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martes, 19 de noviembre de 2013

S&P got 1.803 new all-time high

DJ Resistance : 16.030   New all-time high
                            16.000   Psychological

DJ Support      :  15.797   Prior all-time high
                            15.721   October peak
                            15.540   Important
                            14.760   Strong (range support)
                            14.400   Very strong

Technical Analysis :
The S&P got its all-time high at 1.800 as it was our target.
The Dow Jones index and the S&P are in their unknown territory, therefore it is not easy to define the resistances.
According the technical analysis the DJ is in a positive trend in the short term while stays above DJ15.797. Medium and long term also are in a constructive way. You can watch it in the daily chart.
The six months range was broken up at the resistance at DJ15.797, and the "V" reversal did it plainly at the same level. This should be a very good support and the "V" reversal still has a long way to the upside according to the technical analysis.
What worries me is the volume.  It is true that at the break up volume increased but not much enough for historical new highs. We have to pay attention on this.
Thanksgiving is coming, we will see  if market rallies.
The next charts are going to show you the path to navigate in these markets.

Please, click over the charts to enlarge them.



Fundamentals :
Low interest rates, liquidity and better-than-expected earnings explain why the stock prices are so high therefore the Dow Jones Industrial Averages is in new historical highs.
The U.S. economy is increasing slowly and Europe is leaving its downfall. The U.S. economy needs to grow faster  in a sustainable way and without  the consumption increase there is no recovery.  What worries is the consumer confidence. If saving rather than spending due that they fear about losing their jobs, the demand of goods is going to be weak , then the corporations are going to stop hiring because their expectations about sales. The investments will slow since they do not expect better sales and so on is the chain. Finally they are going to fire workers, the salaries will decrease which means no inflation, the possiblities for the deflacion will be latent  and continuing with this scheme we will be like Japan in the 1990s.
Do not be scared, I tried only to explain what happen when deflation comes.  U.S.A. is far from that scenario and Europe showed healthy signs of a possible recovery. The crisis comes from 2008 and we are finishing 2013, it has lasted too long. It is the time to correct the course definitely that concerns us all. I think that the market needs a healthy correction but over DJ15.797 it is strong with a clear upside.

I am still optimistic with the stock market because there are positive fundamentals in front of us besides the technicals. But we can not neglect this time.

After we have gotten our target S&P1.800 do we deserve a rest? naturally not. Sometimes we win, the most, and in others we lose but we are always in the markets trying to do our best. Passion is the great difference.

Dear traders and investors, Thanksgiving is coming in ten days, it is an important holiday. For us, traders and investors, generally it comes with a small rally. Let's see it! 

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises


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