DJ Short Term Range: 17,705 - 17,817.90
DJ Support: 17,525 Strong
17,280 Strong September peak
Dear traders and investors, we got our Thanksgiving rally, we are going to get important economic news from next week as the unemployment.
I actually wish you a very nice Thanksgiving holiday, this is the time for families to be gathered together enjoying the peace and love around the heat and light of the home. Family is very important.
DJIA next target is DJ18,000 and S&P 2,100. U.S.markets are in a clear bullish trend despite an expected correction at some point.
See you next week.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 25 de noviembre de 2014
miércoles, 19 de noviembre de 2014
S&P exceeeded 2050 points.
DJ Resistance: 17,735.71 Record all-time high
17,705 Prior all-time record high
DJ Support: 17,525 - 17,500
17,411 Strong
17,278 September's peak
16,990
16,588 Strong 2013's peak
16,320 Strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
S&P did new all-time record high at SP2056. I expected SP2050 for Thanksgiving and we got it one week in advance with this strong bull market.
DJIA and S&P are riding in unknown territories. The new DJIA short term range is DJ17,500 - 17,735.71.
The steep last four Weeks's spike is extremely bullish for medium and long term. Every week DJIA closed higher than previous. This is a strong bullish sign because it means that buyers are coming and bears are losing the fight with them.
The three indexes are in bullish mood, we should watch others like S&P400 or Russell 2000 because they can act as ballast if they don't have the same movement.
Next target for DJIA should be DJ18,000 and SP2,100. Technical analysis indicates a clearly bullish direction supported by a strong positive momentum.
Click over the charts to enlarge them
Fundamentals:
These markets are driven up by the last U.S.A. economic news like the consumer is in shape, Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales reported better than expected, U.S.A. recovery is in the way, European economy is out of recession officially with 0.8% GDP growth, Japan is in recession but Abe is calling for election and delaying sales tax increase for 18 months, a good earnings season and the catalyzer U.S.A. election.
There is no more important economic news until December and we will have a nice Thanksgiving next week.
Dear traders and investors, do not forget that we got almost 9% correction in October generated by the geopolitical backdrop, European recesion, etc. The formidable bounce up of the stock market is showing us what the market is anticipating for the next 6 to 9 months. We have to analyze the coming inflation and how it is going to affect the market. We are going to work on it. For the moment market has to consolidate over S&P 2050, if that, next target and we will see is SP2,100 before the year end otherwise we will get a moderated correction looking for bull-bear battlefield to define market's direction in the short term.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,705 Prior all-time record high
DJ Support: 17,525 - 17,500
17,411 Strong
17,278 September's peak
16,990
16,588 Strong 2013's peak
16,320 Strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
S&P did new all-time record high at SP2056. I expected SP2050 for Thanksgiving and we got it one week in advance with this strong bull market.
DJIA and S&P are riding in unknown territories. The new DJIA short term range is DJ17,500 - 17,735.71.
The steep last four Weeks's spike is extremely bullish for medium and long term. Every week DJIA closed higher than previous. This is a strong bullish sign because it means that buyers are coming and bears are losing the fight with them.
The three indexes are in bullish mood, we should watch others like S&P400 or Russell 2000 because they can act as ballast if they don't have the same movement.
Next target for DJIA should be DJ18,000 and SP2,100. Technical analysis indicates a clearly bullish direction supported by a strong positive momentum.
Click over the charts to enlarge them
Fundamentals:
These markets are driven up by the last U.S.A. economic news like the consumer is in shape, Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales reported better than expected, U.S.A. recovery is in the way, European economy is out of recession officially with 0.8% GDP growth, Japan is in recession but Abe is calling for election and delaying sales tax increase for 18 months, a good earnings season and the catalyzer U.S.A. election.
There is no more important economic news until December and we will have a nice Thanksgiving next week.
Dear traders and investors, do not forget that we got almost 9% correction in October generated by the geopolitical backdrop, European recesion, etc. The formidable bounce up of the stock market is showing us what the market is anticipating for the next 6 to 9 months. We have to analyze the coming inflation and how it is going to affect the market. We are going to work on it. For the moment market has to consolidate over S&P 2050, if that, next target and we will see is SP2,100 before the year end otherwise we will get a moderated correction looking for bull-bear battlefield to define market's direction in the short term.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 12 de noviembre de 2014
Dow Jones new all-time record high
DJ Resistance: 17,638 New all-time record high
DJ Support: 17,411 Prior all-time record high
17,278 Light last 8 days low
16,990 Strong
16,588 Strong 2013's peak
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) broke up its all-time record high and its scenery is bullish.
First support at DJ17,411 and next at DJ17,278. Those levels are important to target new historical highs.
DJIA and S&P have done new all-time record high and NASDAQ COMPOSITE did its fourteen years high. The three indexes are supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The market didn't rest and the election acted as an upward catalyzer.
The trend in the medium and short term is solidly to the upside.
If the "V Reversal" is confirmed this time, the target would be DJ18,600.
The S&P way is clearly to the SP2050 before the year's end and DJIA should try DJ18,000. The NASDAQ Composite looks for its all-time high.
Technical analysis indicates enough space to continue to the upside.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
I have explained about the U.S. recovery and the weakness in the rest of the world, the positive expectations for the European Central Bank possible intervention to stimulate the economy, and so on.
We are going to see a correction, markets needs 10% at least to get honest stock prices in the new market reality, but when?
Not for the moment. I was wrong in my speculation of hectic days (they have been meet and continue), rest (this not accomplished), and Thanksgiving rally.
The stock market is in a fueled momentum to the upside, then let's go with the tide!
S&P 2050 is a target before year's end.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
DJ Support: 17,411 Prior all-time record high
17,278 Light last 8 days low
16,990 Strong
16,588 Strong 2013's peak
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) broke up its all-time record high and its scenery is bullish.
First support at DJ17,411 and next at DJ17,278. Those levels are important to target new historical highs.
DJIA and S&P have done new all-time record high and NASDAQ COMPOSITE did its fourteen years high. The three indexes are supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The market didn't rest and the election acted as an upward catalyzer.
The trend in the medium and short term is solidly to the upside.
If the "V Reversal" is confirmed this time, the target would be DJ18,600.
The S&P way is clearly to the SP2050 before the year's end and DJIA should try DJ18,000. The NASDAQ Composite looks for its all-time high.
Technical analysis indicates enough space to continue to the upside.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
I have explained about the U.S. recovery and the weakness in the rest of the world, the positive expectations for the European Central Bank possible intervention to stimulate the economy, and so on.
We are going to see a correction, markets needs 10% at least to get honest stock prices in the new market reality, but when?
Not for the moment. I was wrong in my speculation of hectic days (they have been meet and continue), rest (this not accomplished), and Thanksgiving rally.
The stock market is in a fueled momentum to the upside, then let's go with the tide!
S&P 2050 is a target before year's end.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 4 de noviembre de 2014
New record highs technical and clearly bullish
DJ Resistance: 17,411 All-time record high
DJ Support: 17,330
17,279.94 Prior all-time record close
17,152 July's peak
16,990 Strong
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850
Technical Analysis:
DJIA has bounced up getting new all-time record high. This last up move has approximately 1,550 points from its low and it took three weeks.
It seems that the market needs to rest but the result of the elections could catalyze it.
The short term small range is DJ17,330 - 17,411 and the stabilization area is DJ16,990 - 17,411. DJIA has to fight and overcome its resistance, if it fails we are going to face a selloff, But DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are technically bullish. The DJ16,990 support violation should be considered as a possibility for a correction.
The long term uptrend is still in place. Personally I expect to get S&P2050 this year.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
The result of the elections and this week important economic news as unemployment on Friday are going to play into the market's direction.
As I commented in the last weeks the U.S.A. economy is doing well but EU, China, India, Brazil and some Asian countries like Japan are in a weak mode. This could weigh in the U.S.A activity for example the trade deficit grew last months due the decreasing exports to EU, it was because the feeble European consumption. The strength of Germany relies on exports not in its internal consumption.
Dear traders and investors, the Friday unemployment figures are going to rule the markets. What could we expect? I think some hectic days, then some rest of the markets and Thanksgiving rally. This is my own speculation. At the beginning of 2014 I told you my expectations to see this year S&P1,900 and very possible S&P2000. Those goals are accomplished and there is more room. Nothing is written.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
DJ Support: 17,330
17,279.94 Prior all-time record close
17,152 July's peak
16,990 Strong
16,588 Strong 2013 peak
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850
Technical Analysis:
DJIA has bounced up getting new all-time record high. This last up move has approximately 1,550 points from its low and it took three weeks.
It seems that the market needs to rest but the result of the elections could catalyze it.
The short term small range is DJ17,330 - 17,411 and the stabilization area is DJ16,990 - 17,411. DJIA has to fight and overcome its resistance, if it fails we are going to face a selloff, But DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are technically bullish. The DJ16,990 support violation should be considered as a possibility for a correction.
The long term uptrend is still in place. Personally I expect to get S&P2050 this year.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
The result of the elections and this week important economic news as unemployment on Friday are going to play into the market's direction.
As I commented in the last weeks the U.S.A. economy is doing well but EU, China, India, Brazil and some Asian countries like Japan are in a weak mode. This could weigh in the U.S.A activity for example the trade deficit grew last months due the decreasing exports to EU, it was because the feeble European consumption. The strength of Germany relies on exports not in its internal consumption.
Dear traders and investors, the Friday unemployment figures are going to rule the markets. What could we expect? I think some hectic days, then some rest of the markets and Thanksgiving rally. This is my own speculation. At the beginning of 2014 I told you my expectations to see this year S&P1,900 and very possible S&P2000. Those goals are accomplished and there is more room. Nothing is written.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 29 de octubre de 2014
What a bounce!
DJ Resistance: 17,354.54 All-time record high
17,279.94 All-time record close
17,152 Breakdown point July peak
17,015
DJ Support: 16,850 Light
16,730
16,650 Important
16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200 DMA approx.
16,450
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The bounce up and the permanence of Dow Jones Index Average over DJ16,588 offer a possibly brilliant fourth trimester.
We have to pay attention every moment to DJ16,015 because it means that in this important level buyers where attracted by the market and they battled the sellers.
Please watch on the first chart, hourly, the positive trend line in the last ten days. It comes from the recent low DJ15,850. This line shows a strong support, the trend direction and besides the supports in the short term frame.
The other chart shows the big picture where it is clear that the DJ has to stay over DJ16,588 to think about to achieve new historic high before the end of the year. It is also clear that negative short term resistance (green line) is broken which is positive for the stock market.
DJIA is the weakest between the three indexes. The all three are supported right know for the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages. DJ is again over DJ16,588 the 2013 peak. The market continues to strengthen but if it not penetrate its resistances we could easily get a down reverse.
The three indexes are pointing up and technically they are ready to visit its historical record high. Let's watch how they fight with the resistances.
The bull market from February 2009 is still in place.
Please, click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
As I have mentioned the U.S. economy is in a positive path instead there are some doubts about the economy in the European Union (UE), China, Japan, emerging markets like Brazil, and so on.
Wednesday FOMC meting will be determinant for the markets. FED has to decide if the last trance QE will finish, 15 billion, or it will last for some time more due the last three weeks correction.
Personally I think the end of the QE will sent a strong message to the markets that the economy is in a solid way and FED trust it. It could be the catalyzer to attempt the record high. Other way if the QE lasts, the market is going to interpret that the interest rates will stay low for at least two trimesters more. That is a good signal for the stock market. I think that the interest rates are going to stay in the actual levels until the end of 2015. Why? The labor market is improving but the jobs quality is not the same as it was before 2008. Then, there is not the possibility for wages increase consequently inflation will be controlled among other factors.
Dear traders and investors keep cool today until 2 o'clock.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,279.94 All-time record close
17,152 Breakdown point July peak
17,015
DJ Support: 16,850 Light
16,730
16,650 Important
16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200 DMA approx.
16,450
16,320 Strong
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
The bounce up and the permanence of Dow Jones Index Average over DJ16,588 offer a possibly brilliant fourth trimester.
We have to pay attention every moment to DJ16,015 because it means that in this important level buyers where attracted by the market and they battled the sellers.
Please watch on the first chart, hourly, the positive trend line in the last ten days. It comes from the recent low DJ15,850. This line shows a strong support, the trend direction and besides the supports in the short term frame.
The other chart shows the big picture where it is clear that the DJ has to stay over DJ16,588 to think about to achieve new historic high before the end of the year. It is also clear that negative short term resistance (green line) is broken which is positive for the stock market.
DJIA is the weakest between the three indexes. The all three are supported right know for the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages. DJ is again over DJ16,588 the 2013 peak. The market continues to strengthen but if it not penetrate its resistances we could easily get a down reverse.
The three indexes are pointing up and technically they are ready to visit its historical record high. Let's watch how they fight with the resistances.
The bull market from February 2009 is still in place.
Please, click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
As I have mentioned the U.S. economy is in a positive path instead there are some doubts about the economy in the European Union (UE), China, Japan, emerging markets like Brazil, and so on.
Wednesday FOMC meting will be determinant for the markets. FED has to decide if the last trance QE will finish, 15 billion, or it will last for some time more due the last three weeks correction.
Personally I think the end of the QE will sent a strong message to the markets that the economy is in a solid way and FED trust it. It could be the catalyzer to attempt the record high. Other way if the QE lasts, the market is going to interpret that the interest rates will stay low for at least two trimesters more. That is a good signal for the stock market. I think that the interest rates are going to stay in the actual levels until the end of 2015. Why? The labor market is improving but the jobs quality is not the same as it was before 2008. Then, there is not the possibility for wages increase consequently inflation will be controlled among other factors.
Dear traders and investors keep cool today until 2 o'clock.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 22 de octubre de 2014
Dow jones closed over its breakout
DJ Resistance: 17,354.54 All-time record high
17,279.94 All-time record close
17,152 Breakdown point
17,015
16,900 50 days moving average
16,775 1 Year Positive Trend line, 20DMA
DJ Support: 16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200DMA
16,320 Strong April low
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
Market run down directly until it got its strong support at DJ16, 015 and hence it has made a spectacular bounce up. Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded DJ16, 588, 2013 peak and 200 days moving average, which means that the index is in stabilization area. We have to pay attention if the index stays over that level to continue stabilizing.
Fundamentals:
The U.S. earnings season and the rumor, that the European Central Bank is going to buy private bonds to introduce more liquidity into the market to avoid disinflation, are driven the market to the upside.
Just Monday October 19th, was the 1987 crash anniversary but this time the DJIA went up forming a clear candlestick hammer. It make me happy because I remembered those terrible days in 1987 when investors tried to sell their positions.
The earnings season as catalyzer has supported the market and turned it up. There are a lot of complications in the world economy, U.S.A. is doing well but not the European Union, China, Japan nor emerging markets. Geopolitical is heavy. Then, I think the market is going to be volatile and going to the up and downside.
Dear traders and investors, we are still in October and market participants are very superstitious, we are not navigating in calm waters. Therefore, probably we are going to face extreme movements in the next days. The important is DJIA to stay over DJ16,588 for the stabilization and to have chances for the Thanksgiving Rally.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,279.94 All-time record close
17,152 Breakdown point
17,015
16,900 50 days moving average
16,775 1 Year Positive Trend line, 20DMA
DJ Support: 16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200DMA
16,320 Strong April low
16,015 Very strong
15,850 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
Market run down directly until it got its strong support at DJ16, 015 and hence it has made a spectacular bounce up. Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded DJ16, 588, 2013 peak and 200 days moving average, which means that the index is in stabilization area. We have to pay attention if the index stays over that level to continue stabilizing.
The market is almost repeating the September-October 2013
pattern. You can see it in the 2 years daily chart.
DJIA penetrated DJ16, 015 support twice but immediately
bounced up and closed the trading day over that level. The closing of the day
is very important to analyse the bounce up and to check the damage in the
charts. That means that the DJIA actually attracted buyers in the indicated
support.
The trend in the short term is still to the downside and in
the long run the bull market is still in play.
Please click over te chart to enlarge itFundamentals:
The U.S. earnings season and the rumor, that the European Central Bank is going to buy private bonds to introduce more liquidity into the market to avoid disinflation, are driven the market to the upside.
Just Monday October 19th, was the 1987 crash anniversary but this time the DJIA went up forming a clear candlestick hammer. It make me happy because I remembered those terrible days in 1987 when investors tried to sell their positions.
The earnings season as catalyzer has supported the market and turned it up. There are a lot of complications in the world economy, U.S.A. is doing well but not the European Union, China, Japan nor emerging markets. Geopolitical is heavy. Then, I think the market is going to be volatile and going to the up and downside.
Dear traders and investors, we are still in October and market participants are very superstitious, we are not navigating in calm waters. Therefore, probably we are going to face extreme movements in the next days. The important is DJIA to stay over DJ16,588 for the stabilization and to have chances for the Thanksgiving Rally.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
miércoles, 15 de octubre de 2014
Serious Technical Breakdown
DJ Resistance: 17,350,54 All-time record high
17,279.94 All-time closing high
17,152 Breakout point
17,015
16,755 Positive 1year trend line broken
16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200 days MA
16,463 Light but important
DJ Support: 16,273.64 Strong Tuesday's low
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
What a reverse!
The damage caused by the downdraft movement is very serious and severe for DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ Composite indexes. The DJIA is the weakest right now.
Technically, I could read a correction considering the breakdown of the 200 days moving average, the 2013 peak at DJ16,588 and the 16 months positive trend line (watch 1 year daily chart) but the very strong support at DJ16,015 is still in play.
To stabilize DJIA, it needs to come over DJ16,588 and stay over it.
I don't expect a bounce up and get a market recovery. The damage shows that the market is reversing and buyers were battled by sellers in the technical levels (please watch volume). I conclude that the market is pointing to the downside and needs the buyers come back to confront the sellers. We are in a war right now and we are going to be witness of several battles.
The third quarter earnings season is going to drive the market direction, not the figures but the investor's interpretation of them.
The risk is to the downside but long term bull market is still in place.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
U.S.A. economy is recovering, not doubt about it. I will name some arguments to support the recovery which is positive for U.S. equities:
-GDP is growing over 2% and seems stronger.
-Bank lending is loose for corporations and individuals.
-Interest rates are low, the ten years bond interest rates has decreased from 3% p.a. at the beginning of the year to 2.4% p.a.
-Oil prices are coming down, gas prices should decrease then individuals will have more buying power.
-Labor market shows slow but constantly improvements.
-Household balance sheet are becoming better. Rising equities and house prices help them.
The confrontation comes from the European Union weak GDP, unemployment, austerity. Lower Germany's GDP expectations. The Chinese GDP below 7%. The India and emerging markets weakness like Brazil.
I think that all these arguments have triggered the stock market downdraft movement besides the geopolitical events. Geopolitical is playing hard in the markets.
Dear traders and investors, it seems that the market is not going to stabilize in few days, instead we are going to have volatile movements. This volatility is dangerous because the risk is to the downside. Please, apply the discipline and stay stick with your plan. It is very easy to lose money with this kind of volatility.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
17,279.94 All-time closing high
17,152 Breakout point
17,015
16,755 Positive 1year trend line broken
16,588 Strong 2013 peak, 200 days MA
16,463 Light but important
DJ Support: 16,273.64 Strong Tuesday's low
16,015 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
What a reverse!
The damage caused by the downdraft movement is very serious and severe for DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ Composite indexes. The DJIA is the weakest right now.
Technically, I could read a correction considering the breakdown of the 200 days moving average, the 2013 peak at DJ16,588 and the 16 months positive trend line (watch 1 year daily chart) but the very strong support at DJ16,015 is still in play.
To stabilize DJIA, it needs to come over DJ16,588 and stay over it.
I don't expect a bounce up and get a market recovery. The damage shows that the market is reversing and buyers were battled by sellers in the technical levels (please watch volume). I conclude that the market is pointing to the downside and needs the buyers come back to confront the sellers. We are in a war right now and we are going to be witness of several battles.
The third quarter earnings season is going to drive the market direction, not the figures but the investor's interpretation of them.
The risk is to the downside but long term bull market is still in place.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
U.S.A. economy is recovering, not doubt about it. I will name some arguments to support the recovery which is positive for U.S. equities:
-GDP is growing over 2% and seems stronger.
-Bank lending is loose for corporations and individuals.
-Interest rates are low, the ten years bond interest rates has decreased from 3% p.a. at the beginning of the year to 2.4% p.a.
-Oil prices are coming down, gas prices should decrease then individuals will have more buying power.
-Labor market shows slow but constantly improvements.
-Household balance sheet are becoming better. Rising equities and house prices help them.
The confrontation comes from the European Union weak GDP, unemployment, austerity. Lower Germany's GDP expectations. The Chinese GDP below 7%. The India and emerging markets weakness like Brazil.
I think that all these arguments have triggered the stock market downdraft movement besides the geopolitical events. Geopolitical is playing hard in the markets.
Dear traders and investors, it seems that the market is not going to stabilize in few days, instead we are going to have volatile movements. This volatility is dangerous because the risk is to the downside. Please, apply the discipline and stay stick with your plan. It is very easy to lose money with this kind of volatility.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
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