DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 Historical high
DJ Support : 15.658 August peak
15.500 Minor
15.375 Strong
14.760 Strong
14.400 Very Strong
Technical Analysis :
The DJ index has risen and broken up the first resistance at 15.658 equivalent to August peak, target indicated on October 22nd.
The S&P got another all-time high at 1.772.
In general terms, the market technicals are positive this year and in an uptrend moment. The blue-chip benchmark needs a weekly close over its all-time high, we will see it.
Dow Jones should continue its ascent to its historical high where the field is ready with the bulls and bears for the big battle.
Please pay attention to the 20,50 and 200 day moving averages as support, they are pointing up. The last year daily chart is beautiful and it is the map to manage well in the battle.
Fundamentals :
This Wednesday finishes the two-days Federal Reserve (FED) meeting. Markets expect that the FED will continue with the monhtly quantitative easing (QE) at 85 billion asset-purchase. The FED taper should start out on the spring of the next year. Surely, it depens on the new jobs and the unemployment rate evolution. The FED has enough room and flexibility to act on this matter.
The last economic news have been well but not enough strong. The earnings season has been pretty good. Until this momnet the 68% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported positive earnings. The revenue side is weak as the two prior trimesters of 2013.
This market requires a correction. The stock prices are in the actual levels due the liquidity coming from QE and the reorganization and rationalization of the corporations. They have a lot of cash and are very efficient. When? the answer is not easy.
I think with good earnings and the liquidity injection from the monthly QE, the S&P is ready to attack 1.800 level and the Dow Jones index to give the battle in its all-time high. Big fight between bulls and bears.
Make decisions objectively and coldly, stay firm on your plan. At this point we can get surprises easily.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 29 de octubre de 2013
jueves, 24 de octubre de 2013
Dow Jones is lagging
Technical analysis:
The S&P and Nasdaq have broken up their resistances. S&P keeps in its historical new highs after have passed the previous. Nasdaq did almost the same and is in its thirteen years new highs. The DJ index is the only one which is lagging.
Fundamentals:
We are still getting positive news from the economy as the sale of building materials, with some corporations such as Ford.
I expect the Dow Jones to follow S&P and Nasdaq to the upside. I don't think the blue-chip benchmark is going to drag to the downside the other two indexes.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
The S&P and Nasdaq have broken up their resistances. S&P keeps in its historical new highs after have passed the previous. Nasdaq did almost the same and is in its thirteen years new highs. The DJ index is the only one which is lagging.
We are still getting positive news from the economy as the sale of building materials, with some corporations such as Ford.
I expect the Dow Jones to follow S&P and Nasdaq to the upside. I don't think the blue-chip benchmark is going to drag to the downside the other two indexes.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 22 de octubre de 2013
Bullish Mode
Bullish Mode
DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 All time high
15.658 August peak
DJ Support : 15.413 Last week top
15.150
14.719 - 14.760 Strong
14.400 Very strong
Technical Analysis :
The S&P is in its all time high and NASDAQ in its thirteen years high. Both are doing very well in their bullish trend. Despite the Dow Jones index is lagging, it has broken up DJ15.413 last week top and is targeting DJ15.658 August peak.
Normally the S&P or NASDAQ initiates the movement. The three indexes are pointing up right now but the blue-chip benchmark needs a weekly close over DJ15.709.58
The DJ is over the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages, those means good support for the index.
Fundamentals :
The 148.000 September non-farm payroll employment and 7.2% unemployment rate news are positive but not enough as the U.S.A. economy needs them. A strong american economy in growth asks for at least 250.000 monthly new jobs.
We are in the earnings seasons, I expect good corporative results. We can not forget that October is the month of the stock market crashes, I don't say that for superticion but for psychology.
The american economy is going to pay for the consequences of the October goverment shutdown and the debt-ceiling. The estimation is about 20 billion for the last 2013 trimester.
My position in this moment is that we are going to see the S&P at 1.800 before the end of the year. We have in front of us the Thanksgiving and Christmas rally. I am not a fortune teller, I try to get all the information I need, I study and analyze it and finally I take rational conclusions.
Dear traders and investors, you are not alone I am with you in this fascinating activity, sometimes we are winners and sometimes we lose but we always fight to be better and to win in these markets.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 All time high
15.658 August peak
DJ Support : 15.413 Last week top
15.150
14.719 - 14.760 Strong
14.400 Very strong
Technical Analysis :
The S&P is in its all time high and NASDAQ in its thirteen years high. Both are doing very well in their bullish trend. Despite the Dow Jones index is lagging, it has broken up DJ15.413 last week top and is targeting DJ15.658 August peak.
Normally the S&P or NASDAQ initiates the movement. The three indexes are pointing up right now but the blue-chip benchmark needs a weekly close over DJ15.709.58
The DJ is over the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages, those means good support for the index.
Fundamentals :
The 148.000 September non-farm payroll employment and 7.2% unemployment rate news are positive but not enough as the U.S.A. economy needs them. A strong american economy in growth asks for at least 250.000 monthly new jobs.
We are in the earnings seasons, I expect good corporative results. We can not forget that October is the month of the stock market crashes, I don't say that for superticion but for psychology.
The american economy is going to pay for the consequences of the October goverment shutdown and the debt-ceiling. The estimation is about 20 billion for the last 2013 trimester.
My position in this moment is that we are going to see the S&P at 1.800 before the end of the year. We have in front of us the Thanksgiving and Christmas rally. I am not a fortune teller, I try to get all the information I need, I study and analyze it and finally I take rational conclusions.
Dear traders and investors, you are not alone I am with you in this fascinating activity, sometimes we are winners and sometimes we lose but we always fight to be better and to win in these markets.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
jueves, 17 de octubre de 2013
Bull market?
Please click on the chart to enlarge it
Technical analysis:
As you can see in the chart the DJ index is in a bull trend from March 2009. You have to pay attention that in the last six months the blue-chip benchmark is toppish in a range DJ14.400 - 15.709.58. This index needs a weekly close over DJ15.709.58 to continue with the positive trend.
Fundamentals :
The politicians's incompetence weight in the market. We are going possibly to be in the same situation in January and February as it was in the last fifteen days.
Today's problem is distrust. We are in earnings season which should be positive. But if the market have lost confidence and the DJ index does not overcome DJ15.709.58, the bull market could be finish or at least in problems waiting for a definitive solucion about the national budget and indebtedness at the beginning of the next year.
The S&P operates well in new historical high, the DJ index is lagging.
Let the market speak!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
Please click on the chart to enlarge it
Technical analysis:
As you can see in the chart the DJ index is in a bull trend from March 2009. You have to pay attention that in the last six months the blue-chip benchmark is toppish in a range DJ14.400 - 15.709.58. This index needs a weekly close over DJ15.709.58 to continue with the positive trend.
Fundamentals :
The politicians's incompetence weight in the market. We are going possibly to be in the same situation in January and February as it was in the last fifteen days.
Today's problem is distrust. We are in earnings season which should be positive. But if the market have lost confidence and the DJ index does not overcome DJ15.709.58, the bull market could be finish or at least in problems waiting for a definitive solucion about the national budget and indebtedness at the beginning of the next year.
The S&P operates well in new historical high, the DJ index is lagging.
Let the market speak!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 15 de octubre de 2013
Two days for the debt-ceiling deadline
DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 Historical high
15.555 Minor
15.433 Important
15.308 Strong
15.172 50-Day MA(moving average)
DJ Support : 15.050
14.945 Minor
14.719 Strong, October low
14.550 Minor
14.400 Very strong
Technical Analysis :
Actually I am impressed how the two supports worked very well.This is neither coincidence nor fortune teller,it is technical analysis:
- DJ14.760 August low
- DJ14.770 200-Day Moving Average
In technical analysis the 200-Day moving average determines the long term trend. The DJ retested that support succesfully so the uptrend continues.
The DJ rebound from those levels is positive and therefore we can consider the three positive days (October 10,11 and 14) , higher highs erase August low violation at DJ14.719 on Wednesday October 9th.
The positive trend and the positive channel from March 2009 in the daily chart have not been broken.
We conclude the DJ index is still in a positive trend.
Fundamentals :
Not to much to say. The goverment shutdown and specially the debt-ceiling deadline on October 17th. are going to drive the market. The first important payment is for October 31st. and the second one is for November 1st. The Treasury is expecting to collect circa 100 billion from October 17th. until October 31st.which means that the default, if any, could be done after November second week.
Dear traders and investors this is it for the next two days, stay cool and cold, you are professionals. The moment of truth is very close.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 Historical high
15.555 Minor
15.433 Important
15.308 Strong
15.172 50-Day MA(moving average)
DJ Support : 15.050
14.945 Minor
14.719 Strong, October low
14.550 Minor
14.400 Very strong
Technical Analysis :
Actually I am impressed how the two supports worked very well.This is neither coincidence nor fortune teller,it is technical analysis:
- DJ14.760 August low
- DJ14.770 200-Day Moving Average
In technical analysis the 200-Day moving average determines the long term trend. The DJ retested that support succesfully so the uptrend continues.
The DJ rebound from those levels is positive and therefore we can consider the three positive days (October 10,11 and 14) , higher highs erase August low violation at DJ14.719 on Wednesday October 9th.
The positive trend and the positive channel from March 2009 in the daily chart have not been broken.
We conclude the DJ index is still in a positive trend.
Fundamentals :
Not to much to say. The goverment shutdown and specially the debt-ceiling deadline on October 17th. are going to drive the market. The first important payment is for October 31st. and the second one is for November 1st. The Treasury is expecting to collect circa 100 billion from October 17th. until October 31st.which means that the default, if any, could be done after November second week.
Dear traders and investors this is it for the next two days, stay cool and cold, you are professionals. The moment of truth is very close.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 9 de octubre de 2013
martes, 8 de octubre de 2013
Waiting for the sun?
DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 Historical high
15.555 Minor
15.433 Important
15.270 Strong fight
15.090 Minor
14.860 Minor
DJ Support : 14.760 Strong daily chart, and 200MA
14.550 Minor
14.400 Very Strong
Technical Analysis :
The DJ index is pointing down during the last 14 days. During this period we are confronting lower highs and lower lows, negative! The positive trend line from November 2012 is percolated at 15.000 aprox. We can trace a negative trend line from the historical high to today's closing DJ 14.777 . Coincidence with the strong support at 14.760? not for sure.
On the daily chart from the March 2009 lows the DJ is still over the positive trend line and in the positive channel.
Pay attention to the possible triple top or head and shoulder in the six months daily chart. This pattern would be very negative to the blue-chip benchmark index. In the same chart there is a possible range DJ 14.400 to 15.709. The ranges explode to the up or down side with strong mouvements.
Fundamentals :
The market is coming down despite the positive economic news due the goverment shutdown and debt ceiling weight.
What to say? Honestly we should expect a balance fix with a national compromise about the future debt ceiling and budget with the Obama's care Law implementation because it is an approuved Law. If not, all the world together is going to pay for this american crazyness.
I actually have to say that I am still optimistic because the rationalization and restructuring of the american corporations as I explained in the prior blog update. Maybe, it is the time for a healthy great correction in the market to open up the stocks's prices. This is why I said "cash is king" and that the main risk was the debt ceiling at the end of August and in September. We are possibly facing the formation of a wave due the politicians's incompetence.
DO NOT PANIC, we have to put our emotions away and navigate through these waters with objectivity, coolness and discipline. It is not the end of the world, it is only a life's chapter.
I will upload a chart tomorrow to assist you in the navigation.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 Historical high
15.555 Minor
15.433 Important
15.270 Strong fight
15.090 Minor
14.860 Minor
DJ Support : 14.760 Strong daily chart, and 200MA
14.550 Minor
14.400 Very Strong
Technical Analysis :
The DJ index is pointing down during the last 14 days. During this period we are confronting lower highs and lower lows, negative! The positive trend line from November 2012 is percolated at 15.000 aprox. We can trace a negative trend line from the historical high to today's closing DJ 14.777 . Coincidence with the strong support at 14.760? not for sure.
On the daily chart from the March 2009 lows the DJ is still over the positive trend line and in the positive channel.
Pay attention to the possible triple top or head and shoulder in the six months daily chart. This pattern would be very negative to the blue-chip benchmark index. In the same chart there is a possible range DJ 14.400 to 15.709. The ranges explode to the up or down side with strong mouvements.
Fundamentals :
The market is coming down despite the positive economic news due the goverment shutdown and debt ceiling weight.
What to say? Honestly we should expect a balance fix with a national compromise about the future debt ceiling and budget with the Obama's care Law implementation because it is an approuved Law. If not, all the world together is going to pay for this american crazyness.
I actually have to say that I am still optimistic because the rationalization and restructuring of the american corporations as I explained in the prior blog update. Maybe, it is the time for a healthy great correction in the market to open up the stocks's prices. This is why I said "cash is king" and that the main risk was the debt ceiling at the end of August and in September. We are possibly facing the formation of a wave due the politicians's incompetence.
DO NOT PANIC, we have to put our emotions away and navigate through these waters with objectivity, coolness and discipline. It is not the end of the world, it is only a life's chapter.
I will upload a chart tomorrow to assist you in the navigation.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 2 de octubre de 2013
Is the U.S.A. economy in a stellar moment of the humanity?
DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 Historical high
15.555
15.433 Important
15.270 Strong fight
15.210 Minor
DJ Support : 15.085
14.760 Strong
14.400 Very strong
Dear traders and investors, I would like to appologize for this small delay, I was looking at the goverment shutdown and I had the illusion about a compromise in the first 24 hours.
Technical Analysis :
The DJ technicals are bending due the U.S. congressional inaction but the positive trend line and channel from March 2009, the positive trend line from November 2012 prevail and The DJ has not lost the uptrend. We have to pay attention to the possible triple top formation in the 6 months daily chart which implies negativity and the possible range DJ 14.400 to 15.709.58 is important too.
Fundamentals :
The political enviroment is overridding the unexpected economic news as I mentioned last week.
The earnings season is comming but the market focus is in the Congress impasse.
The U.S. economy loses 0.2 percentage points on four-quarter GDP if the shutdown lasts a week, 0.4 points if it lasts 2 weeks and so on.
The debt- limit is the main risk and the Treasury expects to exaust its borrowing capacity for October 17th. That means the shutdown could last 2 weeks and it is what I think. The test for the Treasury is for October 31st. when it has to pay 6 billion dollars in bond coupons.
We have to stay calm, put our emotions away. We are living a stellar moment in U.S.A., the economy is recovering, weak but recovering, this impasse could stop it, a balanced solution could boost with positivism in the american spirit and we know what America is capable.
It is time that U.S.A. take control on its debt for the sake of the country.
I am committed to write the blog every Tuesday and make an update at least during the week. I will upload charts to the blog.
Dear traders and investors I want to thank you for hosting this blog and messages of encouragement have been sent to me with feeling. All the traders form a single family, we are to help us and support us.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 Historical high
15.555
15.433 Important
15.270 Strong fight
15.210 Minor
DJ Support : 15.085
14.760 Strong
14.400 Very strong
Dear traders and investors, I would like to appologize for this small delay, I was looking at the goverment shutdown and I had the illusion about a compromise in the first 24 hours.
Technical Analysis :
The DJ technicals are bending due the U.S. congressional inaction but the positive trend line and channel from March 2009, the positive trend line from November 2012 prevail and The DJ has not lost the uptrend. We have to pay attention to the possible triple top formation in the 6 months daily chart which implies negativity and the possible range DJ 14.400 to 15.709.58 is important too.
Fundamentals :
The political enviroment is overridding the unexpected economic news as I mentioned last week.
The earnings season is comming but the market focus is in the Congress impasse.
The U.S. economy loses 0.2 percentage points on four-quarter GDP if the shutdown lasts a week, 0.4 points if it lasts 2 weeks and so on.
The debt- limit is the main risk and the Treasury expects to exaust its borrowing capacity for October 17th. That means the shutdown could last 2 weeks and it is what I think. The test for the Treasury is for October 31st. when it has to pay 6 billion dollars in bond coupons.
We have to stay calm, put our emotions away. We are living a stellar moment in U.S.A., the economy is recovering, weak but recovering, this impasse could stop it, a balanced solution could boost with positivism in the american spirit and we know what America is capable.
It is time that U.S.A. take control on its debt for the sake of the country.
I am committed to write the blog every Tuesday and make an update at least during the week. I will upload charts to the blog.
Dear traders and investors I want to thank you for hosting this blog and messages of encouragement have been sent to me with feeling. All the traders form a single family, we are to help us and support us.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
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