should find a very strong support at those levels, buyers should come to buy and fight bears there. It is almost a steep line to the new highs which makes difficult to determine small supports in the race. All this defines a constructive up move and confirm the bullish bias for December. The long term trend is bullish for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
This V Reversal has an academic target at DJ18,600.
Next target for the year end is DJ18,000 and S&P2,100.
Long over DJ17,278.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are going to get important economic news from this Wednesday specially non-farm payroll and unemployment rate on Friday. These figures during December are going to drive the market. December is a good month for the stock market. Traditionally we get Christmas rally and I think this December will follow the same pattern because U.S.A. economy is improving. UE economy is still weak but in a better shape, China probably will define a lower 2015 GDP target, Japan is in recession but asking for a new mandate to fix its deflationary and weak economy.
The market is expecting a deep correction at same point. The participants are nervous and are going to get any excuse to take profits. For example last Friday and Monday were profit taking days with the excuse of a black Friday figures disappointment.
My expectations for December are some market rest with some profits taking in the first 20 days of the month and a clear Christmas rally in the last 10 days of December. Remember I was wrong with my November expectations when I thought about market rest in the first two weeks, market always pointed up and finally we got our Thanksgiving rally.
Dear traders and investors, stay long over DJ17,288, I expect a good December for us.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises