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miércoles, 7 de febrero de 2018

DJIA,S&P: Major supports were violated

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,912       20 Days moving average
                           25,500
                           25,079       50 Days moving average
                           25,000

DJ Supports:    24,876       2017 peak
                           24,715.90  Support of old range
                           24,500
                           24,100
                           23,950
                           23,600
                           23,500       Gap upside
                           23,480       Gap downside
                           23,250       Strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,740       200 Days moving average
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535       July peak

Technical Analysis:
Big damages were made in the down correction from recently highs. The bulls need to repair the charts if they still wants new all-time highs.
DJIA and S&P have broken down important supports like DJ25,904, DJ24,100, 20 and 50 days moving average, and 2017 peak. The last bounce up could stop the correction.
DJIA has done a 10% correction from the all-time high DJ26,616.71. The 10% correction market at DJ23,954.
DJIA and S&P need to form an extended base to look for a new leg that will send the market for a new all-time high.
The indexes are trending to lower levels and repairs are pending before to take the way to new all-time highs.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
The market is going down and up, this is a correction 10% in the DJIA and 9.2 in the S&P. The weakest index is NASDAQ Composite.
The economy is doing very well, the tax cut will generate better corporate profits in the big, mids and small ones.
This panic is about inflation coming from possible higher salaries, we know that interest rates will be raised three times this year and the market fears a runaway inflation.
On February 8th. we have the dateline for the Spending Bill, this is tomorrow. There is no agreement in the Congress until now.
I find this correction very healthy because it will put the stock market prices in their fair value. The correction was needed to forma a solid base before the next leg up looking for the new all-time high. I understand that it is hard to go through the correction phase when you have bought at a higher price or when you how you have lost the price profit in your positions. For me these times are nice opportunities to increase the positions at good prices and you will see more volume coming to the market, they are the investors who lost the last movements to the upside, this is really healthy.

Dear traders and investors, it is difficult to feel great during these days in the stock and bond markets. I ask you to be calm and look for the market opportunities, remember I was calling for a correction or profound consolidation phase before the next leg up. Financial market are very difficult to foresee but in this case we have a solid economy, excellent corporate earnings and stable consumption. All these are rational not a story from a fortune teller. Are we out of the woods? Actually I don't know but we will and i am still positive with the stock market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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