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miércoles, 3 de septiembre de 2014

Bullish sentiment at the September beginning

DJ Resistance: 17,153.80   All-time record high
                           17,138       All-time record closing high
                           17,100

DJ Support:       17,020
                           16,980      Strong
                           16,743      Strong May peak
                           16,588      Strong 2013 peak
                           16,355      Strong
                           16,015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
NASDAQ Composite is the leader now with S&P. They have breakout their resistances.  S&P got a new record high last week and the NASDAQ composite a new one in the last fourteen years. DJIA is lagging but fighting with its resistance.
The new consolidation bullish range is DJ16,980 - 17,153.80. And as it fights with resistance, the higher probabilities for the bulls. If DJ17,020 and DJ16,980 will support that would mean that those level do not attract sellers but buyers. The bull-bear battle would be on DJ17,153.80 for the DJIA. S&P and NASDAQ Composite have broken through that level equivalent.
September is beginning with a bull trend, it could be longer bull trend. As the market is overbought and August is a hard month, the market has to reconfirm during September the August breakout and bullish trend.
Plerase click over the charts to enlarge them.


Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy is in a recovery mood, economy news support that. For example two Tuesday's good news:  U.S. Manufacturing Index climbed to three year high in August and U.S. Construction Spending jumped 1.8% in July, both more than expected. The market expects low rates for at least in the next 10 months. Europe has recovery but very weak, it needs a lot more steam.
Geopolitical is unstable specially Ukraine with Russia behind. NATO is organizing its position, U.S.A. is the leader but we don't know exactly what are they going to do in front of Russia expansionist move. In the Middle East ISIS is a big problem, does U.S.A will go back to Iraq and this time to Syria?. Finally there is a cease-fire with an agreement between Palestine and Israel for the Gaza Strip, the bill is for U.S.A tax payers and Israel has substracted 400 hectares from Palestine as a compensation for the last complications.

Dear traders and investors, in my opinion we have to pay attention about the reconfirmation of the positive stock market move during August. That would be more important for the markets than the geopolitical situations. However geopolitical plays a lot on the financial markets, we should not neglect these factors.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

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