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miércoles, 25 de noviembre de 2015

Pullback?

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                        18,206     Breakout
                        18,104     2014 peak
                        17,978     November peak
                       
DJ Support:     17,810     Light
                        17,589     200 days moving average
                        17,579     August breakdown
                        17,210     Last bounce
                        17,125     Light
                        17,050    Very strong
                       16,933.43 September peak
                       16,667     Strong
                       16,460     Light
                       15,980     Very strong
                       15,651.24 Important
                       15,370.33 Very important

Technical Analysis:
There is a rally from the November low after a clear engulfing to the upside. This is bullish in the DJIA. The November peak DJ17,978 is an important resistance to go to the inflection point DJ18,104 (2014 peak).
The important support is at DJ17,579 and DJ17,589 (200 days moving average).
DJIA consolidation over DJ17,050 and DJ16,933.43 is bullish-leaning in the long run. DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are working technically over well-defined supports.
DJ17,978 (November peak) is going to be a battlefield for the bears and bulls, pay attention to this. It seems difficult to get a Thanksgiving rally breaking up this level, there are two days for that.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
The geopolitical worries have stopped the empowered rally after the engulfing seven days ago. Economic news are not the best but still positive for example 3rd. quarter GDP.
This is a shortened week and this Wednesday we are going to get important news like durable goods orders, consumer sentiment, consumer spending, core inflation and so on.
The last news about consumer confidence came below expectations at 90.4 and the lowest since September 2014.
Dear traders and investors, I think that we are not going to have Thanksgiving rally. The markets participants are expecting the sales results of this holiday to perceive if the Christmas rally is coming. Then what we should do is to wait for this information and to be ready to go long at DJ17,579 and DJ17,050.
This year is confused and what has paid is the long side, some short sellers have done good money but only on trading not taking position for the long run. We still have five weeks before the end of the year, if we can read the rally we'll close the year with a nice smile. I am bullish over DJ17,050.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

           

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