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miércoles, 17 de agosto de 2016

Small step by small step making new highs

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high

DJ Support:      18,470      Important
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,221
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,498      200 Days moving average
                           17,433      June low
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes have continued doing new all-time highs in a slow motion. This continued up move is considered real and supports the bullish bias. The July breakout is supported and a consolidation phase is in place.
Important supports are DJ18,470, 18,351 (old all-time high), 18,171 and 18,016 (breakout).
The Brexit June whipsaw, "V" bottom, puts a target of DJ18,970 and SP2,235 for the S&P 500.
20 days moving average supports DJIA at DJ18,491.
First important support for S&P is SP2,175 equivalent to DJ18,470.
Summer August movement will be reconfirmed in September or October due the too low volume, please watch it at the chart.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The upcoming news are light for the market until September ISM Mfg, ISM Services and unemployment. These three economic news can shake the market. What could the market's behavior be until the news arrive? It should continue the trend that we have witnessed during the last seven weeks let's say to the upside.
Market is having three scenarios in front. First, the up move will continue, second the consolidation phase is going to take long but it would create the base for an upward move and third, we are going to enter in a correction phase that could trigger a bear market. In my opinion de first two scenarios are the most possible, why? The recent economic data has put the Q3 GDP estimated at +3.6% after the Q2   disappointed +1.2%. The consensus estimate +2.8% for Q3. The largest component of GDP is the consumer spending which grew 4.2% in Q2 compare to +1.6% in Q1. Retail sales grew by 3.1% in the 2016 first semester compared with the same period in 2015. Spending on durable goods +8.4%, spending on non-durable goods +6.0% and services +3.0% with respect to Q1.

Dear traders and investors, August is August, the interest rates are still low and the U.S.A. economy is doing well not spectacular but like in the last years path that means slow but constant. I don't know how August is going to close but the trend is up sustained by the technical analysis and fundamentals. We have to discuss about the U.S.A., EU, Japanese, China and other countries debt, it is a dangerous problem, but for the moment liquidity is needed to overcome the various crises.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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