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martes, 4 de agosto de 2015

Technically still bullish, believe or not

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 Peak
                           17,810     Last top & 200 days moving average

  DJ Support:    17,400     Five months low
                           17,050     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is the weakest index at the moment. It bounced up from its five months low DJ17,400 to the important resistance DJ 17,810 and 200 day moving average, same with 20 and 50 days moving averages, and it could not break up. Immediately DJIA retraced and today closed at DJ17,551. This movement shows weakness for DJIA but it remains in its consolidation range DJ17,050-18,351. If you watch the daily chart you will realize that in the last 3 months DJIA did lower highs which means red alert flags for DJIA in the short term. Also DJIA is toppish in the last 6 months. Is it bearish or we are next to face a bear market?
Conversely the S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have a different backdrop, they supported over its 200 days moving averages, important support and guide which indicates long term trend. S&P is also toppish in the last 3 months and NASDAQ COMPOSITE did higher highs in the last 5 months.
What I read is that although the DJIA weakness the other 2 indexes maintain its bullish bias and barring they break down their supports, S&P2,080 and 2,070 200 days moving average. If they have enough steam to try the upper side, they will draw the DJIA.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
Apple and commodities are playing in the last ten sessions of the market, they reflect weakness. Apple has dropped 10% and has entered in a correction territory. Apple is 4% of S&P and 14% of NASDAQ COMPOSITE.
Growth in China and Shanghai Stock Exchange weigh into the market action. Greece is still in play.
Earnings season did not bring fuel for a summer rally. We have to pay attention to the economic news that are coming in the next fifteen days. This week the ADP employment on Wednesday, the unemployment rate and Non-farm payroll on Friday are going to rule the activity.
Dear traders and investors, the growth in China affects almost all the world, if they produce less they demand less, that affects the commodities prices, the commerce and so on. EU is still fighting with Greece but they are doing better, specially Spain, it is growing over 3% p.a. Brazil is in big troubles, Argentina and Venezuela are not left behind. Financial markets are ready to go into the Summer doldrums and are well supported. What I am trying to tell you is that those doldrums are welcome but we have to be alert because it would be easy a change in the market trend with the summer volume. Panic would be desastrous.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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