DJIA New Old-time High

DJ Reistance:  18,934      All-time high

 DJ Support:    18,668     Old all-time high
                          18,636     August highs
                          18,470
                          18,247     August low
                          17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                          17,888.23     November low
                          17,861     200 Days moving average
                          17,579     Inflexion point
                          17,433
                          17,125      Very strong
                          16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                          16,667      Inflexion point
                          16,520
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,450      Strong
                          15,370.33 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
Just during the counting of votes on November 8th. night the market got a sell off. The DJIA went under DJ17,900 and bulls came back producing a bounce upward. A new "V Bounce" is formed like with Brexit reversal. DJIA has done a bounce of 1,050 points from November low and the index entered in uncharted territory again.
Supports are well defined at DJ18,470 and 18,247. The area DJ17,995 - 18,016 is a very strong support.
S&P has not done new all-time high. It is at 8 points of the higher closing SP2,190 and 12 points to the all-time high SP2,194.
The short and long term trend are firmly leaning-bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

  

Fundamentals:
It was clear to me the coming rally once the uncertainty of who would be the new President of U.S.A.
This rally is done on positive perspective in the U.S.A economy and growth.
The market is still in earnings season and in the next 15 days we are going to receive a lot of economic news like producer price index, industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer price index, housing starts, leading indicators, etc. The economy is doing well and the market is optimistic about it.
If the FED is going to hike the interest rates we should short the bonds in the market. The possibilities for that increase are high but we have to evaluate if it will be done in December or with the new administration next year.
After positive news like Retail Sales on Tuesday which were better than expected, the fourth quarter of GDP is estimated now in +3.3%.
Dear traders and investors, rally is in the market, DJIA did new aa-time high. I think that S&P will do it this or next week.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Strong Rebound

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap unfilled
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                         
DJ Support:     18,247      August low
                          18,211      50 Days moving average
                          17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                          17,888.28 November low
                          17,800      200 Days moving average
                          17,579      Inflexion point
                          17,433
                          17,125      Very strong
                          16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                          16,667      Inflexion point
                          16,520
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,451      Strong
                          15,370.33 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
As I explained in the last week blog the possibilities to breake down the support at DJ17,995-18,016 were more probably than a bounce up. The market went down last week doing November low at DJ17,888.28 but what a bounce up on Monday and Tuesday.
The bounce up put DJIA in an uptrend and should be very well supported after technical analysis. It is over DL18,211 (50 days moving average) and DJ18,247 (August low). This engulfing move to the upside in the last 2 days is very bullish but the future of this hectic move depends on the U.S.A. elections
Technically the trend is bullish-leaning, but I would see the afterward of the elections.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals: 
Well, elections ended and now all will going to work.
The market took Hillary Clinton as positive for the stock and Donald Trump as negative. In my opinion the U.S.A. economy is doing well and the economy drives the financial markets.
Volatile is going to be present every moment but the calm will be back. I still expect a rally before the end of the year. We have to see how the world, the markets will assimilate the Donald Trump's triumph and naturally his actions as President of U.S.A. Actually I am optimistic with the U.S.A. economy and with the new administration. U.S.A. is a strong democracy with balanced powers where one does not do what he wants.
Dear traders and investors, not too much to say. Markets reacted negatively but the waters will return to their course. Expect volatility. For example I think the probabilities for higher prices of pharmaceutical corporations like Pfizer are very possible. Stay cool and calm and do not forget the rally is in the way

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones and S&P on Major Support

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap unfilled
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,261      50 days moving average
                           18,247      August low
                           18,160

DJ Support:      17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                           17,960      October low
                           17,758      200 days moving average    
                           17,579      August 2015 inflexion point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflexion point
                           16,520    
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P stay in the range-bound but this time they are approaching the lower band for the third time which is dangerous according technical analysis because the probabilities to break it down are higher than a rebound.
The supports are the area DJ17,995 - 18,016 and DJ17,960 (October low). For S&P the supports are SP2,114 - 2,117 and SP2,080.
The trend still is bullish-leaning barring the support at DJ17,960 breaks down.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Finally elections will take place next week. With a cleared new president I think the market should try the upperside, why? Because in October we had: ISM Manufacturing up to 51.5 from 49.4, ISM Services up to 57.1 from 51.4, GDP raised to 2.9% in above expectations and doubles the pace  from Q2,  and earnings season was positive, the best in 2 years.

Dear traders and investors, we are going to have the elections in one week and the uncertainty will be aside. Market can sell off during this week but remenber the economic news that I listed at the beginning of the blog. You can participate in the sell off if you think that you can buy at better prices. My opinion is that the market will try the upside before the year's end. Will see!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Still Bull Trend

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap unfilled
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,293      50 days moving average
                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:      17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                            17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflexion point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflexion point
                           16,520    
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The chart is very technical. You can see that the market is well supported at DJ17,995 - 18,016 and the resistances are at DJ18,247 (August low) and DJ18,293 (50 days moving average).
The market is working in the range-bound and technically is bullish-leaning barring a break out of the support DJ17,995.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
As I explained last week we are getting positive economic news like the PMI Manufacturing Data for Eurozone which improved from 52.6 to 53.3 which triggered the Monday's up move. On Tuesday. And PMI Manufacturing Data of U.S.A. improved from 51.4 to 53.2. This is good for the U.S. and European economy.
The financial markets do not like uncertainty and November Election is. Besides, the corporate earnings season is showing good results. After the outcome of the election should bring a rally because the important is not the winner but the end of the uncertainty.
The other uncertainty of the market is the interest rates hike in December and consequently the strong dollar.
Dear traders and investors, in my humble opinion I expect a rally before year's end and I would buy in the dips. I expect more range bound until the elections.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Support worked

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap unfilled
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,442      50 Days moving average
                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:
                           17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflexion point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520    
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
Although DJIA tried to break down the support at DJ17,995 getting DJ17,960 temporary, we can say that the area support DJ17,995 - 18,016 worked very well after a clear bounce up.
August low DJ18,247 is the next resistance and the most important for the bulls is DJ18,447 (September gap unfilled).
Technically, the market is supported and the bullish-leaning is still inviolate. If the support area is violated it would be a dangerous alarm risking a correction phase. The support area subsisted a second attempt and showed a bounce up.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are getting positive corporate earnings this season like Yahoo, Netflix, IBM, Goldman Sacks, Harley-Davidson, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, in the other hands Intel shares felt almost 4%  and Halliburton following quarterly results. Not only that but also positive economic news: Retail Sales Report, Consumer Confidence got new high, Consumer Spending, Personal Income. Conversely, Consumer Sentiment sank to a 13 month low of 87.9 and Housing Starts tumble 9%.
Janet Yellen announced the FED risk waiting too long to increase the interest rates. FED is conscious about the inflation risk too but is clear to maintain the economy growing needs a steady and slow path for the increase of interest rates.
The good news and fundamentals weights over the negative but which one will prevail until the election end? We don't know what will happen after the elections because it is not only presidential, the parliament also takes part. If the president does not get the majority it would be very difficult  to fulfill the election promises.
Dear traders and investors, the market should stay in the range until the Election Day, the risk is if the supports do not work. My opinion is that after November 8 we are going to have a rally, possible for Thanksgiving. At that moment we are going to know the actual deep and force of the bulls. During these days I recommend to be in the defensive mood, take yours precautions.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises     

Bears are coming

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap unfilled
                           18,376      50 Days moving average
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:      17,995      Low of the support area
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450     Strong
                           15,370.43 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P stays in the range but they approximated the low range band on Tuesday, it is important the support on DJ17,995 and SP2,117. Those levels are bull-bear gauge and it would be a real battle field. Below those level the alarms will be triggered.
DJIA has to overcome important resistances at DJ18,351 (old all-time high), 18,376 (50 days moving average) and 18,433 to fill the September gap to satisfy the bulls. DJIA tried to fill the gap and failed, on Tuesday it reversed and went down.
We can say that DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have softened but they remain bullish-leaning over their important supports.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

  Fundamentals:
British pound weakness, U.S. Dollar resurgence, oil up prices (Energy is the best performing sector in 2016), IPO market actually impresses. All that is bullish for the stocks. Earnings season is in place, Alcoa suffered losing 11.4% after its quaterly results. But market does not like uncertainty and the Presidential election in November is going to drive the market and if it sees a winner we are going to have a rally. Conversely the market is going to stay in the range until the elections end in November with the risk of supports break down.

Dear traders and investors, Monday's rally gave to me the impression that the risk is back, the reading is bullish. Do not forget while the interest rates are so low the place to invest is the stock market. Volatility is going to be present during the next 4 weeks. Buy only in the deeps.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                 

DJIA and S&P in the range bound, still bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap
                           18,390      50 Days moving average
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:      17,995      Low of the support area
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P stay in the range bound which means that supports at DJ17,995 and SP2,117 are solid and the bias is still bullish-leaning. A violation of them will put the market in alert mode. The range is well defined for those indexes and NASDAQ COMPOSITE got a new all-time high.
For the bulls it is very important to overcome the resistances at DJ18,390 (50 DMA) and 18,447 (September gap). S&P corresponding are SP2,168 and SP2,180.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
There are some good news like last month ISM Manufacturing which got back to positive at 51.5. The market didn't go to the upside with clarity, why? Because we are in a curled or inverted market. All what is positive for the economy is taken against the stock market because the expectation about the interest rates hike. December FED decision seems to be ready for the interest rate increase. This is contradictory of what we expect of the market behavior following the way we were skilled as traders and investors. Pay attention to that and do not forget that this bull market is based on the Earnings Yield dominance over the Bond Yields. This bull market will be in place while the interest rates hike and the inflation will move up in a slow motion.
FTSE 100 rally to near record and  the British pound sinks to U.S.$1.2699, its lowest since June 1985.
We have five weeks for the presidential election and until that date we are going to witness volatility.
Dear traders and investors, September, the worst months for the stock market, is ended. What I expect most likely for October is that the market will stay in the range bound therefore buy only in the dips, not now, because we are near the high. Put your fresh money aside.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises