Still Bullish View

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,167      Last week peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                       
DJ Support:      17,978      November 2015 peak
                           17,810
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,400
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,468
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
First support is at November 2015 peak DJ17,978 and is working. Next is DJ17,810.
DJIA like S&P are trying to break resistances and have done small retracements but it has been orderly. That is important for the bulls. Remember the action against the resistances is the most important in technical analysis.
DJIA is stronger than S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE.
Volume is constant and acceptable. Uptrend continues without considering good, bad and neutral economic news.The trend is to the upside.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:

The stock market was driven by earnings season. This and next week will be driven by important economic news like today Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence, Wednesday Bank of Japan and FOMC announcements.Thursday Q1 GDP and PMI Services Flash. Friday Personal Income, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment. During the weekend we will get China Manufacturing and Japan PMI Manufacturing and so on.

S&P range is SP2,080-2,100 and DJIA is DJ17,810-18,167.

Dear traders and investors, the market seems to be calm and neutral. I think that the new economic news are going to show the direction and the market is going to move.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Potentially Bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 high
                         
DJ Support:      17,978      November 2015 high
                           17,810    
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,400      Strong
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,468
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The breakout of DJ17,810 and S&P2,080 reinforce the bullish view and momentum. Next important resistances are DJ18,206, 18,312and DJ18,351 all-time high.
Strong support at DJ17,810, DJ17,400 and very strong at DJ17,125. And for S&P at SP2,040 very strong and SP2,020.
The chart shows the high possibility of a follow-through with the target DJ18,351.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
 Last economic news are coming weaker than expected for example Consumer Sentiment below expectations with four straight months, last lecture is 89.7, below 100 is negative. Besides the retail sales weakness. U.S. housing starts and new permits sink 9%, Industrial Production -0.6%, bank stocks have plummet and so on.
Interest rates are observed by investors and they doubt about interest rates hike due the last weakness news. Then investors look for the stock market which is the best place to stay now.
In my opinion the stock market is bullish due the corporate earnings season as I have explained in my prior blogs and they do not expect a soon increase in the interest rates. They need the confirmation of better expectations in the corporate earnings growth to get higher stock prices.
Dear traders and investors, I think that is possible to visit the all-time high but to maintain the bullish momentum the market needs a combination of low interest rates, better corporate earnings growth and GDP between 1 to 2 % at least. I think that this rally from February will finish in a sideways market after earnings season would finish. The other possibility is to take south for a while.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Bullish in consolidation range

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,978      November 2015 peak
                           17,810

DJ Support:     17,579      Inflection point
                          17,400      Strong
                          17,125      Old strong resistance
                          17,123      200 days moving average
                          16,933.43 September 2015 peak
                          16,667      Very strong inflection point
                          16,468
                          16,200      Light
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,450      Strong
                          15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA continued fighting against resistance DJ17,810 but sellers without strong conviction were attracted near this level. Support is at DJ17,400. This is the consolidation range. For S&P the range is SP2,020-2,080.
DJIA and S&P have respected their negative trend lines lastly as support.
The price action is technical in the last five or six weeks and constructive to the upside.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
IMF reduced its forecast for global growth to 3.2% for 2016 from 3.4%, China still weak GNP between 6 to 7% and EU growing but a slow speed. What could move the market is the earnings season.
As I have indicated in the prior weeks the long term market is bearish, please watch the negative trend line in the chart, and the midterm is leaning-bullish. Please pay attention to de resistance DJ17,810.
DJIA and S&P went up on Tuesday because the oil price raised. The relacion stock prices with oil is clear because the oil increses its price when the economy is growing and higher demand is expected consecuently the stocks goes with oil. But in these moments this relation does not need to be because the oil reserves are plenty and expectations are for more cheap energy.
As the market is toppish from last year and the general trend is to the downside I enlist the arguments for a possible bear market:
- Bull market age.
- Toppish patterns, please watch the chart and the last week chart were you can see the head and shoulders formation and its reverse to the upside.
- Economic news are weaker every months.
- Corporate earnings are lower in the last three trimester.
- Stocks are full valued and bulls would like to buy them at a better price.

Dear traders and investors, I expect DJIA and S&P will remain in its consolidation ranges and I suggest you to avoid trades while the indexes stay in the ranges. The long and short positions should be taken if the indexes break the supports or resistances.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

DJIA at Major Resistance

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 peak
                           17,978     November 2015 peak
                           17,810

DJ Support:     17,579      Inflection point
                          17,400      Strong
                          17,125      Old strong resistance  
                          17,123      200 days moving average
                          16,933.43 September 2015 peak
                          16,667      Very strong inflection point
                          16,468
                          16,200      Light
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,450      Strong
                          15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis: 
The DJIA bull trend is fighting against major resistance at DJ 17,810. S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are in the same fight. Sellers are coming at these major resistances but buyers do not give up.
As I have explained in my prior blogs this negative trend line coming from the DJIA all-time high is a very strong and decisive resistance, that it would be a harsh battlefield that will gauge de bulls and bears. If DJIA breaks it up, the trend in the long term could change to a bullish-leaning. DJ17,400-17,810 is the battlefield range.
Very strong support at DJ17,125 and 17,123
Midterm trend is bullish and long term still bearish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Market got some positive economic news like ISM Services to 54.5 from 53.4, ISM Manufacturing to 51.8 from 49.5. And some negative on U.S.A. Q1 GDP estimates, weak German industrial production figures and also from Japan. It explains the stock market weakness in the last days especially in Europe and japan.
Earnings season begins next week and it will drive the market. It seems to me that interest rate raise will not take place soon due economic.
Dear traders and investors, the market is in a not easy position and needs conviction of economic improvement to look for the next leg up. My opinion is that the stock market will stay in the range of DJ17,400 to 17,810 waiting for the corporate earnings season.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

At Major Resistance: Negative Trendline

DJ Resistance:  18,351      Al-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,978      November 2015 peak
                           17,810
                           17,649      March 2016 peak

DJ Support:     17,579      Inflection point
                          17,400
                          17,128      200 Days moving average
                          17,125      Old strong resistance
                          16,933.43 September 2015 peak
                          16,667      Very strong inflection point
                          16,468
                          16,200      Light
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,450      Strong
                          15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
March rally confirms the midterm trend is bullish.  The long term is toppish and still bearish-leaning. The market has closed the first trimester with a strong downdraft and a nice bounce at the close. Basically the DJIA and S&P closed flat.
DJIA strong support are DJ17,128 (200 days moving average) and DJ17,125 (old strong resistance).
If DJIA goes through DJ17,649 (march 2015 peak) we could face a solid upward move that could change the long term trend. Please pay attention the negative trend line. The last behavior of DJIA and S&P are supporting by a clear bullish momentum.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Japan and EU (European Union) are with negative interest rates and apply QE (quantitative easing) to stimulate the economy through bank lending. Eureka Yen and Euro became stronger, and in Japan the demand for high-denomination banknotes surprised the BOJ (Bank of Japan).
The Atlanta FED decreased its estimation for the first quarter GDP from 1.9% to 1.4%.
The market is confused with the rate rise by FED. If they rise it means that economy is well, if they don't means economy has weakness or there are risks.
We will face important economic news as unemployment rate and non-farm payroll this Friday, earnings season is coming in the next 10 days. All these information could help the bulls to try to break the negative trend line.
Dear traders and investors, the market is positive and bullish, big battle in the area DJ17,800.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

W got target and ....

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,978      November 2015 peak
                           17,810
                       
DJ Support:      17,579      Inflection point
                           17,139      200 Days moving average
                           17,125      Old resistance
                           17,050      Old strong resistance
                           16,933.43 September 2015 peak
                           16,667      Very strong inflection point
                           16,468
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes are strengthen and DJIA and S&P have broken out important resistances. DJIA double bottom (W) has reached its target which is very positive and shows the uptrend although the overbought condition in the short term. The battle ground to the upside begins at DJ17,810. All this area is formed by important resistances specially the negative trend line coming from the all-time high DJ18,351. For S&P are SP2,054 and SP2,080.
DJIA supports starts at DJ17,139 200 days moving average, DJ17,125 old strong resistance and DJ17,050 old very strong resistance and finally DJ16,933.43 September 2015 peak. S&P supports are SP2,020 September peak and November 2015 low.
If negative trend line is broken up, the trend in the long term will shift to a bullish vue. I think the market needs a consolidation period.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The two rates hick for 2016 offered by FED brought calm to the markets, personally I would prefer only one. This FED decision could incentive the currency war because a stronger U.S. Dollar will affect the exports. Asia countries need weak currencies to maintain their exports and their economic activities. European Union needs a Euro weaker to activate its economy looking for better exports.
This is one point to consider, the other one is if the stock market is overvalued, if that the stock prices should decrease. Corporate earnings are failing from three quarters ago. But if the market considers an increase in the consumers' potential based on employment and good wages it is the time to buy.
Dear traders and investors, the Brussels's attacks are awful and attempt against the freedom. What important is that the markets in U.S.A. resisted yesterday, European took loses. This week the markets are going to be drive by geopolitical effects due the treacherous terrorist attack in Brussels and Easter.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         

Dow Jones over 200 Days Moving Average

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time hgh
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,978      2015 November peak
                           17,810
                           17,579      Inflection point
                         
DJ Support:     17,183      200 Days moving average
                          17,125      Old resistance
                          17,050      Strong old resistance
                          16,933.43 2015 September peak
                          16,800
                          16,667      Very strong inflection point
                          16,766     January low
                          16,468
                          16,200      Light
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,450      Strong
                          15,370.33 Vey strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA managed to climb and pass the level between DJ16,933.43 and DJ17,125 and in addition 200 days moving average DJ17,179. The S&P is just below the strong resistant at SP2,020 and 200 days moving average at SP2,023. Let's say that the DJIA backdrop is more solid than in S&P.
DJIA next target is DJ17,600 (W double bottom target) very near to the inflection point DJ 17,579. For that S&P has to break out resistances at SP2,020 and 2,023, support is at SP1,993 December low. The DJIA strong support now is DJ16,933.43 September 2015 peak.
The long term trend is still bearish and the midterm is bullish-leaning.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
This week we will have important economic data from U.S.A. and global like from China besides the FOMC meeting with its release on Wednesday. It seems that this year volatility will drive the financial markets, U.S.A. growth will be less than 3 % and lower earnings outlook. This last one is not disappointed because corporate earnings are coming down during the last three trimesters. I think that stocks will posts modest returns on 2,016 but higher than bonds or cash, and the risk of recession is very low.
Almost 90% of the S&P corporations have given their quarterly results and for the next we have to wait for the second trimester.
Retail sales were weak but as unemployment is strong, the market expects a consumer revitalization. This is the bull case.
Dear traders and investors, I think that this and next week the trade will be driven by the economic news not by technical analysis. If economic data will be positive, market will go up and bearish participants will close short positions in the short term but if they disappoint, supports will be tested. In the short term the market is in a bullish swing. It seems to me that DJ17,600 target is achievable.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises