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miércoles, 29 de junio de 2016

Dead cat bounce?

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      June peak
                           17,980      November 2015 peak
                           17,788      50 Days moving average
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433      May closing low
                           17,425      2015 close

DJ Support:     17,249      200 Days moving average
                          17,125      Very strong and proved
                          16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                          16,667      Inflection point
                          16,520
                          16,200      Light
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,450      Strong
                          15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA lost about 900 points from June high and bounce up a bit more than 300 points. The index has formed a double top with the two intents on June to break DJ18,000, please watch the chart, the target of this formation is DJ16,850.
DJIA has perforated DJ17,579 and 17,242 (200 days moving average). Today's close was at DJ17,409 which is over DJ17,249 (Today's 200 days moving average), that is very important to strengthen the bulls. To overcome next resistance DJ17,425-17,433 is determinant to think about repairs, especially DJ17,579.
S&P did almost the same as DJIA and plunged from SP2,120 June high to  SP1,993 violating important support at SP2,040 now  clear resistance and 200 days moving average at 2,023.
June downdraft was very aggressive, broke down the lower triangle boundary (last week chart) and downward movement was explosive triggered by Brexit.
 The backdrop is bearish-leaning.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Actually Brexit is awful for the European project, commercial markets, financial markets, etc. but it is not the end of the world. Right now there is a decisive fight between bears and bulls that is going to take some time particularly with the summer doldrums in the horizon. Bulls are winning at this moment.
What to do? There are two scenarios. One is that Brexit is between United Kingdom and Europe, and is one more add to increase the risk aversion which can affect the economic data and stock prices. Let's say that the possibility for a bear market has raised and bulls are losing the fight. The other one takes into account the same argument but considers that the impact in the U.S. economy is minimal then investors will disregard it easily with lower stock prices, better Earnings Yield and low interest rates. That means for a long term investor an opportunity to increase his portfolio because if the old bull market finishes and a bear market is imposed, in three or four years he will be back in the money.

Dear traders and investors, one of the two possibilities that I indicated above will be imposed as outcome. But how? It will be imposed by the majority of investors' decision not by which one is more rational or which one is the best. For the time being I would suggest a defensive attitude in the investments, I would prefer U.S. stocks.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises




                             

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