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jueves, 5 de julio de 2018

Dow Jones weaker than S&P

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  March peak
                           25,086       May peak
                           25,000
                           24,905       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,603       50 Days moving average
                           24,356       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                         
DJ Support:      24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
At the opening of the third quarter S&P is in bullish trend for the mid and long term and DJIA instead is in a notably weak position. Volatility is constant present as it was on the first semester of this year.
S&P range is SP2,692-2,742.
DJIA has been closing under the 200 days moving average during the 6-last session. It is bearish. DJIA needs to overcome the 200 days moving average (DJ24,356) and eventually DJ24,719, 2017 close, to aspire to return to the bull path. DJ24,603 (50 days moving average) is also important. DJ24,000 should be a good support for the short term. If you watch the daily chart, you will realize that DJIA is doing a lower low with respect with end May low (DJ24,247), it shows the trend shift.
The negative trend line should act as support for DJIA.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are at the beginning of the 2018's third quarter and earnings season is coming; would we have a Summer Rally? The market has enough chances to bring it based on the strong economy. You can confirm the positive that we have gotten last week and also Monday and Tuesday like Retails sales up 4.4%, Factory Orders 0.4%, and so on.
We have to watch how the market is going to act today after the release of the FED's meeting minutes and tomorrow U.S. jobs report.
The trade war clouds are weighing on the market. The instability and fears do not allow to have a consistent rebound. Every intent of the market is avoided by the new measures and threatens taken by U.S.A, China and EU.

Dear traders and investors, I expect to have a positive market in this second semester of 2018. I expect the economy will continue its growing path and the corporations doing better. The trade war is a constant obstacle but I actually expect a leg up soon.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises



                       

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