At Major Resistance: Negative Trendline

DJ Resistance:  18,351      Al-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,978      November 2015 peak
                           17,810
                           17,649      March 2016 peak

DJ Support:     17,579      Inflection point
                          17,400
                          17,128      200 Days moving average
                          17,125      Old strong resistance
                          16,933.43 September 2015 peak
                          16,667      Very strong inflection point
                          16,468
                          16,200      Light
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,450      Strong
                          15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
March rally confirms the midterm trend is bullish.  The long term is toppish and still bearish-leaning. The market has closed the first trimester with a strong downdraft and a nice bounce at the close. Basically the DJIA and S&P closed flat.
DJIA strong support are DJ17,128 (200 days moving average) and DJ17,125 (old strong resistance).
If DJIA goes through DJ17,649 (march 2015 peak) we could face a solid upward move that could change the long term trend. Please pay attention the negative trend line. The last behavior of DJIA and S&P are supporting by a clear bullish momentum.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Japan and EU (European Union) are with negative interest rates and apply QE (quantitative easing) to stimulate the economy through bank lending. Eureka Yen and Euro became stronger, and in Japan the demand for high-denomination banknotes surprised the BOJ (Bank of Japan).
The Atlanta FED decreased its estimation for the first quarter GDP from 1.9% to 1.4%.
The market is confused with the rate rise by FED. If they rise it means that economy is well, if they don't means economy has weakness or there are risks.
We will face important economic news as unemployment rate and non-farm payroll this Friday, earnings season is coming in the next 10 days. All these information could help the bulls to try to break the negative trend line.
Dear traders and investors, the market is positive and bullish, big battle in the area DJ17,800.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

W got target and ....

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,978      November 2015 peak
                           17,810
                       
DJ Support:      17,579      Inflection point
                           17,139      200 Days moving average
                           17,125      Old resistance
                           17,050      Old strong resistance
                           16,933.43 September 2015 peak
                           16,667      Very strong inflection point
                           16,468
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes are strengthen and DJIA and S&P have broken out important resistances. DJIA double bottom (W) has reached its target which is very positive and shows the uptrend although the overbought condition in the short term. The battle ground to the upside begins at DJ17,810. All this area is formed by important resistances specially the negative trend line coming from the all-time high DJ18,351. For S&P are SP2,054 and SP2,080.
DJIA supports starts at DJ17,139 200 days moving average, DJ17,125 old strong resistance and DJ17,050 old very strong resistance and finally DJ16,933.43 September 2015 peak. S&P supports are SP2,020 September peak and November 2015 low.
If negative trend line is broken up, the trend in the long term will shift to a bullish vue. I think the market needs a consolidation period.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The two rates hick for 2016 offered by FED brought calm to the markets, personally I would prefer only one. This FED decision could incentive the currency war because a stronger U.S. Dollar will affect the exports. Asia countries need weak currencies to maintain their exports and their economic activities. European Union needs a Euro weaker to activate its economy looking for better exports.
This is one point to consider, the other one is if the stock market is overvalued, if that the stock prices should decrease. Corporate earnings are failing from three quarters ago. But if the market considers an increase in the consumers' potential based on employment and good wages it is the time to buy.
Dear traders and investors, the Brussels's attacks are awful and attempt against the freedom. What important is that the markets in U.S.A. resisted yesterday, European took loses. This week the markets are going to be drive by geopolitical effects due the treacherous terrorist attack in Brussels and Easter.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         

Dow Jones over 200 Days Moving Average

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time hgh
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,978      2015 November peak
                           17,810
                           17,579      Inflection point
                         
DJ Support:     17,183      200 Days moving average
                          17,125      Old resistance
                          17,050      Strong old resistance
                          16,933.43 2015 September peak
                          16,800
                          16,667      Very strong inflection point
                          16,766     January low
                          16,468
                          16,200      Light
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,450      Strong
                          15,370.33 Vey strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA managed to climb and pass the level between DJ16,933.43 and DJ17,125 and in addition 200 days moving average DJ17,179. The S&P is just below the strong resistant at SP2,020 and 200 days moving average at SP2,023. Let's say that the DJIA backdrop is more solid than in S&P.
DJIA next target is DJ17,600 (W double bottom target) very near to the inflection point DJ 17,579. For that S&P has to break out resistances at SP2,020 and 2,023, support is at SP1,993 December low. The DJIA strong support now is DJ16,933.43 September 2015 peak.
The long term trend is still bearish and the midterm is bullish-leaning.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
This week we will have important economic data from U.S.A. and global like from China besides the FOMC meeting with its release on Wednesday. It seems that this year volatility will drive the financial markets, U.S.A. growth will be less than 3 % and lower earnings outlook. This last one is not disappointed because corporate earnings are coming down during the last three trimesters. I think that stocks will posts modest returns on 2,016 but higher than bonds or cash, and the risk of recession is very low.
Almost 90% of the S&P corporations have given their quarterly results and for the next we have to wait for the second trimester.
Retail sales were weak but as unemployment is strong, the market expects a consumer revitalization. This is the bull case.
Dear traders and investors, I think that this and next week the trade will be driven by the economic news not by technical analysis. If economic data will be positive, market will go up and bearish participants will close short positions in the short term but if they disappoint, supports will be tested. In the short term the market is in a bullish swing. It seems to me that DJ17,600 target is achievable.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

  

At Mayor Resistance

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 peak
                           17,978     November 2015 peak
                           17,810
                           17,579     Inflection point
                           17,179     200 Days moving average
                           17,125     Old support very strong
                           17,099     Last Monday high
                           17,050     Strong old support

DJ Support:     16,933.43 September 2015 peak
                          16,667      Very strong & inflection point
                          16,468
                          16,200      Light
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,766      January low
                          15,450      Strong
                          15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has rallied to DJIA17,125 getting only Monday high at DJ17,099. S&P did the same approaching SP2,000. This battlefield is going to gauge the strength between the bulls and bears who have begun to sell. Supports are DJ16,933.43, SP1,993 and 1,978, and the crucial DJ16,667, S&P at 1,950.
The double bottom (W) formed in DJIA and S&P charts have a target DJ17,600 but before has to overcome  DJ17,125, breakdown point, which should be a strong resistance and the break out, if done, should clear the way to the important area DJ17,600.
200 days moving average resistances are DJ17,179 and SP2,022.
Long term trend is bearish and mid-term is bullish-leaning.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
This week there are not many economic news but next week yes. These last days the oil prices, China exports and technical have driven the market.
For this and next week we don't  care about an increase in the interest rates, possible it is going to be postponed for June FOMC because there is not upward wage pressure. What is in the market is the lower earnings expectations for U.S.A. stock markets. Some ones call it "Earnings Recession". If forward earnings are in jeopardy that means that the market is over-valued and investors are no going to buy stocks at 19x EPS (Earnings per Share). Rationally, they would expect to buy them below 17xEPS or lower. That explains the short term bounce up of the market.
Dear traders and investors, market is still complicated. The U.S.A. economics are doing well but lastly the domestic consume is weakening. I expect a technical trade for this week and next we'll have important economic news that will drive the market. Please read carefully the Technical Analysis chapter and navigate accordingly.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

   

Dow Jones breaking out crucial resistance

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,978      November 2015 peak
                           17,810
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,200      200 days moving average
                           17,125      Old support
                           17,050      Strong old support
                           16,933.43 2015 September 2015 peak

DJ Support:      16,667      Very strong
                           16,468
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Strong
                           15,766      January closing low
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
Finally DJIA broke up the resistance at DJ16,667 and slept over it. These are positive for the bulls, they can expect chart repairs for the next up leg. The same is for S&P when it broke up resistance at SP1,950. The DJIA backdrop is stronger than S&P.
Next DJIA resistance is the DJ16,933.43 to 17,125 panning and it should be harsh. S&P equivalent is SP1,993 (December low).
We can conclude that mid-term direction has shifted bullish if DJIA stays and sleeps over DJ16,667 but long term is still leaning-bearish for the three indexes.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

 Fundamentals:
DJIA is bouncing up and bulls try to maintain the momentum. We will get very important economic news this week like ISM-non manufacturing on Thursday.  ADP employment, beige book, factory orders, productivity, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate among others. These news are going to drive the market this and next week. Corporate earnings are weak but in the discounted figures.
Dear traders and investors, it is the time for the bulls technically. Personally, I think this could be a good bounce but data indicates me that this is not enough to visit the all-time high. In summary, this week economic news will drive the markets.

 Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises              

Bear-bull Battleground in Key Resistance

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                        18,206      Breakout
                        18,104      2014 peak
                        17,978      November 2015 peak
                        17,810
                        17,579      Inflection point
                        17,242      200 Days moving average
                        17,125      Old support
                        17,050      Old strong support
                        16,933.43 September peak
                        16,667      Very strong
                        16,628      50 Days moving average
                        16,468

 DJ Support:    16,200     Light
                        15,980     Strong
                        15,766     January closing low
                        15,450     Strong
                        15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The market bounced up forming a W bottom and it stopped just in the key resistance which is a bear-bull battleground (DJIA 16,667 and S&P 1,950). If W bottom breaks up the resistance it would be a great victory for the bulls but its fight will be harsh and long. They need to sleep and stay over DJ 16,667 to look for the next up leg and chart repairs.
50 days moving average worked as resistance (DJIA 16,628 and S&P 1,947). Market touched them and retraced this Tuesday. It was very technically (please watch it on the chart). Next support is at DJ16,200.
DJIA is stronger than S&P this time.
The charts in the long term maintain its bearish-leaning trend, in the immediate outlook DJIA and S&P should try again to attempt against the resistances and if they fail we will visit the strong supports to say the least.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

 Fundamentals:
The Monday and initially Tuesday up move came from oil up move which today was stopped by oil minister of Saudi Arabia oil minister remarks about refuse to cut production. Its idea is to satisfy its clients.
Energy business based on a U.S.$ 100.- per barrel could fail and the banks which finance them are risking big losses.
Investors are fearful about banks' liquidity. Last week Deutsche Bank CEO said "solid as a rock" and the market sold it off. We can also see how much the cost to insure banks' debt have soared Deutsche Bank 180% and Credit Suisse has been affected too. Personally I think that today banks are better capitalized than in 2008.
U.S.A., EU, and some Asian countries are doing well. Consumer spending and Confidence based on a strong labor market besides earnings season are driven good sales for different industries like cars, housing and naturally entertainment. Indexes are not in its all-time high and we are facing price corrections, what happens or what fear is in the air? Recession fears are in the air.
Dear traders and investors, the trend shifted to the down side in the long term but in the short term it is not clear because the indexes are over strong supports. I expect lower stock prices that would be healthy for the financial markets because lower P/E.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises           

Bounce Up Still Below Important Resistance

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                        18,206      Breakout
                        18,104      2014 peak
                        17,978      November peak
                        17,810
                        17,579      Inflection point
                        17,322      200 Days moving average
                        17,125      Old support
                        17,050      Old strong support
                        16,933.43  September peak
                        16,667      Very strong
                        16,468
                        16,200      Light
 DJ Support:
                        15,980      Strong
                        15,766      January closing low
                        15,450      Strong
                        15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA went down and before DJ15,450 support bounced up and began a possible rally closing today at DJ16,196. Next crucial resistance is at DJ16,468 and the gauge bear-bull resistance is at DJ16,667, S&P equivalent is SP1,950. Over that resistance the bulls can dream about charts repairs and new leg up. The 2016 financial markets plunge has generated a mayor technical damages on the charts.
DJ15,980 is again a strong support.
In the short term the DJIA is looking to bounce up and is bearish-leaning in the long term. Bulls needs to bring DJIA over DJ16,667 to try to change the trend.
The one year daily chart has a potential triple bottom.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market's bounce is due to the 4 oil export country decision to freeze the oil production. It generated an increase in the oil price of 12%, it got over U.S.$31.- per barrel in the last days. DJIA bounced up 2 Monday) and 1.39% (Tuesday). Oil stocks gained 2.5%. What does the difference between 12% oil prices increase versus oil stocks 2.5% increase mean? Investors think that the oil up move is limited in a small period of time.
We have to pay attention about the U.S.Dollar strength because it will limit U.S. exports and the U.S. corporation's dividends repatriate to U.S.A.
European banks are getting some troubles specially Italians because they have not created a bank for bad loans. The ECB (European Central Bank) has to put more money in Italy providing liquidity to the domestic market.
DJIA nor S&P are not in a technical bear market, then the whipsaw are going to continue because S&P could look for SP1,710 which is the 20% correction from the all-time high.
Stock market is bouncing up which is a good new. Japan GDP decreased 1.4% and China exports fell 6.6%.
Dear traders and investors, the market tries to bounce up but it is too early to take a bullish bias, it could be a dead cat bounce.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises