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jueves, 24 de mayo de 2018

Boring but bullish

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,800.35
                           25,400
                           25,000
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close

DJ Support:      24,619
                           24,500       20 Days moving average
                           24,440       50 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,100
                           23,978       200 Days moving average
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002      Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is attacking DJ25,000 resistance. The mood and the technical are bullish. It is very important for the bulls to breakout DJ25,000 and it should be over DJ24,719 (2017 close) and DJ24,876 (2017 high).
The three indexes resilience and stability support the bullish bias.
It seems the DJ23,250 that we have outlined from March 2018 acts as very strong support for DJIA.
The breakout of DJ25,000 would confirm the double bottom defined by March and May lows approximately DJ23,500.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Better than expected economic reports and records earnings project the stocks to higher prices. We are facing historic times for the economy and the markets. I am not showing the last economic reports but you can watch PMI Composite Flash report as an example. The problem comes from geopolitical issues, it brings uncertainty the principal enemy for the financial markets. We saw Israel using in its war the F-35 hunters, it is incredible, Iran agreement, North Korea meeting with President trump was cancelled, TLC in problems without definitions, the European Union no longer trust their ally from always U.S.A. and so on.
FED minutes from May 4th. calmed the markets about inflation and practically has ratified an interest increase for June.
In January and February we were very clear that the tax cut was bullish for the corporations and individuals, the corporate earnings were doing well and consumption was solid. All these is excellent for the economy and better times were coming. I also added that the uncertainty will be with us during the next months and the important was to define the bottom of the correction. It seems that we did well with DJ23,250 support.

Dear traders and investors, I don't want to take your time with a long explanation in detail about what I expect in the economy field for 2018 and 2019, my position is bullish until I find reasons and ground to change my expectations about the economy and the financial markets.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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