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miércoles, 18 de mayo de 2016

Still bullish-leaning backdrop

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,980      November 2015 peak
                           17,800    
                           17,579      Important inflection point
                         
DJ Support:      17,420      May low
                           17,400    
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The stock market stays in a range and big mouvement should come when the range-bounds will be broken.
Today DJIA did a new May low but we can consider that the index is still in a range DJ17,400-17,980 and for the S&P 2,020-2,100. As the important supports worked well the bullish-leaning backdrop is still in place. The price action was technically, it is important to pay attention at today DJIA did the May low with the higher volume of the month. If the May lows would be violated with bigger volume should be considered as a possible turn to bearish bias.
Both DJIA and S&P are below 50 days moving average and over 200 DMA which should be a strong support.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The oil price increase made the stock market party on Monday, but the falls of the stock market in the last days were driven by Apple.
Investors could not continue betting a higher stock market if oil prices increase because they expect more taxes, more goverment spending, more investment from oil corporations and bank failures avoided due the loans to the oil corporations. In the other hand the stock market valuation these days are based on low interest rates, if markets suspect an interest rates hikes glimpse the sell off begins inmediately. There are various theories about what happen and will happen in the market.
Dear traders and investors, my think is that the stock market is in a range and to get a mouvement the market needs to break the range-bounds. We are getting mixed news about the economy but the  news are more inclined with the bulls in these moments. Charts through technical analysis show a bull trend also. The breakout is coming in the next weeks. I could extend the spech about fundamentals but as the market is in range, it is better to be alert and ready for the mouvement.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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