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miércoles, 16 de diciembre de 2015

FED: Interest Rates Hike?

DJ resistance:  18,351    All-time high
                       18,206     Breakout
                       18,104     2014 peak
                       17,978     November peak
                       17,810  
                       17,584     200 Days moving average
                       17,579     Inflection point

DJ Support:    17,125      Strong confirmed
                       17,050      Very strong
                       16,933.43 Sepetember peak
                       16,667     Very strong
                       16,410     Light
                       15,980     Very strong
                       15,651.51 Important
                       15,370.33 Very important

Technical Analysis:
DJIA worked still in the small range but broke down the supports. Then we have to be alert.
DJ17,050 and DJIA 16,933.43 supports are very strong and DJIA over those levels is constructive and bullish-leaning barring a breakdown that could be catastrophic as I explained last week.
DJ17,579 and DJ17,584 (200 days moving average) are the inflection points, if the DJIA breaks up over them the trend in the short and long term are bullish.
DJ17,125 support was tested and confirmed yesterday (DJ17,138 low of the day), the index bounced up from this level.
DJIA is stronger in this moment than S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE.
S&P supports 1,993 (today's low), 2,020 and resistance 2,040.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Well, interest rates will hike? This Wednesday is the day. Market has discounted the beginning of the interest rates hike in 9 years by FOMC. Personally, I am not sure but the majority of the experts expect this increase in December.
If the interest rates hike is done it will be minimal. The inflation is below 2% p.a., the FED's target is 2% p.a., thanks in part to the oil's low price. The U.S. Dollar should increase its value in front of the other currencies. From last year the U.S. Dollar has won 12% in value against to the Euro. This a good new for the American importers, U.S.A. inflation and a bad new for the debtors in the American currency like some emerging countries. The liquidity is going to be reduced that is bad for junk bonds.
I think the investors are rebalancing their portfolios rotating to strong and good stocks and selling junk bonds and buying Treasury and strong corporation bonds.
Dear traders and investors, I still count on the consumption and more after the Friday Retail sales figures. I find difficult a market revert after interest rates FOMC decision. That explains my position to be long over DJ17,050. For the moment there is nothing to do only wait for this Wednesday. I think the FED should raise the rates with a message that it is necessary and they are not going to disrupt the economy.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

 

1 comentario:

  1. CS CLOSING BELL:
    NIFTY SPOT DOWN 82@7762
    SENSEX DOWN 285@ 25520
    BANK NIFTY FUTURES DOWN 125@ 16645
    HAVE A NICE DAY!
    Intraday trading report

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