DJ Resistance: 18,351 All-time high
18,206 Breakout
18,104 2014 peak
18,171 April peak
18,016 June peak
17,980 November 2015 peak
17,800
DJ Support: 17,664
17,579 August 2015 inflection point
17,425 2015 close
17,332 May low
17,125 Very strong
16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
16,667 Inflection point
16,520
16,200 Light
15,980 Very strong
15,450 Strong
15.371.33 Very strong 2015 low
Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P could not progress to the all-time highs and retraced from resistance DJ18,810. Indexes stay in the range. S&P overcame April high but it was not the case for DJIA. For S&P de SP2,040 support is very important and it should work. For DJIA the support is DJ17,579. Below those levels we could see weakness in the indexes, next support DJ17,332 May low and the strong support for the DJIA would be DJ17,125.
Do not forget the 200 days moving average working this time as strong support for both indexes, DJ17,175.
Despite the retracement DJIA has a still a bullish bias and seems well supported.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
Brexit fears is ruling the market. Votes in favor the Brexit are increasing lately that explains why the 10 top European stock exchanges have lost about 400,000 billion in four days. The interest rates in Bund's are negative for the first time because investors sell stock and look for solid haven like Bund's. The sterling is losing value against the Dollar, Yen and Suisse Frank.
Soros and Icahn are negative about the market and are playing against it that explains also part of the weakness in the last days.
Investors that realize that the market is near to the tops immediately look around to see if all is o.k. but this time is easy to find potential problems such as the oil prices are below U.S. Dollar 50.- again, the slower worldwide growth, China concerns, manufacturing slump, the last two months weak U.S. employment reports and so on.
Retail sales report on Tuesday was strong enough to raise GDP Q2 estimation to +2.8% from +2%.
It is important the Federal funds announcement this Wednesday.
Dear traders and investors, there are not important economic news this week to move the markets. I think that we have to wait until July first week to see how the corporate earnings season will affect the market.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
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