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miércoles, 10 de febrero de 2016

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                        18,206      Breakout
                        18,104      2014 peak
                        17,978      November peak
                        17,810
                        17,579      Inflection point
                        17,388      200 days moving average
                        17,125      Old support
                        17,050      Old strong support
                        16,933.43 September peak
                        16,667      Strong
                        16,468

DJ Support:
                        15,980      Strong
                        15,800
                        15,766      January closing low
                        15,450      Strong
                        15,370.33 2015 low very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is fighting over very important supports (DJ15,370.33, 15,450, 15,766 and 15,980) and it needs to break above DJ16,667 to give opportunity to the bulls for a next up leg. S&P is almost on the same backdrop and needs to sleep over SP1,872. S&P next important support is SP1,812. DJIA stays in a range during the last 15 days and is stronger than S&P.
Support DJ15,980 is constantly tested and the lukewarm bounces up are still away from the important resistance DJ16,667.
Have DJIA formed a head & shoulder? It seems it (please watch 6 Months Daily Chart).
The DJIA bearish-leaning for long term is becoming more consistent.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.


                     
Fundamentals:
Last Friday January unemployment rate 4.9% was positive for the U.S.A. economics, non-farm payroll were less than expected. These and other economic news bring us to expect that FED is not going to raise interest rates on March and maybe it is going to wait until the end of the year.
The U.S. economy grew 2.5% in 2015 and the White House have projected 2.6% for 2016 and 2017. The Federal Reserve has forecasted 2.4% growth for 2016 and 2.2% for 2017. In summary the U.S. economic expectations are positive. EU is growing at a slower pace, China at 6.9% in 2015 and expects same for 2016, Brazil is really in problems, etc. It should be enough for a stabilization of the financial markets but fears about possible global recession are driving the selling-off, the big problem is if panic drives the markets.
England, Japan, France, Germany, Hong Kong and China already are in a bear market (have lost more than 20% from all-time high). S&P have lost 13% from the peak. May U.S.A. financial markets resist the attacks of the rest of the global markets?
Pay attention to U.S. Dollar after FED's Yellen congressional testimony this Wednesday and federal budget this afternoon at 2 p.m.
Dear traders and investors, fear is in the air, the trend shifted to the downside in the long run. What we risk is a bear market. S&P and DJIA are fighting in good supports, if they work well the trigger for an up leg is almost ready. But if they failed the bear market is going to be alive. I agree that a purge of stock prices will be beneficial for the financial markets and new buyers.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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