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miércoles, 25 de octubre de 2017

The Trend is Bull

DJ Resistance:  23,485.25  All-time high

DJ Support:      23,368
                           23,174       Gap
                           23,086
                           23,002       Strong & gap
                           22,890
                           22,810       20 Days moving average
                           22,785
                           22,420       Strong breakout
                           22,405       50 Days moving average
                           22,119       Breakout
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,600       Strong
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,305       200 Days moving average
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
What a month!
Actually the October breakout at the beginning of the month is unstoppable. We have to realize that the period between November and April is the best for the stock market.
20 days moving average is accompanying as first support the October great acceleration after the breakout.
DJIA has gaps to be filled especially at DJ23,002 where should be a strong support. This action will bring solidity to the up move on DJIA. The consolidation range is DJ23,000 to 23,485.25 with a very strong support at the breakout DJ22,420.
The last up move of the three indexes is over extended in the near term and needs to consolidate filling the gaps and touching the supports. This consolidation will strengthen the bull trend for the seasonal coming period which is statistically the best part of the year for the stock market as I explained previously.
In the mid and long term the trend is bullish-leaning barring a violation at DJ22,420.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
This upside of the last days comes from the budget in the U.S. Congress, it is almost sure that it will be approved by the Senate and the House of Represents, and through this activity the tax cut will be approved too with less votes than the normally requirement. This should be ready just before Thanksgiving.
Economic news continue to be positive, constructive and give strenghto the markets like the increases of September Existing Home Sales to 5.390 million from 5.350 million units. Redbook report showed +3.5% on retail sales on a year to year basis, PMI Composite Flash at 55.7 versus last month 54.6. The corporate earnings season is open and statistically during this period the stock market goes higher. The combination of both should send the market to the up side.
We still have to pay attention to geopoliticals, ISIS or DAESCH is losing territorry and power but they can continue with terrorist attacks as the threat to the footballer Leonel Messi, North Korea continues with threats.

Dear traders and investors, we should face a consolidation in the market before Thanksgiving that will bring health for the bull movement. I am still bullish and I suggest to buy on the dips.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

1 comentario:

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