DJ Resistance: 18,351 All-time high
18,206 Breakout
18,104 2014 Peak
17,978 November peak
17,810
17,590 200 Days moving Average
17,579 Very important
DJ Support: 17,420 Last week low
17,410 50 Days moving average
17,210 November low
17,125
17,050 Very strong
16,933.43 September peak
16,667 Very strong
16,410 Light
15,980 Very strong
15,651.51 Important
15,370.33 Very important
Technical Analysis:
DJIA has worked in a small range during the last two weeks and it is supported by DJ17,210 (November low), DJ17,410 (50 days moving average) and DJ17,420 (last week low). If those supports are broken we have to put the alert. DJIA over DJ17,050 is constructive and bullish-leaning barring a breakdown that could be catastrophic. DJIA had a pronounced up spike in October that could explain the rest of the market in the last fifteen days.
DJIA and S&P have formed in the last five weeks a short term triangle doing lower highs and higher low, please watch the daily chart. The triangle breakout explodes. S&P important supports are 1,993, 2,020 and 2,040.
The positive and negative trend lines for the medium term are very clear in the chart.
The trend in the long run is bullish but Christmas rally seems not to come this year..
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
Non-farm payroll was positive last Friday, earnings are neutral but not negative. We are going to continue getting economic news until next week when FED will decide about the interest raise which is discounted by the markets.
Tuesday's weakness was due to the crude oil's continued prices slide and the Chinese Trade Balance data that showed out a deceleration in the exports and imports affecting their economy. The Shangai index lost 2%.
The domino effect came to Europe and U.S.A.., especially in mining, materials and equipment firms. Technology and consumer oriented corporation are positive don't forget we are in holiday shopping season.
Dear traders and investors, we have worked a lot in this difficult year. I don't expect a Christmas rally for the end of the year, it could be. It seems to me that the year is going to close in the same level as the year started. Same for the S&P.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
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