DJ Resistance: 18,351 All-time high
18,206 Breakout
18,167
18,104 2014 peak
17,978 November 2014 peak
17,810 Strong and important
DJ Support: 17,579 Inflection point
17,485. April low
17,400
17,125 Very strong
17,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
16,667 Inflection point
16,468
16,200 Light
15,980 Very strong
15,450 Strong
15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low
Technical Analysis:
DJIA did a retracement like S&P looking to test the supports. Both have to overcome DJ17,810 and SP2,080 to be again in the bull way to the all-time highs.
DJIA has important supports at DJ17,650 (last week low), DJ17,579 (inflection point now support), and DJ17,125 (very strong support). S&P supports are SP2,052, 2,040, 2,020.
DJIA and S&P are consolidating before to try to visit the upper side of the charts. It could be in July with the earnings season.
The bullish-leaning bias is still in play for the long term barring a violation of DJ17,125.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals:
May arrived and the market trend is bullish. From May to October the stock market gets its harder period of the year. Normally the stock market becomes weak in May and there is a summer rally in July with the earnings season, after that the market goes to the doldrums in August and the first two weeks of September.
FED is trying to avoid interest rates raise because the economy is not in the best shape. The corporate earnings are coming weaker during the last five consecutive quarters. What do explain the last rally born in February? The low interest rates that maintains a weak dollar and consequently the commodities stay stable and hectic. The low interest rates also allow the over-valued market. Following this idea we can anticipate that the fund managers will try to get cash selling part of their portfolios if S&P goes above SP2,100 in May and June.
European Union and Japan maintain low interest rates, we can think about negatives. If Fed raises interest rates the dollar will skyrocket affecting the week U.S.A. economics.
The bulls need the growth returns, better corporate earnings, solid consumption figures. If growth doesn't come back the risk of a bear market will be increased, watch the very strong support DJ15,371.33.
Dear trader and investors, DJIA did well looking for the all-time high but to reach it DJIA needs better economic health to advance further. For example the U.S. Manufacturing March good figure was reversed in April to 50.8.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
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