Dow Jones: bulls are in control

DJ Resistance:  17,120        Record high
                            17,068.26  All-time closing high

DJ Support:        16,985
                            16,805.      Strong
                            16,743       Very strong May peak
                            16,580 - 16,615 Very strong

                            16,312       Strong
                            16,015       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
This Tuesday the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gotten a new record high at DJ17,120. It closed at DJ17,060.68. The S&P is looking for new record high instead.
The DJ scenery is stronger than S&P and NASDAQ Composite. It is clear that DJ is confronting resistances and is going up step by step. Its challenge is to get new record highs and close above its all-time closing high. As DJ stays challenging the resistances the chances for a breakout are imminent.
You can see in the daily chart that de 20 days moving average supported very well, buyers were there. That means that on technical retracement buyers act. It is very positive and constructive for the DJIA.
 The 20, 50 and 200 days moving average point up and should be strong support for the blue-chip benchmark.
The DJIA path is bullish, the trend in the last six months is to the upside.
Pleaase, click over the chat to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
2nd. quarter earnings season and the last economic news in the U.S.A. are positive as we expected. Europe has also improved (watch Spain and UK for example). Today's news about China were positive too. Banks are doing well and that support the market for the moment. Personally, I expect to continue with these positive news during the next ten days that will give fuel to the market to attempt the resistances and possibly find new highs.
Dear traders and investors, not too much to say this time because you have to navigate in these markets technically during the next ten days like an instrument fly. Watch your 5, 15, 60 minutes and daily charts every half hour. I am still positive with the market and expecting to see new highs before the "Summer Doldrums". This is not an interesting game, this is a serious activity. Be professional!

   Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises                     

Summer rally?

DJ Resistance:   17,075        All-time high
                             17,024.21   All-time closing high
                             16,950

DJ Support:         16,818
                             16,743        May peak now strong support
                             16,580        Strong
                             16,312        Strong
                             16,015        Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P did new record highs and the three indexes point up.
The last two days retracement show the consolidation. The new record high breakouts are not followed by powerful follow through as it is regularly. The market is walking in unknown territories step by step.
The first support is at DJ16,818 and the next is at DJ16,743 (May peak)
The three Moving Averages 20, 50 and 200 days point up and support the DJIA.
Technically it is clear to be long over DJ16,743.
Conclusion, The DJIA is consolidating with an upward bias. The trend is clearly up barring a transgression of May peak (DJ16.743).

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market got positive economic news and went to new record highs. I am optimistic with the economic recovery "The latest American employment report leaves little doubt the American jobs machine is back "(The Economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/07/americas-economy?fsrc=scn%2Ftw%2Fte%2Fbl%2Fed%2Fisthistheboom).
I expect also a positive 2nd. quarter earnings season.
But, there is a "but". We have two short term scenarios. The first is to get new records highs fueled by the good shape and finantials results of the American corporations. The second is a correction to shake the stock prices and get solid realistic price levels. It is very possible to get a "Summer rally" in the next three weeks and after that a boring "Summer Doldrums". This year I consider if we have a "Summer rally" it is not going to be a strong up move and during August and September could be the ideal time to sincere the stock prices. What I am telling you is subjective.

Dear traders and investors, I have indicated at the beginning of the year that we were going to see S&P at 1,900 and very probably SP2,000 in 2014. I still expect the SP2,000 but we are facing three months that could be difficult or boring to say the least. I think it is not a bad idea to hedge some positions until September or take profits and enjoy a very nice summer in August to be back renewed at mid-September. As I  have explained I try to assist you in the navigation through theses difficult markets. I will be every week with my commentaries. Think about it!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

To New Highs: unknown territory

DJ Resistance:  16.998.70  All-time record high
                            16.956.07  All-time close high

DJ Support:       16.818
                           16.743       May peak now strong support
                           16.580       Strong
                           16.312       Strong
                           16.015       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are doing an extraordinary performance. DJIA did a new record high but closed just below it. The S&P got a new historical high and closed at that level SP1.979. NASDAQ Composite closed at its best level in fourteen years.
The DJIA has supported in an excellent way at DJ16.743, May peak and breakout level, last Thursday. This bounce up, technically, confirms the technical up trend and it wows to fight to achieve new highs (watch the hourly chart). That means that buyers come in technical levels. We saw new record high today.
Volume increased in the last three sessions that is good for the trading and technical.
The three Moving Averages 20, 50 and 200 days support the uptrend acting.
The trend is clearly up, it is very possible to get a "Summer Rally".

Please click over the charts to enlarge them

Fundamentals:
The last economic news are supportive for the economy or at least neutral.
The markets are going to get important news this short week, Friday is Independence Day: EDP Employment tomorrow, ISM Services, Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payroll for June on Thursday among others like Factory Orders on Wednesday. All of them could catalyzed the markets to a new highs as well as they can trigger the correction.

Dear traders and investors, I feel comfortable with the S&P target to SP2000.-. I would like to avoid typing too much because the path in front of us is clear.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Consolidation with Dow Jones new record high

DJ Resistance:  17,000
                            16,971.17  All-time close high

DJ Support:        16.815       20 Days Moving Average
                            16,743       May peak prior resistance, now support
                            16,580       Strong
                            16,312       Strong
                            16,015       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA has done a new record high on Friday, same was done by S&P. NASDAQ Composite has gotten its best level from 2000.
Support is at DJ16.815 20 Days Moving Average. Next is DJ16.743 May peak, it was resistance, breakout and now is strong support. The 50 and 200 days Moving Averages are good support and point the market up move.
The DJIA over the 6 months positive trend lines, please watch the chart, and the June bounce up from DJ16.743 May peak, previous resistance and breakout level confirm the bullish market behavior.
There is a clear Dow Jones uptrend in the last five years, please watch the ten years chart.
The DJ is in a consolidation right now with a bullish bias. The trend is up.

What worries me is the decreasing stock trade's volume in the last three years. Normally breakouts trigger higher volume than usual and that confirm the new development in the market. You can realize that the S&P like DJIA are doing new highs without a strong follow through in a low volume. Little by little the breakouts are confirmed and both, S&P and DJIA, are in new record highs. That way the S&P will reach the SP2.000 or will be in a healthy correction before.

Fundamentals:
Last week economic news were positive like leading indicators, Fed Philly Survey, Jobless Claims, etc. The market is expecting good economic news this and next week. For example we have GDP Revision on Wednesday (the only one negative), Personal Income, Consumer Spending and so on ending next Thursday with unemployment rate and non-farm payroll. We will face second quarter earnings season in ten days. All these could be the catalyzers to visit S&P2.000.
Meanwhile the market is going to be in a consolidation phase as I explained last week.
Dear traders and investors, I am confident that the market will go up and we will see new historical highs. No more comments for now because the market is resting consolidating. The earnings season and the economic news will act to see it, or to get a short lived correction.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Dow Jones still bullish

DJ resistance:  17.000
                          16.970,17  All-time closing peak
                          16.900       Light

DJ Support:      16.743      Former all-time closing high
                          16.580      Strong
                          16.312      Strong
                          16.015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The positive trend up line from six months stays integrated and immaculate (watch six months chart).

What we can realize is that DJIA has tested its breakout level, DJ16.743 before resistance and now support, and bounced up. The last three close were on the upside. What does it mean? Buyers came at new support DJ16.743. Technically that is wonderful for the uptrend continuation. Retracements are to buy on the technical supports as I indicated last week.
The 20 days moving average supported the index drop at DJ16.730 (watch six months chart). 50 days moving averages should work also as a good support At DJ16.560.
This consolidation is positive and constructive for the DJ trend which is navigating in unknown territories.

All these put the Dow Jones Index Average (DJIA) in a bullish mood.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The participants are focusing in the market swings with a bullish bias not paying attention to the geopolitical conflicts as always. Russia-Ukraine, Syria and the last Palestine-Israel confrontations could affect the markets.
The U.S. economy is doing better than bad, the corporate earnings are acceptable and great part of them are plenty of cash, and the low interest rates are supporting the market. The markets expect a recovery with the 2014 GDP at 3% or better.
The market is in a consolidation phase now after the breakout, I expect a positive earnings season in July. The corporate earnings are going to work as catalyzers to explore new horizons in the market. If that, we will have a Summer Rally, otherwise the market will go in a correction and we will get a boring August and September.
Dear traders and investors, please concentrate in the positive trend line and consider the breakdown of DJ16.015 as a possible deep correction.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

Dow Jones did new historical highs

DJ Resistance: 17,000
                           16,970.17  All-time closing peak

DJ Support:       16,900      Near term
                           16,743      Former all-time closing high              
                           16,620      Strong
                           16,312      April's low
                           16.015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA and S&P have gotten new historical highs after the last rally. The S&P is looking for SP2,000 and DJ is very near to DJ17,000. Both are navigating in new territories.
The first support is at DJ16,900, it is light but necessary to get the DJ17,000. The next one is DJ16.743, this time it should be very strong. It was the former all-time high resistance, now support.
Please watch on the six month chart the "Positive Trend Line", long over it.
The longer-term trend points up undoubtedly. The retracement are to buy and increase long positions or for the newer participants while continuing to assess the market in its pullbacks.
It would be healthy a consolidation phase over DJ17,000 before the possible "summer rally". Volume has increased in the last two weeks which is positive to sustain the rally.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it

Fundamentals:
"Sell in May and go away" didn't pay to traders and investors this year. The market is doing new record highs according with the improvement in the economy, the corporate earnings and the cheap money. The interest rates are still low. The emerging markets (BRICs) are not anymore the stars, they are confronting some problems and its rapid growth is committed. The capitals are flying again to U.S.A. and Europe.
Dear traders and investors, finally we got what we were expecting with patience and inner strengh. I think that the market is going to consolidate its accomplishments and we will see in July with the earnings season as catalyzer if we have a beautiful summer rally. For the moment I suggest you to focus on the positive trend line that is defined in the six month chart.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises  

New highs in slow motion

DJ Resistance:  16,743.63 All-time high

DJ Support:        16,700      Light
                            16,620      Wednesday and Thursday lows
                            15,500      50DMA and positive trend line
                            16,312      Strong April low
                            16,174      November low
                            16,015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA and S&P have done new record highs without an expectacular breakout followed by a decisive follow through, let's say bulls disrupt bears.

Initial support comes at DJ16,700 approximately with a more important support at DJ16,620 Wednesday and Thursday lows.
The DJ last six months are positive and shows that the trend is up and constructive (please watch the positive trend line on the chart). The direction is firmly bullish.
The DJIA is also well supported by 20, 50, and 200 days moving averages.
We can conclude that the DJIA points to continue in the new territories with a slow speed. Markets needs more volume in its transactions.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it,

Fundamentals:
The market seems to be bullish monotonous. In the next three days the markets are going to be affected by some high-profile economic news: U.S. ADP Employment report, Beige Book, trade deficit, productivity, European Central Bank measures to combat possible low inflation and to stimulate the economy, Group of Seven meeting in Brussels, and finally unemployment rate with non-farm payroll. The boredom of the markets could disappear with them.
Dear traders and investors, I don't want to take away your time. The S&P and DJIA are in new territories but almost in the last months range. They need a larger action. They are going to have the catalyzers for an up or down move in these three next days. Personally, I am bullish but I cannot read the future. I have only expectations based in the rational analysis. Stay in your cockpits during these three days.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises