S&P at New All-time High

DJ Resistance:  18,103.45  All-time high
                           18,053       All-time closing high

DJ Support:      17,916       It was the inflexion point
                           17,823       2014 close
                           17,600
                           17,350       September peak
                           17,278       September close peak
                           16,990       Very strong
                           16,588       2013 peak
                           16,320
                           16,015
                           15,854       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
S&P got a new historical high and NASDAQ COMPOSITE did its better high from March 2,000. DJIA lagged but showed strength to the upside.
DJIA broke up the inflexion point at DJ17,916 and attempted to the all-time high, it is fighting.
DJIA stays in the consolidation range DJ16,990 - 18,103.45 which is supportive for the bulls. Technical Analysis supports the trend to the up side. The violation at DJ16,990 could change the positive trend in the short term. In the long term the trend is clear to the up side. We have always to be prepared against the violations in the charts.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are going to face important economic news this and next week. Are we going to break the resistance and explore new territories? It is possible. I think that the stock market needs more steam to penetrate the resistance, fly and stay in new territories. This steam could come with the new earnings season in April. The last one disappointed a bit.
Dear traders and investors, the stock market is in a very special position. I am convinced that it needs more fuel to go into new territories. It is easy to be wrong in these markets but what I can tell you is to buy on the dips. I am still optimistic with the stock market. We have together confirmed the strong support at DJ16,990.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Backdrop still Bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,103.45  All-time high
                           17,916       Important

DJ Support:      17,600
                           17,350       Sepetember peak
                           17,080       200 days moving average
                           16,990       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA stays in its consolidation range DJ16,990-18,103.45 like S&P.
DJ17,916 was surpassed by few points and it reversed. That means that sellers were attracted a t that level but the reverse is shallow, why? Because when the index attempted the resistance, broke the negative trend line (watch green negative trend line on the chart). Next resistance is DJ16,916 area (DJ17,951 last week high).
We can say that the market is in a very technical situation because is consolidating in a range. As the support has worked very well, the bounce has broken the negative trend line and the reverse has not been harsh, we can conclude that the bias for the first three months of 2015 is bullish and the long term to the upside is still in play according to technical analysis.
The 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages are supporting the DJ.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We got a beautiful job report last week but the market lost steam. The explanation is the market fears to the rate increase this year due to the better job landscape.
Earnings season are still in play but the most important have been passed. There are no interesting catalyzers this week. I think that the market will try DJIA all-time high but it will stay in the consolidation range for a while before to do new highs.
Dear traders and investors, the market could stay in the consolidation range until next earnings season.  I expect rate increases in the third 2015 trimester at least. Some colleagues expect that FED action at the beginning of the second trimester.  We are not reading crystal balls, that movement is very important for the stock market. I am optimistic with U.S.A. economy for this year and I expect a good stock market based in the job market, productivity, consumption and the private investments.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Technically Still Bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,103.45  All-time record high
                           17,916
                           17,821

DJ Support:      17,420
                           17,350       2014 September high
                           17,262       2014 September closing high
                           17,074       200 days Moving Average
                           16,990       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA bounced up from 200 days moving average approximately DJ17,060  and DJ16,990 is a strong support. As I have indicated that technical level attracts buyers. S&P did almost the same and its backdrop is stronger than DJIA.
The index stays consolidating in the range DJ16,990-18,103.45 and it is in a constructive bullish mood.
It is important for DJIA to break up the negative trend line (green in the one year daily chart). We have to pay attention to that line.
The five years bull market is still in place and clear in the big figure.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
ECB (European Central Bank) starts its QE (quantitative easing program) on March buying 60 billion bonds monthly. It should increase the liquidity and maintain low interest rates to force credit growth. That means small and medium corporations will get access to the low rate credits.  When the interest rates are low, the investors look for risk assets to get income and as we have seeing in the U.S.A. and United Kingdom, the stock market became an excellent investment. That is interesting and promissory but the bigger part of that liquidity stays in the banks to strengthen their balance sheets. I am not so optimistic with European QE excellent results.
Dear traders and investors, I think we are going to have low interest rates for at least the first three 2015 trimesters which will impact the stock market during this year.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones touched resistance and bounced back

DJ Resistances:  18,103.45  All-time high
                             17,916
                             17,821
                             17,600

DJ Supports:      17,350        September high
                             17,262       September closing high very strong
                             16,990       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA failed its attempt to DJ17,916 resistance, stopped at DJ17,821(new resistance now) and went back to the downside. This is bearish for the very short term. The negative trend line worked very well aborting the up move. Please watch the green negative trend line on the last and this week charts
The consolidation range still is DJ16,990 to 18,103.45. The other clear range is DJ17,262 - 17,916. DJ17,262-17,350 should support the DJIA. If not, DJ16,990 is the last barrier in the short term. If both supports would be broken, we will face weakness in the market and we will witness a serious correction for the indexes.
The stock market trend is to the upside, the bull market is working from March 2009. The market is in a positive mood and trend over DJ16,990.
 Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The ups and downs of the market show confusion. This comes from economic news, geopolitical, projections, Middle East, etc.
It seems to me that we are going to have a good stock market year based in U.S.A. economy growth and low interest rates due of EU central bank buys of the European Bonds to put more liquidity into the market. Europe needs to increase growth and fastest grow. China is going to grow below 7% in 2015 and emerging markets are weak.
The market is in full season of corporate earnings, some are excellent and some disappoint.
Dear traders and investors, the market is in a range, pay attention to that, and the catalyzers for this week are: FOMC Meeting Statement tomorrow Wednesday and Q4 GDP on Friday. Please put your emotions aside and trade according to your plans, the ranges are clear.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones 17,262 supported

DJ Resistances:  18,103.45  All-time high
                             17,916       Last 10 days high
                             17,600

DJ Support:        17,262       Strong, important battlefield
                             16,990       Strong, important battlefield

Technical Analysis:
January low has worked as strong support in this decisive battlefield in the three indexes (DJ, S&P, Nasdaq)
Buyers were attracted in DJ16,262 and they allowed the market to bounce up. Dow Jones over DJ16,990 and specially 17,262 maintains all its upside potential, below those levels the chart changes but it is still bullish in the long run.
The three indexes are supported by its 200 days Moving Averages, they are strong supports.
Technically, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is in an uptrend right now consolidating and challenging important supports.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Positive Chinese economic news gave support to the stock market bulls, China got an increase of 7.4% GDP in 2014. Specially, after FMI adjusted its projections to the downside for 2015.
FMI increased its expectations for U.S.A. GDP in 0.5% to 3.6% for 2015. China will increase 6.8%, EU 1.2%, Japan 0.6%, United Kingdom 2.7%, Canada 2.3%, Russia -3%, India 6.3%, Spain 20% and the emerging markets will be weak. With that, the real interest rates will stay low for at least the end of the third quarter. That and low gas prices, U.S.$750.- for each American family more in 2015, would be good for the stock market. Consumption sentiment is positive and should be higher during the 2015.
Dear traders and investors, the stock market will be driven by the earnings season in the next two or three weeks, It is important in the short term to remain over DJ16.990 to develop the consolidation period and to get a new attempt to the all-time highs.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Actually toppish in the short term

DJ Resistance:  18,103.45  All-time high
                           17,916       High of last week
                           17,800

DJ Support:      17,600      Medium
                           17,278      September peak closing
                           17,262      Strong last week low
                           16,990      Very strong & 200 DMA
                           16,588      Very strong 2013's peak
                           16,320    
                           16,015
                           15,854      Very strong October low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA supported last week at DJ17,262 almost DJ17,278 September peak closing. What does it mean? The index supported on a very strong level and created a positive uptrend line from October low which worked as Tuesday support (please watch the One Year daily Chart). This one shows a constructive market to the upside. The buyers came on the support that we have indicated as big battlefield.
The long term trend is to the upside despite the January great volatility. The bull market is still in place, please watch last week 10 Years Monthly Chart.
It seems to me that market is forming an extended range DJ16,990-18,103.45 considering the clear positive uptrend line coming from 2014 October low.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Non-farm payroll and unemployment rate were a great surprise last Friday, more the revised November figures to 353,000 new jobs was splendid. U.S.A. doing well in contrast to European Union, Japan, China, Russia and some emerging markets like Brazil, Venezuela, oil plays heavy in the world and the geopolitical. I read low interest rates for 2015 and if they are increased would mean strong economy recovery. Low interest rates are positive for stock market and it would potential the positive economy effects in the financial market.
I am not clear for 2015 but I suspect a good year for the stock market and it could growth near 10% during this period.
Economic news are important for the market but we entered in the earnings season and if they are positive during the next two weeks the DJIA is going to look for new highs.
Dear traders and investors, I have to continue with the analysis to get a projection for 2015 but it seems very feasible to see the DJIA near DJ19,500 for the end of the year. Let's work hard to propose a scenario for the 2015!
Remember that we are in earnings season!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones Toppish?

DJ Resistance:  18,103.45

DJ Support:      17,250 (September peak DJ17,278)
                           16,990  Very strong and 200 days MA
                           16,588   2013 peak

Technical Analysis:
Christmas rally drove the DJIA to its historical top DJ18,103.45. The S&P could not get SP2,100 and stopped at SP2,094.
DJ has corrected in the last streak six days. The damage is important and it has done with volume. The index approached two important battle fields, DJ17,250 (almost September peak) and DJ16,990 (please watch the one year daily chart and the ten years chart).  They should attract buyers. 200 days moving average is an important indicator when is trending. Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are supported by the 200DMA. The three have violated the 50 days moving averages. S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE broke down their September peak.
The short term is complicated and we are ad portas of a big battlefield, the more positive is Dow Jones but could it support the other two indexes? I think these supports are important.
The long term trend is still constructive to the upside. Please watch the 10 years monthly chart and you will realize it. Also it is clear that the DJIA touched the upper resistance in the uptrend channel from March 2009.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

 Fundamentals:
2015 has begun with two economic news not so positive. We have to pay attention this week to ADP employment, trade deficit, FOMC Minutes, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and wholesale inventories. We have to navigate in a hectic see.
I am still comfortable with the U.S.A growth but EU, China, Japan, India, Russia and the emerging markets are in the other side besides geopolitical aspects. This allows me to read low interest rates for almost three quarters of the year. I work hard trying to clarify the 2015 economic behavior and environment. Oil is a heavy factor for all the world, its impact is not so clear yet because some countries are going to have more money to stimulate their economies and others less. The equation is not so simply due the social storms that may occur around the world.
Dear traders and investors, we are facing cloudy skies at the 2015 beginning, keep cool! I remember I felt the same in January 2014. Life is dynamic not static and we will be successful together.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises