Dow Jones well supported and attempting resistance

DJ Resistance: 18,351     All-time high
                        18,206     Breakout
                        18,104     2014 peak
                        17,810     Important

DJ Support:     17,579     August breakdown
                        17,575     200 days moving average
                        17,125     Light
                        17,050     Strong
                        16,933.43 September high
                        16,672     50 days moving average
                        16,667     Breakout
                        16,460     Light
                        15,980     Strong
                        15,651.24 Important
                        15,370.33 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA did a grounded bounce and perked up the important resistance DJ15,579 and 200 days moving average DJ15,575 and is sleeping just over them. That is positive and bullish. If DJIA stays over them and breaks up resistance DJ17,810 the charts were repaired and the market bias would be bullish and strong.
S&P backdrop is similar to the DJIA. S&P and DJIA did two months high which put both indexes in bullish bias.
DJ17,579 is an inflexion point because it was the August drop level to the September low and bulls are trying to repair the charts with DJIA over its inflection point. Next resistance is DJ17,810 which coincides with the negative trend line coming from the all-time high (watch the chart).

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The positive U.S. Corporation earnings season and the decreased interest rate by Central Bank of China encouraged the stock market for piercing the important resistance DJ17,579, inflection point, on last Friday. 1,076 corporations will report this week. And Yesterday and today's slight retracement are due to the Fed monetary policy announcement this Wednesday.
Economic news coming are no so positive like today's U.S.Durable Goods Orders that fall more than expected in September. We will know the GDP Q3 on Thursday which is estimated a positive 1.7% and it is slower than the growth  +3.9% GDP Q2.
Dear traders and investors, Third quarter earnings season is positive and that is good for the stock market, technically DJIA and S&P is supporting over the old inflection points and clear resistances. But economics are mixed and without them we can not expect a healthy rally in the stock market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

DJ17,579 Major Resistance

DJ resistance: 18,351      All-time high
                       18,206      Breakout
                       18,104      2014 peak
                       17,810      Important
                       17,585      200 days moving average
                       17,579      Breakdown
                       17,265      2 months high

DJ Support:    17,125      Light
                       16,933.43 September high
                       16,679      50 days moving average
                       16,667      Breakout
                       16,460      Light
                       15,980      Strong
                       15,651.24 Important
                       15,370.33 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
Major resistance DJ17,579, before support, is the next bulls' target. If market breaks up this level and stays over it, we can consider that the damages of the charts are repaired. 200 days moving average is also a major resistance for DJIA.
For S&P the major resistance is SP2,040 and 200 days moving average.
If DJIA stays in the surrounding area of DJ17,579, the odds of a breakup increases. Pay attention to that.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Corporate earnings and economic news are coming with disappointments. But consumption, especially consumer discretionary sector, is expected to improve this and next year. For example, there are rumors that Amazon is looking to get 100,000 temporary jobs for the holidays. National Federation's Consumer Spending Survey is expecting a better consumption this year. The average spending per American during holidays is expected U.S.$805.65, U.S.$3.20 more than last year.
Dear traders and investors, we will have the earnings of very important corporations this week, until now the corporate results have been mixed. Positive earnings came from Adobe Systems Inc., United Health Group Inc., Netflix Inc., Lennar Corp., negative came from IBM, but the market is feeling and expecting a constant consumption for the last trimester of 2015 and complete 2016, that would be the key for a solid stock market. I prefer to avoid long conversations this week and watch the corporate earnings during October.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Ad Portas of an Important Resistance

DJ Resistance:  18,351       All-time high
                         18,206      Breakout
                         18,104      2014 peak
                         17,810      Important
                         17,600      200 days moving average
                         17,579      Very important
                         17,125      Very important

DJ Support:      16,933.43 September high
                         16,700      50 moving average
                         16,667      Breakout
                         16,460      Light breakout
                         15,980      Strong
                         15,651.24 Importnat
                         15,370.33 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
Next resistance is DJ17,125 key resistance is DJ 17,579 and 200 days moving average DJ17,600.
DJIA has to sleep over DJ17,579 to consider solid repairs on charts.
We can consider the medium term with a positive bias is DJIA stays over supports DJ16,667 (breakout) and DJ16,700 (50DMA)
DJIA positive uptrend is stronger than S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE. Both indexes have double bottom forming a clear "W", you can see them easily in the charts, DJ16,667 and SP1,870. This powerful and we are seeing the bounce.
The breakout of resistances indicated at the beginning would strength the bull case.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Please read my fundamentals of last week again. We entered in earnings season, these and good economic news are the catalyzers for a bounce before year's end. I expect a rally during the last three months of 2015 but we could enter in a bear market, then we have to be ready to shift direction and protect our portfolios. DJIA and S&P have a seven days with step rise and are putting aside clear resistances. Now is the time for fundamentals to support an upward movement.
Dear traders and investors, I am not frankly clear right now, we still are in October in a bounce but below DJ17,579, the up move could be evaporated. We have to watch the earnings season and if they are better than those of the second quarter, we will get the bounce and attempt to the all-time highs. The U.S. consumer has increased 3% approximately and consumer is still two thirds of the U.S. GDP. That is positive for the bulls, let's see the corporations' results in the third quarter.Caution is warranted.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Bull-bear at the cross

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                         18,206     Breakout
                         18,104     2014 Peak
                         17,810     Important
                         17,579     Very important
                         17,050     Very strong
                         16,933.43 September high
                         16,790     50Days moving average (50DMA)

DJ Support:      16,667     Old upper limit trading range
                         16,460     Light
                         15,980     Lower limit trading range
                         15,942.37 September low
                         15,651.24 Important
                         15,370.33 Very strong

Technical analysis:
DJIA did an impressive bounce up from the support (lower limit of the trading range) and broke the upper limit of the trading support DJ16,667 and today closed at 16,790.
For the bulls is very important to break DJ16,796 (50 DMA) and DJ16,993.43 (September high). They could indicate an inflection point. Those levels are going to be the place of a bull-bear confrontation. If these resistances are broken up, the chart repairs could be considered solid and the bulls will look for a rally before year's end. If not, the landscape would be a bearish consolidation because the important mentioned resistances are a wall.
DJIA is fighting with the 50 days moving average and with the downward trend line that you can see in the chart.
The first support is DJ16,667, before it was a very important resistance.
S&P is capped at SP1,993 and is below its 50 days moving average like NASDAQ COMPOSITE. DJIA is the strongest index right now because it broke up the upper limit of the trading range and is just over its 50 days moving average.
The backdrop is still bearish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Employment and U.S.A. manufacturing came in a not positive figures as the economy needs. These triggered the market to the upside on Friday because investors extrapolated that the interest rates increase by the FED will be at least for December or next year.
I think we don't have seen real selling in the stock market. Volume, during trade sessions, has increased lately but not enough to think about panic and capitulation. Instead, I would think that hunter bargains are ready like snappers.
World Bank and FMI annual meeting is taking place in Lima right now and the economic prospects for the world are weak but showing improvement for 2015, 2016 and the future.
Dear traders and investors, my position is to be alert with a bearish bias although DJIA is breaking up resistances at the top of the range. Bulls need better and fluid economic news to get a good bounce. Earnings season is coming and it could help them. For the moment we are waiting for new economic news and analyze them. I am very sorry because this year the trading in the financial markets is so hard and I have realized soon the toppishness of the market but I could not assist you defining a clear direction. I try my best, this year is actually awful. The market is stuck in a range with the risk of a bear market. Stay cool, we still have three months to work before year's end and do money.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones technically on support

DJ Rsistance:  18,351     All-time high
                       18,206     Breakout
                       18,104     2014 Peak
                       17,810     Important
                       17,579     Very important
                       17,050     Very strong
                       16,667     Upper limit of the tranding range
                       16,460     Light

DL Support    15,980     Lower limit of the trading range
                       15,942    September low
                       15,651    Important
                       15,370    Very important

Technical analysis:
DJIA is still working in its range DJ15,980-16,667. We can affirm that the lower limit supported although today's attempt to break it down.
The support at 15,651 is the next bear's target. Volume increased which means that buyers and sellers came in and fought.
In the long run the DJIA bias is bearish, the bulls need DJIA overcomes DJ16,667 and sleeps over DJ17,050. Technical repairs of the charts are needed if the long term bull market is going to continue.
Charts show a bearish bias in the medium term and possibly in the long run. We have to watch the actual support in the "10 Years Monthly Chart".

Please, click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Fateful October for stocks and financial markets is "ad portas". Participants and investors do not like uncertainty which is the case right now, they need to clear if the trend is up or down, never doubt.
Important Economic data is coming in October, unemployment rate, non-Farm payroll, U.S.A. and China manufacturing, and so on.
Dear traders and investors, we are going to face a hectic October. There is not much to say because the volatility is high, up or down, due the uncertainty and the August and September weakness. Earnings season is also coming. Bottom? It not easy to define where. I think that the volatility will continue and probably we are going to see lower levels, but I expect a bounce in the next three months.  The market direction depends on economic data coming. The important is to stay cool, do not take emotional decisions, do not liquidate your assets in the down days that is capitulation. I still see a robust U.S.A. economy that is my foundation to expect a bounce. European Community is doing better, EM (Emerging Markets) are complicated specially Brazil. Volkswagen weighs in the financial markets, we'll see what happen with it and it is going to propose a solution for the 11 million diesel cars.
Stay cool! That attitude is needed in these times.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Long term bearish?

DJ resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                          18,206     Breakout
                          18,104     2014 peak
                          17,810     Important
                          17,579     Very important
                          17,050     Very strong
                          16,667     Upper side of the range
                          16,210     Light
                          15,980     Lower side of the range
                          15,651     Important
                          15,370     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The trading range DJ15,980-16,667 is still in place in spite of the breakout attempt after the FED's policy decision and the bearish reversal.
If DJIA stays below DJ16,667, the bears could drive the market in a bearish direction. Bulls need to percolate the important resistance DJ 16,667 and sleep over DJ17,050 to get the opportunity for a bounce to try again DJIA over DJ18,000.
The DJIA like S&P backdrop are taking a bearish hue for the medium term barring the breakout the resistance DJ 16,667.
We are going to analyze the 10 Years monthly chart next week just before the September close. Until now, support is working.
Please, use the chart to navigate into the market, it is not easy.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market is driven by interest rates raise and China economy. The Chinese President, Ji Xinping, visit to U.S.A. besides Pope's visit are going to dominate the domestic press about international news.
Important economic news are coming this week and next like U.S. PMI PSG Flash, Durable Goods, U.S. Consumer Sentiment, U.S. PMI Services Flash, U.S.Q2 GDP final revision. But they are not going to break the range DJ15,651-17,050., for that market needs the unemployment figures or the very important U.S. PMI Manufacturing that we are going to know in October.
Dear traders and Investors, I am worry because technically the market is showing a possible bearish shift in the medium term and maybe in the long run. Long term bull market is still supported but it is on the limit support, buyers should be drawn.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Interest rates: Ahead of the FED

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 high
                           17,810     Important
                           17,579     Very important
                           17,050     Strong
                           16,667    Upper side trading range

DJ Support:     16,210     Light
                          15,980     Lower side trading range
                          15,651
                          15,370

Technical Analysis:
DJIA stayed in the trading range DJ15,980-16,667 waiting for the FED decision. The limits of the trading range are clear. S&P did the same and both indexes are attacking the range top but it seems that the sellers were drawn on the resistance levels. Its technical bias points to the low side barring a close over DJ16,667.
DJIA needs to atop DJ17,579 to show solid chart repairs.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy and global economy, specially China, Japan and emerging markets like Brazil are driven the financial markets. U.S.A. is doing well and recovering, summer payroll, retail and construction reports show positive path. Q2 2015 GDP grew 3.7% and consumption did +3.1% in the same period. , that is positive for the stocks but markets don't trust China recovery.
Dear traders and in investors, volatility, up and downside, will continue in the next weeks. Correction has ended? We don't know. It is very hard to time the market. We have to follow the ups and down movement and when we'll have the bottom confirmation we should buy and take the bargains. Right now I don't recommend to chase bargains. Market is expecting FED meeting on 16th. and17th. September and its decision about the interest rates increase. Next meeting are in October and December. Personally, I think the rate increase should be for December if there is.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises