Dow Jones Industrial Average new record high

DJ Resistance : 16.120    New record high

DJ Support      :  16.030
                            15.900.82 Strong Low November 22nd.
                            15.797
                            15.700      Strong

Technical Analysis:
The blue-chip benchmark got a new record high today. The DJ index lost steam at the close of the session but ended in positive.
The S&P also touched a new record high and the NASDAQ finally overcame 4.000 points, incredible.
Well, we got the small Thanksgiving rally.
We have to pay attention to the broke up DJ 15.721 resistance with "V Reversal" because the technical target should be DJ16.600 aproximately.
The Dow Jones Index is right now over a positive trend line coming from this "V reversal" (blue line in the chart enclosed).
Please click on the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals :
Not too much to comment before Thanksgiving.
We got encouraging economic news today as the U.S. Home Prices and U.S. Building Permits. The U.S. Consumer Confidence unexpectedly continues to deteriorate in November. The Conference Board Consumer Index dipped to 72 from upwardly revised 72.6 in October. As I have explained last week the consumer sentiment worries me.

Dear traders and investors, I wish you an excellent time with your families. Le foyer is for me very important, it is the base of the family and I will dedicate these days to them.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving and a Happy Holidays!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

S&P got 1.803 new all-time high

DJ Resistance : 16.030   New all-time high
                            16.000   Psychological

DJ Support      :  15.797   Prior all-time high
                            15.721   October peak
                            15.540   Important
                            14.760   Strong (range support)
                            14.400   Very strong

Technical Analysis :
The S&P got its all-time high at 1.800 as it was our target.
The Dow Jones index and the S&P are in their unknown territory, therefore it is not easy to define the resistances.
According the technical analysis the DJ is in a positive trend in the short term while stays above DJ15.797. Medium and long term also are in a constructive way. You can watch it in the daily chart.
The six months range was broken up at the resistance at DJ15.797, and the "V" reversal did it plainly at the same level. This should be a very good support and the "V" reversal still has a long way to the upside according to the technical analysis.
What worries me is the volume.  It is true that at the break up volume increased but not much enough for historical new highs. We have to pay attention on this.
Thanksgiving is coming, we will see  if market rallies.
The next charts are going to show you the path to navigate in these markets.

Please, click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals :

Low interest rates, liquidity and better-than-expected earnings explain why the stock prices are so high therefore the Dow Jones Industrial Averages is in new historical highs.

The U.S. economy is increasing slowly and Europe is leaving its downfall. The U.S. economy needs to grow faster  in a sustainable way and without  the consumption increase there is no recovery.  What worries is the consumer confidence. If saving rather than spending due that they fear about losing their jobs, the demand of goods is going to be weak , then the corporations are going to stop hiring because their expectations about sales. The investments will slow since they do not expect better sales and so on is the chain. Finally they are going to fire workers, the salaries will decrease which means no inflation, the possiblities for the deflacion will be latent  and continuing with this scheme we will be like Japan in the 1990s.

Do not be scared, I tried only to explain what happen when deflation comes.  U.S.A. is far from that scenario and Europe showed healthy signs of a possible recovery. The crisis comes from 2008 and we are finishing 2013, it has lasted too long. It is the time to correct the course definitely that concerns us all. I think that the market needs a healthy correction but over DJ15.797 it is strong with a clear upside.

I am still optimistic with the stock market because there are positive fundamentals in front of us besides the technicals. But we can not neglect this time.

After we have gotten our target S&P1.800 do we deserve a rest? naturally not. Sometimes we win, the most, and in others we lose but we are always in the markets trying to do our best. Passion is the great difference.

Dear traders and investors, Thanksgiving is coming in ten days, it is an important holiday. For us, traders and investors, generally it comes with a small rally. Let's see it! 

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

S&P failed new highs

DJ Resistance : 15.797 All time high

DJ Support      : 15.721 October peak
                           15.580 Minor
                           15.540 Strong (hourly chart)
                           15.410
                           14.760 Strong (daily chart)
                           14.400 Very strong (1 year daily chart)

Technical Analysis :
Finally DJ got new all-time highs and a weekly close over 15.721 (October peak). The blue-chip benchmark penetrated the upperside of the range ( 14.400 - 15.721) being the leader this time. The DJ index is still over 20,50 and 200 days moving averages and over the positive trend line and in the positive channel from the lows of March 2009 (watch last week chart). All of these are bullish.
The S&P failed trying to get new highs (over October peak 1.775). Right now its resistances are S&P 1.771.95 (all-time closing high) and 1.775.22 (all-time high). Maybe we are facing the S&P exhaustion if we consider the overbought indicators and we could get a healthy correction in November. I say that because the Nasdaq is lagging now. The S&P is ready for new highs but when?.
The DJ index and the S&P promise new highs in the short term, and its median and long term inclination point for higher.
Please click to enlarge the chart

Fundamentals :
The fundamentals are more difficult than the technicals specially in these times.
The U.S.A. economy is growing slow, but growing. We still have in front of us the budget approuval (December) and the debt ceiling (February) among other incertainties like the consumer sentiment, unemployment, tapering and so on. The earnings season is positive, the corporations are healthy and have cash. The  world needs a sustainable growths, that is the real problem.
I reed on Monday an article in the WSJ by Alexandra Scaggs "Five years after the finantial crisis, individual investors are piling into stocks again amid sings that the U.S. economy is slowly gaining steam. The buyers, many with investment portfolios that were scorched during the market meltdown, are climbing aboard a ride to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average".
As you know when everybody jumps into the stock market it is considered a contrarian indicator.
I would like to suggest to read the next article http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21589439-rich-world-and-especially-euro-zone-risks-harmfully-low-inflation in The Economist about deflation and ultra low inflation.
Live is not easy, it is a fight. I am optimistic by my nature. I have learned that one has to do his work studying and analyzing to develop solid and sustainable positions to face life or markets if so we want to call them.
Janet Yellen, nominee to take over as chair of the Fed, heads to Congress on Thursday for her confirmation hearing.

Dear traders and investors, rationally I consider that the market is in a positive way that we will see higher levels based on fundamentals and technical analysis. We should have two rallies before the end of the year, for Thanksgiving and Christmast. This is my opinion.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones new high?

DJ Resistance :  15.721      All-time high
                             15.680.35 Record closing high

DJ Support      :   15.543
                             15.500     Minor
                             15.375    Strong
                             14.760    Strong
                             14.400    Very strong

Technical Analysis :
As I explained last week the Dow Jones encountered a big fight between bulls and bears in the the levels of its all-time high. It is not a coincidence, it is the defined battle field where sellers and buyers are. The S&P is in unknown territory and the Dow Jones is lagging. The Dow Jones needs a weekly close over DJ15.721 to confirm that it is following the S&P in new territory. For that, the Dow Jones index has to overcome DJ15.658, August peak, DJ15.680.35, record closing high, and 15.721, October peak.
Technically the Dow Jones has this three positive factors ;
- Dow Jones daily chart shows the index over 20,50 and 200 moving average(MA).
- Dow Jones  index has formed a "V shape reversal" in the daily chart of the last two months and the range is very clear DJ14.760 to 15.721.
- The Dow Jones is still over the positive trend and in the positive channel coming from March 2009.

According to the technical analysis also it can be the DJ drag down the S&P if the DJ could not penetrate the resistances. Be aware!
The S&P should drag up the blue-chip benchmark.

Fundamentals :
The U.S.A. economy is growing in a slow mode. The market needs a sustainable growth. The October non-farm payroll and unemployment are coming this Friday.
The other important point for growth is the consumer confidence. Without consomption the economy is going to be weak.
Those are the predominant factors for this week.

The bulls and bears are fighting in these high historical levels of the market. That explains why the Dow Jones could not overcome the resistances but the pullback is shallow, I find it bullish. The bulls are concentrating its forces to attack the resistances again. The bears have a hard work in their lines to stop the bulls. November and December are the high sales season of the year.
Dear traders and investors, are we going to have Thanksgiving and Christmast rally? Fundamentals and technical analysis are pointing for the rallies.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises