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miércoles, 2 de octubre de 2013

Is the U.S.A. economy in a stellar moment of the humanity?

DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 Historical high
                        15.555
                        15.433       Important
                        15.270       Strong fight
                        15.210       Minor

DJ Support :     15.085
                        14.760      Strong
                        14.400      Very strong

Dear traders and investors, I would like to appologize for this small delay, I was looking at the goverment shutdown and I had the illusion about a compromise in the first 24 hours.

Technical Analysis :
The DJ technicals are bending due the U.S. congressional inaction but the positive trend line and channel from March 2009, the positive trend line from November 2012 prevail and The DJ has not lost the uptrend. We have to pay attention  to the possible triple top formation in the 6 months daily chart which implies negativity and the possible range DJ 14.400 to 15.709.58 is important too.

Fundamentals :
The political enviroment is overridding the unexpected economic news as I mentioned last week.
The earnings season is comming but the market focus is in the Congress impasse.
The U.S. economy loses 0.2 percentage points on four-quarter GDP if the shutdown lasts a week, 0.4 points if it lasts 2 weeks and so on.
The debt- limit is the main risk and the Treasury expects to exaust its borrowing capacity for October 17th. That means the shutdown could last 2 weeks and it is what I think. The test for the Treasury is for October 31st. when it has to pay 6 billion dollars in bond coupons.

We have to stay calm, put our emotions away. We are living a stellar moment in U.S.A., the economy is recovering, weak but recovering, this impasse could stop it, a balanced solution could boost with positivism in the american spirit and we know what America is capable.
It is time that U.S.A. take control on its debt for the sake of the country.

I am committed to write the blog every Tuesday and make an update at least during the week. I will upload charts to the blog.

Dear traders and investors I want to thank you for hosting this blog and messages of encouragement have been sent to me with feeling. All the traders form a single family, we are to help us and support us.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises


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