S&P touched 2,000 points

DJ Resistance:  17,153.80 All-time record high
                           17, 138      All-time record closing high

DJ Support:       17,070      Light (hourly)
                           16,980      Hourly
                           16,743      Strong May peak
                           16,588      Strong 2013 peak
                           16,355      Strong
                           16,015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The S&P has reversed its August first week down move with a rally to the SP2,005. What's more, this up move have formed a "Bullish V-Shaped Reversal" which is almost confirmed with the S&P closing at SP2,000. DJIA had done the same movement but it is still lagging, S&P is the leader. DJ "V-shaped rebound" from August first days is forming a possible "V-Shaped Reversal" but it is not yet confirmed. For that, DJIA needs to close several days over today's historical record high DJ17,153.80. What does it mean? DJIA could do 750 points in new record territory, the target should be DJ17,900 and for the S&P 60 more points at least.
200 days moving average and the one year positive trend line work as excellent supports for the DJ.
S&P and DJIA show its uptrend very clearly and the potential for an up move with nice rewards.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Economy and corporations are doing well. U.S home prices increased 1% in June and U.S. Durable-goods orders jumped 26% in July on Boeing contracts. We are still getting some positive corporate earnings results. Recovery is on track.
August is not an easy month, watching the chart from 80 years ago until now, August is more positive than negative and better than other months. I would suggest to confirm this August rally in September or October because we could get easily a market reverse this month and due to volume is also faltering.
Dear traders and investors, at the beginning of 2014 I indicated that we were going to see S&P at 1,900 and very probably SP2,000. We have gotten both of them. I am surprised since I expected to be there in October or November as latest. That shows how hard is to work in the financial markets, economy is a social science not a mathematical. I am still with the bulls, I need to asses the stock market prices in September to clarify my mind.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Geopolitical still in play but lighter

DJ Resistance:  17,151.57   All-time record high
                            17,130        All-time record closing high
                            16,970        Former breakout
                         
DJ Support:       16,856        50 days moving average
                            16,743        Strong May peak
                            16,588        Strong 2013 peak
                            16,355        Strong
                            16,015        Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The 200 days moving average supported very well last week and the market bounced up. This reconfirms the indicator's importance when it is trending. This support coincided with the year positive trend line, please watch the one year daily chart.
DJ has overcome its 50 days moving average on Tuesday which strengths its perspective to the upside. If the DJ penetrates DJ16,970 (former breakout) it could attempt its all-time record closing high.
The up movement of the S&P and the NASDAQ Composite's breakout doing 14 year high put the market in a bullish way, the DJ is lagging both indexes.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
DJ corrected about 3% before last bounce up.
The jobless claims increased to 311,000 last Thursday and Walmart announced lower earnings for the rest of the year.
Earnings season is almost gone but the earnings were enough strong to show health in the corporations environment. The 66% of the corporations in the S&P have announced better earnings than analyst's expectation. That shows an evident growth. Corporation's sales are in a good shape because they are higher 4% than a year ago and that explains that the earnings come from them and not from saving costs.
Interest rates are low and there are not inflation's expectations for the short term. For the long term there is not a clear picture after the FED is going to stop buying bonds.
Earnings, low interest and the controlled inflation are fueling the stock prices. I expect an interest rates movement after the FED stops bond buying. That doesn't mean that interest rates are going to increase immediately because wages are not increasing.
Dear traders and investors, we know that American corporations are healthy and are plenty of cash. In the other hand the investors are expecting an increase in the interest rates. We have to watch the interest rates behavior after the FED finishes the bond buying. I am still bullish.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Geopolitical

DJ Resistance:   17,151.57 All-time record high
                   17,130   All-time closing high
                   16,877
                   16,743   Strong May peak
                   16,588   Strong last year peak

DJ Support:         16,362       200 Days moving average

                             16,333.78   Last week low

                             16,015        Very strong

Technical Analysis:

Last week the 200 days moving averages supported de Dow Jones Index Averages at about DJ16,340 please watch the Daily Chart. Technically this is good for the Dow Jones because this indicator is respected by the market. The problem as I see is that the DJIA is still below DJ16,588 (last year peak). It has to overcome at least DJ16,588 resistance to look for stabilization. It is better to overcome DJ16,743 (May peak).

We have to pay attention to the volume. It decreased in the last two sessions.

The market shifted trend in the short term with the breakdown in the July last days but the trend is still up in the long term (watch the one year daily chart).

I expect to clear you with this panoramic vue. August is not an easy month to navigate and it is very probably that we are going to get hectic movements in the next four weeks due the low volume. It is not necesary deeper technical analysis.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:

Geopolitical is heavy and press the market. The market is expecting important July economic news this and next week.

Investors are worried about inflation. The ten years bond is paying 2.42% p.a. which means that market is not expecting a rates hike by the Federal Reserve otherway it would be over 3% and maybe 5%. These low rates are excellent for the stock market and we could think about an uptrend of the stock market for the rest of the year.

Investors fears a correction due the last five years bull market. I agree with them in some moment we are going to see sells in the market. But for that we need to realise an increase in the ten year bond rate approaching to its rate average over 5% p.a.

Dear traders and investors, market fears a correction that would be very positive for the stock market. At this moment the facts are more for the upside although the short term trend but we are in the "Summer Doldrums" and we have to be alert to deal with any kind of movement.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Dow Jones technically bearish

DJ Resistance:     17,151.57    All-time record high
                               17,130         All-time closing high
                               16,877
                               16,743        Strong May peak
                               16,588        Strong last year peak
                               16,450        Light

DJ Support:           16,370        Light
                               16,343        Strong 50 days MA
                               16,015        Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The breakout DJ16,743 and DJ16,580 to the downside that we have witnessed from last Thursday put the DJIA in a bearish mood. Bears battled bulls in those levels which means presence of a lot of sellers. The technically damages are heavy in the picture.
The positive trend line coming during the last six months is broken but the last five years and one year positive trend lines are still in play.
DJIA needs to overcome DJ16,743 or at least DJ16,588 to stabilize.
The last six days volume is acceptable, let's say normal and we got a considerable downside movement.
You can realize the importance of 50 days moving average, once broke the indicator acting as support the index came down (watch 1 year daily chart).
The trend in the short term is to the downside.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
We are in August, difficult month, and waiting for important economic news this and next week. Earnings season is still alive.
The geopolitical, corporate earnings and the possibility for a rate hike played heavy against the market. The current setback is important and could indicate the trend in the short term. What has impressed me is the presence of sellers in the technical levels which is the only explanation for the breakouts. It shows a tidy market pointing down in the short term.
Dear traders and investors, August is a difficult month for trading, we are at the beginning of the "Summer Doldrums". Let's see if the DJIA and the other two index could get stabilization. We have to be prepared for the typical erratic movement in August. The historical data shows August as a good month to get profitability, the problem is that it is easy to make mistakes due to the nature of this month. Keep calm and cool!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Next Friday: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls

DJ Resistance: 17,151.56 All-time record high
                           17,130
                           17,055

DJ Support:       16,877    Monday's low, 50 days moving average
                           16,805    Strong
                           16,743    Very strong May peak
                           16,580    Strong
                           16,343    Very strong
                           16,015    Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The S&P did a new record high at SP1,991, the DJIA did not. That means that DJ is weaker than S&P right now. Watch the S&P like the leader looking for the SP2,000.
The market is still consolidating in the range (DJ16,743 - 17,130).
The 50 days moving average acts and acted in the year to date chart as excellent support which is bullish for the blue-chip benchmark.
The DJIA scenery is positive and shows the uptrend.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is showing recovery. The proof of that is the bunch of latest constructive economic figures and positive earnings season.
This and next week, the market is going to receive important economic news to sustain the recovery besides the corporate earnings. You can watch the list like ADP employment, GDP, personal income, consumer spending, consumer sentiment and so on. The most relevant would be on Friday: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls. All of them could be the catalyzers for attempt new record highs.
Dear traders and investors, "Summer Rally" time is finished. This week and next, we could see an up move but I don't expect an explosion. I think that August could be a very boring month and very difficult to navigate in the market because the risk of a correction is going to be present during all the "Summer Doldrums". Geopolitical issues are heavy and they could trigger confrontations. The market volume is going to decrease and easily we could be in front of hectic movements. This kind of volatility is not good for trading. I suggest you to take some rest in the next six weeks. I think we will lose hair this "Summer Doldrums", nothing is written, we'll see and we'll trade accordingly to the signals and market trend. We are going to work more with fundamentals next month.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

One week more

DJ Resistance:  17,152     All-time record high

DJ Support:       17,040     Light Tuesday's low
                           16,971     Strong
                           16,805     Strong
                           16,743     Very strong May peak
                           16,580     Very strong
                           16,312     Strong
                           16,015     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) got new all-time record high. Its scenery is stronger than S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE.
The DJ supported at its preceding breakout DJ16,971 on last Thursday, Friday and Monday, days with geopolitical pressure: Ukraine- Russia. Technically it confirms that we are in a consolidation phase and the trend is to the upside (watch the daily and 15 minutes chart).
Regularly, when the market is trending and stop consolidating, once the consolidation finishes it continues on the trend that brought before. It is to the upside in the near term.
The market's action is bullish. The S&P target is SP2,000. DJIA is very well supported by 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
Please click on the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:

Economic news and corporate earnings that we are getting are in generally positive and constructive as we have expected. I expect them to continue to be good in the next days. They show the market uptrend path.

Dear traders and investors, this week we are going to be short in words, I have explained all the points for this uptrend in the previous blog actualizations. I ask you to navigate with the charts this July last week because we are in a very technical time. This is the "Summer Rally" and it should last until next week. I expect to see new records high and possible the S&P very near to SP2,000. August comes with the "Summer Doldrums", the volume decreases because the senior traders take holidays and participants can move the market easily. August can be boring and we could be surprised with the volatility. I suggest you to take some rest to be ready for the fight in the last four months of the year. The trend is up based on technical analysis and fundamentals and the market is in unknown territories, do not forget it!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Dow Jones: bulls are in control

DJ Resistance:  17,120        Record high
                            17,068.26  All-time closing high

DJ Support:        16,985
                            16,805.      Strong
                            16,743       Very strong May peak
                            16,580 - 16,615 Very strong

                            16,312       Strong
                            16,015       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
This Tuesday the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gotten a new record high at DJ17,120. It closed at DJ17,060.68. The S&P is looking for new record high instead.
The DJ scenery is stronger than S&P and NASDAQ Composite. It is clear that DJ is confronting resistances and is going up step by step. Its challenge is to get new record highs and close above its all-time closing high. As DJ stays challenging the resistances the chances for a breakout are imminent.
You can see in the daily chart that de 20 days moving average supported very well, buyers were there. That means that on technical retracement buyers act. It is very positive and constructive for the DJIA.
 The 20, 50 and 200 days moving average point up and should be strong support for the blue-chip benchmark.
The DJIA path is bullish, the trend in the last six months is to the upside.
Pleaase, click over the chat to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
2nd. quarter earnings season and the last economic news in the U.S.A. are positive as we expected. Europe has also improved (watch Spain and UK for example). Today's news about China were positive too. Banks are doing well and that support the market for the moment. Personally, I expect to continue with these positive news during the next ten days that will give fuel to the market to attempt the resistances and possibly find new highs.
Dear traders and investors, not too much to say this time because you have to navigate in these markets technically during the next ten days like an instrument fly. Watch your 5, 15, 60 minutes and daily charts every half hour. I am still positive with the market and expecting to see new highs before the "Summer Doldrums". This is not an interesting game, this is a serious activity. Be professional!

   Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises