S&P New Record Closing

DJ Resistance:  19,999.63  New all-time high

                           19,987

                           19,972

                          

DJ Support:      19,678      January low

                           19,573      50 Days moving average

                           19,200      Strong

                           19,090     

                           18,800

                           18,668      Old all-time high

                           18,247      August low

                           18,000      Strong

                           17,833.23 November low

                           17,579      Inflection point

                           17,125      Very strong

Technical Analysis:

S&P closed in a new all-time high at SP2, 280. This is very positive for the bulls. The DJIA backdrop is weaker than S&P but after has done a new January low at DJ19, 678 last week bounced up and it is looking for the DJ20, 000. The last six weeks range is still valid.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE got a new all-time high at NAS5, 601.

The three indexes are bullish-leaning.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals: 

The new president is in charge and active. He began his presidency taking some actions that he promised during the election campaign.

The market is watching his decisions and actions and trying to identify if there would be a continuation of Trump rally.

4th. quarter GNP is expected over +2% and probably 2.8 this coming Friday. Market is in earnings season and surprises are more positive than negative. Election promises are to add growth prospects like less regulations, increase infrastructure spending and lower taxes. All those would generate higher earnings and possibly higher stock prices.

The market is expecting two or three interest rates hike this 2017. If strong growth sparks inflation would be negative for the market. The other risk is the new administration could confront the European Union, China, Mexico and Canada, if the market sees it as a trade war, it will sell the long positions to avoid risks and to lose money. 

Dear traders and investors, my opinion is to be bullish with these positive perspectives paying attention to a possible high inflation and trade war.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

                  

Bull trend, DJ 20,000 resistance

DJ Resistance:  19,999.63  All-time high
                           19,887.38  December peak

DJ Support:      19,810
                           19,710      Strong
                           19,396      50Days moving average
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
From the second December week to now DJIA has established a range which supports the bull trend. The range-bound is DJ19,710 to 19,999.63. DJ20,000 is capping the bull's efforts.
S&P support in the equivalent range is SP2,234 and SP2,248. S&P has almost the same behavior as the DJIA, it did a shy new high without follow through.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE is leading the uptrend doing new all-time highs constantly.
The backdrop is bullish-leaning after technical analysis.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Last Friday earnings season of Q4 started up. Banks like BAC, WFC, and JPM gave positive results announcing a very possible interesting season. This year we are expecting two interest raises by the FED. The inflation is standing at 1.6% which does not menace the possible economic expansion that is a good new. Banks did very well during Trump rally but now it stopped and is waiting for clear signs.
World Bank announced that expects a 2.7% of global growth which is positive for the world especially for U.S.A. and European Community. It expects a stabilization and slightly higher prices for commodities. The downside risk is in the emerging markets if they slowdown its investments and political uncertainty, for example Brazil Lavajato crise. Trump protectionism is another risk for trade.
U.S. dollar is strong and could become stronger with the interest rates hike and EU is doing the contrary to U.S.A relating to political stimulus QE. Both could bring the U.S. dollar to parity with the Euro.
Dear traders and investors, the markets are waiting for the new elected President Mr. Trump's oath on January 20th. and the new congress. I think that we are no get big movement for the moment. The weight is on the upside now. The up or down of the market will be done by earnings season and the corporations optimism for this year, let's see!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Trend is clear bull leaning

DJ Resistance:  19,999.63      All-time high
                           19,887.38      December peak

DJ Support:      19,810
                           19,719      Strong
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong
Technical Analysis:
S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have gotten new historic highs, and DJIA has tried to break DJ20,000. December had an interesting volume.
The charts show a clear trend to the upside. NASDAQ COMPOSITE did a new all-time high fueled by Amazon, Google, Netflix and Facebook. It has confirmed its bull trend with several closing new all-time highs. S&P did a new all-time high but without really breaking out.
DJ20,000 is a target and represent a strong resistance, bulls have to fight to overcome it. DJIA has two months closing over its 20 days moving average. The strong support is between DJ19,712 - 19,750.
Technical analysis indicates a firm bull trend. 2017 has began very optimistic.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
The market is plenty of positive economic news. NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business), America small business association and small business optimism index, gave yesterday an impressive reading to 105.8 the best one from 2004. That means more investments, spending and job growth, the two thirds of GDP in U.S.A. is make up by the consumer. We can expect then higher economic growth, earnings growth and share prices.
The market is waiting for the new president of U.S.A.
Dear traders and investors, 2017 promises to be a very interesting year, it seems very positive for the stock market and I am glad to be back with you.  Excuse me because it seems that there are problems with the blog server.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Bull Trend, DJIA 20,000?

DJ Resistance:  19,988      New all-time high
                           19,975      Last closing

DJ Support:      19,966
                           19,750
                           19,510      20 Days moving average
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800      Strong
                           18,668      August & old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579     Inflection point
                           17,125     Very strong
                           16,520
                           15,980      Strong
                           15,450      Very strong
                           15,370.33 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is approaching DJ20,000. It is important to remark that the trend is leaning bullish although the FED increased the interest rates last week. It was discounted by the market. The stock market is in a rally from November low.  DJ20,000 is besieged by the bulls, will this time resist their attack? It seems that the DJ20,000 will be surpassed by the bulls. The trend is to the upside and the backdrop shows a leaning bullish.
It would be very important to consolidate the advances of the market but this is Christmas Rally, volume is very high and the markets are measured at their resistances.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We expect positive numbers for 4th. Quarter and 2017 quarters with relation to the GDP because the interest rate hike seems to be orderly and there are signs that corporations are going to invest and individuals are going to spend more, both were waiting for the elections results. If that, it would be worth to be invested.
DJ20,000 and S&P2,300 are next target for bulls.

Dear traders and investors, we are in rally mode, Christmas Rally, stay long stocks, the trend is to the upside and economy is doing well as some corporations. The consumption plays important role in the U.S.A. economy and it is robust.  The stock market had a difficult behavior during the last three years to make money. The last two months up move has been a great change and offers an optimistic future for 2017.
We have had difficult times for trading and investing because the market stayed in a range with big surprises Brexit and U.S. election movement, but we were always optimistic with the bullish mode and we were awarded with November and December rally. I wish you Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a Happy and Marvelous New Year!
We will be always working together and I am very happy for having helped you to navigate in these so turbulent seas.


Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Bulls control the trend: Is the FED coming?

DJ Resistance:  20,000
                           19,953.75 New all-time high
                           19,911      Last closing

DJ Support:      19,550      Hourly chart
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,060      Hourly chart
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,888.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,520
                           15,980      Strong
                           15,450      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has taken 7 straight days doing new all-time high. The three indexes are in uncharted territory. DJIA is the strongest attacking the 20,000.
It is hard to define the DJ supports in these new territories. DJ19,200 should be the important support. The way to the upside was done almost without resistance from November 4th. The bounce up is similar to the Brexit breakout.
The three indexes show a firmly bullish trend for the long term.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Well, this Wednesday is the day to increase the interest rates by the FED. The market is waiting for that from almost two years. It is so odd that the stock market is doing all-time new highs with expectations about raise of interest rates, that is explaned by the investors always look to the future.
We have witnessed a rotation in the stock market during the last three weeks, investors were looking for growth, positioning and avoiding conservative and dividing paying stocks.
Christmas Rally? It seems that we are in a constant rally after more than two years playing in the range.
Dear traders and investors, besides economy the market expects a positive 2017 for the stock market, my opinion is to stay long with growth stocks.
Nothing more to say by the time.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
            

Leaning-bullish Trend

DJ Resistance:  19,275      All-time high
                         

DJ Support:      19,225
                           19,150
                           19,055
                           18,920      Strong
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,470      Strong & 50 days MA
                           18,030      200 Days moving average
                           17,995      Strong
                           17,888.23 November low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA, the strongest index, got new all-time high on Monday DJ19,275, its natural target is DJ19,300 as I have indicated 2 or 3 weeks ago. Good support will be DJ19,150. Watch the index at resistances to calibrate the strength.
We can say that DJIA is in a rally mode and preparing itself for a possible Christmas Rally, then the trend is to the upside barring a brake out of supports.

Click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
S&P is ready for new all-time high, it didn't get like DJIA it because to the rotation looking for stock growth.
Next important economic new is Consumer Sentiment this coming Friday which should be positive and the almost sure rate increase by the FED on December 14th. The others are not relevant this week.
The market feels that the best place to invest the money is the stock market. I think the best would be a consolidation before to continue to new highs where the market will take profits. It would be shortly before SP2,280 and DJ19,500. But it seems the rally is in continuous mode.
Dear traders and investors, DJIA and S&P are looking for higher skies stay long stocks.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!


                         

Clear Bull Trend

DJ Resistance:  19,152      All-time high
                         
DJ Support:      19,090      Light
                           18,923      Old time closing high
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,470
                           18,247      August low
                           17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                           17,990      200 days moving average
                           17,888.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520    
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Strong very strong

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes did new all-time highs, they broke their respective resistances. November began with a sell off and reversed with the Brexit style. The reverse brought us with a strong rally to new highs just after the elections. The bull flag broke trigered the DJIA to new all-time highs.
DJIA is the strongest index in these moments. DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ Composite are in uncharted territory. DJIA has strong supports at DJ18,923 and 18,668.
The market needs to consolidate these new highs and DJ19,300 to 19,350 could be the target if Christmas rally.
The mid-term trend is bullish.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
                         
                     

Fundamentals:
After the elections we got our announced rally, I am very happy because this time we have reed very well the market.
 Economics are doing well, yesterday good news are:
Consumer Confidence to 107.1 from 98.6, the best from the previous 2008 crisis, Redbook Weekly Retail Sales Report the best of the year, and GDP revised to 3.2% from 2.9%.
Retail Sales positive.
Hopefully we are going to receive the New Year with a Christmas rally.
We are going to have important news like the pending rise of interest rates between others. My opinion is that the market needs to consolidate its advances before to continue its uptrend.
Dear traders and investors, economy is improving which means better profits and higher stock prices. Stay with positions in the stock market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises