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miércoles, 8 de julio de 2015

Potential primary trend shift?

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,204     2014 High
                           17,810     Light

DJ Support:      17,690     200 Days moving average
                           17,579     Strong March low
                           17,466     Today's low
                           17,050     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
Important support DJ17,579 is attacked by the bears. Market supported and bounced up with higher volume (please watch the chart).
DJIA is again over its 200 days moving average which is positive in the present circumstances. DJIA broke down this morning DJ17,579 but bounced up and closed the day in positive territory. The closing is the most important in technical analysis. A violation of the 200 days moving average and the strong support at DJ17,579 would shift the trend to the downside in the short term.
March and June low, approx. DJ17,579,
s the mayor support. The trading range DJ17,579-18,351 is still in play. A violation of the support would mean a primary trend shift.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Grexit is the theme and it would be in the next weeks, solution is not going to be found in two days.
Markets are discounting the Greece exit from Eurozone and European Union. If Greece accepts the Troika conditions it would be better for them, UE and in the world in general. In these moments Greece has weight in the European project but they can live without it. Greece is the two percent in the EU economy. For U.S.A. economy is not a problem but politically and strategically is important.
What I would stress is that the market supports are working, they are still in the range trading and the VIX is not high which means calm.
There is not too much to do until Sunday EU summit to decide if Greece stay or leave. EU and Troika should receive next Thursday the last Greek proposal to get a definitive agreement.
Dear traders and investors, the financial seas are turbulent these days and we can get surprises but at the bottom feels certain calm because this time there has not been surprises and European leaders are prepared and do not accept blackmail from the Greeks.
We wait for the 2nd. earnings season and do not forget the Chinese stock market.
Please, stay cool!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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