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miércoles, 15 de junio de 2016

Markets stay in the range

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,016      June peak
                           17,980      November 2015 peak
                           17,800

DJ Support:      17,664
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,425     2015 close
                           17,332      May low
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point  
                           16,520
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15.371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P could not progress to the all-time highs and retraced from resistance DJ18,810. Indexes stay in the range. S&P overcame April high but it was not the case for DJIA. For S&P de SP2,040 support is very important and it should work. For DJIA the support is DJ17,579. Below those levels we could see weakness in the indexes, next support DJ17,332 May low and the strong support for the DJIA would be DJ17,125.
Do not forget the 200 days moving average working this time as strong support for both indexes, DJ17,175.
Despite the retracement DJIA has a still a bullish bias and seems well supported.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
                      
 Fundamentals:
Brexit fears is ruling the market. Votes in favor the Brexit are increasing lately that explains why the 10 top European stock exchanges have lost about 400,000 billion in four days. The interest rates in Bund's are negative for the first time because investors sell stock and look for solid haven like Bund's. The sterling is losing value against the Dollar, Yen and Suisse Frank.
Soros and Icahn are negative about the market and are playing against it that explains also part of the weakness in the last days.
Investors that realize that the market is near to the tops immediately look around to see if all is o.k. but this time is easy to find potential problems such as the oil prices are below U.S. Dollar 50.- again, the slower worldwide growth, China concerns, manufacturing slump, the last two months weak U.S. employment reports and so on.
Retail sales report on Tuesday was strong enough to raise GDP Q2 estimation to +2.8% from +2%.
It is important the Federal funds announcement this Wednesday.

Dear traders and investors, there are not important economic news this week to move the markets. I think that we have to wait until July first week to see how the corporate earnings season will affect the market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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