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miércoles, 18 de enero de 2017

Bull trend, DJ 20,000 resistance

DJ Resistance:  19,999.63  All-time high
                           19,887.38  December peak

DJ Support:      19,810
                           19,710      Strong
                           19,396      50Days moving average
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
From the second December week to now DJIA has established a range which supports the bull trend. The range-bound is DJ19,710 to 19,999.63. DJ20,000 is capping the bull's efforts.
S&P support in the equivalent range is SP2,234 and SP2,248. S&P has almost the same behavior as the DJIA, it did a shy new high without follow through.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE is leading the uptrend doing new all-time highs constantly.
The backdrop is bullish-leaning after technical analysis.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
Last Friday earnings season of Q4 started up. Banks like BAC, WFC, and JPM gave positive results announcing a very possible interesting season. This year we are expecting two interest raises by the FED. The inflation is standing at 1.6% which does not menace the possible economic expansion that is a good new. Banks did very well during Trump rally but now it stopped and is waiting for clear signs.
World Bank announced that expects a 2.7% of global growth which is positive for the world especially for U.S.A. and European Community. It expects a stabilization and slightly higher prices for commodities. The downside risk is in the emerging markets if they slowdown its investments and political uncertainty, for example Brazil Lavajato crise. Trump protectionism is another risk for trade.
U.S. dollar is strong and could become stronger with the interest rates hike and EU is doing the contrary to U.S.A relating to political stimulus QE. Both could bring the U.S. dollar to parity with the Euro.
Dear traders and investors, the markets are waiting for the new elected President Mr. Trump's oath on January 20th. and the new congress. I think that we are no get big movement for the moment. The weight is on the upside now. The up or down of the market will be done by earnings season and the corporations optimism for this year, let's see!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

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