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miércoles, 29 de julio de 2015
Red Flag for short term?
DJ Resistance: 18,351 All-time high
18,206 Breakout
18,104 2014 Peak
17,810
17,760 200 Days moving averages
DJ Support: 17,579 March low
17,450 Five months low
17,050 Very strong
Technical Analysis:
DJIA is the weakest index. DJIA broke down its 200 days moving average, important indicator, its March low DJ17,579 and did a new five months low. This backdrop is worry because is showing a red flag indicating a possible shift of direction. What I read important in Tuesday's activity is that the closing was over DJ17,579 March low although yesterday's new five months low DJ17,400, that means an important recovery that we can interpret as a technical chart repair. To confirm it DJIA has to close over its 200 days moving average.
S&P has tested its 200 days moving averages and bounced up, support over that level restores the uptrend.
The consolidation range is DJ17,050-18,351
This year, 2015, is not easy to trade. DJIA has done new record highs but without follow through. Please watch the charts and you are going to realize that the DJIA is toppish but near the highs.
Medium and long term are still to the upside but the broke of 200 days moving averages could indicate an important correction or a shift direction. We have to pay attention technically that the last important correction was three years ago.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
The panic selling of Chinese stocks is affecting the world stock market. The Shanghai Composite fell 8.5% on Monday, the maximum limit down of 10% was touched by a big number of Chinese corporations that are listed on that stock exchange. The fear about the increase of the interest rate in U.S.A. and the strength of the American Dollar also weigh on the financial markets.
But we cannot forget the earnings season, 125 corporations of the S&P 500 are going to show the results of the 2nd. Quarter together with about other 600 American corporations. Bulls are going to find excellent opportunities in the recent weakness of the market.
This and next week is coming a bunch of economic news, for instance the Non-farm payroll and the unemployment rate are for next Friday. Today's FED statement is very important to define if the yesterday bounce up is a dead cat bounce or not.
Are the commodities at the bottom? It is a good question and the answer depends on China's effects. I think the the Gold target still is U.S.$1,000.- as I explained more than one year ago.
Dear traders and investors, times are stormy but we have to put fear aside and take our decisions with calm and rationality. I think that we can find excellent opportunities to buy in the recent weakness of the financial markets.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
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