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jueves, 12 de abril de 2018

Bearish Short Term

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,800.35
                           25,400
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,758       50 Days moving average
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,319       20 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,100
                           23,514       200 Days moving average
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
DJIA trend in the midterm is bearish. From April low the market has bounced up as a limited correction in these moments. We have to pay attention if we are going to get a follow through running to the 2017 close and high. Those are the real resistances. S&P and NASDAQ Composite reached them.
DJIA 200 days moving average, a long term indicator, is acting as a fabulous support and in the case of DJIA have never been violated from June 2016. Same index in S&P and Nasdaq Composite was violated but the closings are over it.
DJ24,719 (2017 close), DJ24,876 (2017 high) are the important resistances. Also DJ24,758 (50 days moving average) which is pointing down is a strong resistance.
DJIA to take a big step in repairing the charts has to sleep over the negative trend line.
February and March have damaged the chart and the attempts to the up side and get a correction have failed that is why the trend in the medium term is bearish and in the long run is bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The fear of a trade war triggers the sales off, Syria situation is acting against the financial markets due the uncertainties. I do not expect a trade war but global geopolitics and especially President Trump initiatives brings instabilities to the markets. I expect the volatility will continue.
The economy is in shape, the inflation is a little bit higher but controlled by the FED. The interest rates are increasing according to the FED´s plan and corporate earnings season is starting. I expect positive corporation numbers.

Dear traders and investors, I don´t want to write at length about why I am positive with the growth in the economy, corporate earnings, unemployment and consumption. The important is to determine the bottom of this correction, I still expect DJ23,250 as the strong support. The good days are coming and we will test the all-time high. Volatility will continue the next days and maybe weeks. Buy the dips!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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