Dow Jones Index Average almost at 16.500

Dear traders and investors,

My wish is that you have had a beatiful Christmas time with your families and the message of peace, love and union are in the hearts of all the world.

We have gotten the expected Christmas rally and we will see what DJ level achieve, at least DJ16.500.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We are going to work together during all 2014, that makes me delighted and fortunate to have the opportunity of cooperating with you colleagues.

See you next week.

Ulises

Can the bull market last during 2014?

This is a very good article about if the bull market can last during 2014. I took it from Finantial Times, read with patience as we await for the Federal Reserve announcement about the taper at 2 P.M.

http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2013/12/15/can-the-bull-market-last-another-year/?

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Wednesday: QE tapering ?

DJ Resistance : 16.174      All-time high
                            16.097      All-time high close.
                            16.058
                            15.930

DJ Support       : 15.720      Strong (October pick)
                            15.687      50 days moving averages (50MA)
                            15.550      Strong
                            14.760      Very strong

Technical Analysis :
The DJ bounced up from the strong support area DJ15.721-15.797, technically the importance of this support is confirmed and the bullish bias too. The Dow Jones Index Average over this area is contructive positive and do not fear to be long. Below this support is another history.
It was the same for the S&P at SP1.775 and NASDAQ at 3.995. The two index bounced up.
The support DJ15.900 now is a resistance at DJ15.930. The DJ also is supported with the 50 and 200 days moving average.
The five years daily and one year daily charts have  intact positive trend lines. They work as support and both are not the same.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals :
The market behavior has been back and forth in these last days, something that do not surprise us in this time of the year. Specially this end of the year when we are facing the end of the QE3 and we don't know if we are in a robust recovery, the unemployment and consumption still have mist.
Why I am positive? Because the economic news, for example the last GDP numbers, non-farm payroll, Empire State Manufacturing Index (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), U.S. labor productivity, the Tankan Book (Bank of Japan), Europe is turning to growth, U.K. property houses prices are rising, and so on, in addition of the charts and technical analysis conclusions.
Why are the stock prices in these levels? It is because of the liquidity from QE1,2 and 3, the corporations have been reorganized so are efficient, competitive, and the cash they have right now. Those prices have to be adjusted but when? When the factors change and we are going to evalue the new reality.
Mr. Mohamed El-Erian thinks December taper as high as 60%, I have read that 88% of the funds managers don't expect December taper. Mi opinion is that tapering is going to begin next year because inflation is still low in these moments.

Dear trader and investors, this Wednesday all the market is waiting for the FOMC decision. Then, we are going to see how the market reacts. I am still with the possibility of Christmast rally for next week. The mouvements in the finantials market after Christmats are sudden and strong due the lower volume and the few participants.
I try to assist you by giving my views and analysis so you navigate in the market with rationality without emotions. I am a trader, I know very well how hard is to take decisions in these markets and how our emotions affect our trading.

KEEP THE COURSE ACCORDING TO THE TAKEN STRATEGY!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

U.S. Budget Deal

DJ Resistance : 16.174     All-time high
                            16.097     All-time high close
                            16.058     Monday's high

DJ Support     :   15.900
                            15.797     Strong support confirmed
                            15.721     Strong (October pick)
                            15.550     Strong
                            14.760     Very strong

Very sorry for the delay, it was because I was flying since Tuesday noon until this morning.

Technical Analysis : 
The S&P did a new all-time high and the Nasdaq got highs we didn't see in the last thirteen years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is lagging but in a constructive way. It bounced up from the strong support spanning DJ15.721 - 15.797. This support area is confirmed now. My opinion is that de DJ over 15.797 is strong and bullish.
The DJ index is still over 20,50 and 200 moving averages. All of these put the index in a positive position and it has to overcome DJ 16.097,all-time closing high, to look for new highs.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

The "V" reversal target is about DJ16.600.

Fundamentals :

As I explained in the last actualization of the blog we have to keep the discipline and do not take emotional decisions with these back and forth of the market during these days.

If we are going to have the Christmats Rally, it is going to begin on December 23rd. and finish the first week of January.

We are getting good economic news like unemployment, non farm payroll after a positive earnings season. There is U.S.budget deal which is excellent, we have to analyse the terms for the economy.After all of this,

I feel confortable with the idea to close the year with the DJ over 16.500

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

And now?

DJ Resistance : 16.174    All-time high
                            16.120
                            16.098

DJ Support      :  15.900    Closing low on November 22nd.
                            15.860
                            15.797
                            15.721    Strong (October pick)
                            15.550    Strong
                            14.760    Very strong (range support)

Technical Analysis :
We got the small rally for Thanksgiving with a new high in the Dow Jones industrial average. The problem is from now on.
The DJ and S&P did new record highs last week and we faced retracement in the last three sessions. The strong support at DJ15.900.82 as indicated last week worked very well this Tuesday. The 20 days moving average is acting as strong support now (gold line in the last week chart). It is not coincidence or fortune teller, this is technical analysis.
The DJ over the upper range line DJ 15.721 is bullish and strong positive. Do not  forget the "V Reversal" broke up target is DJ16.600 approximately and DJ is in unknown territory.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it

Fundamentals :
What will happen from now onwards?
The market is getting good economic news in the last thirty days. This week we are going to get a lot of important economic news like November employment situation, specially on Wednesday. If we continue getting these kinds of news the blue-chip benchmark is going to hit DJ16.500 this year.
The national budget will be discussed again in the Congress in December.
What do I expect? I think that we are going to face some retracement and corrections which is very good for the stock market. People are going to sell some positions in the first two weeks of December  to balance their portfolios and to be prepared for 2013 taxes. That means possibly the market is going to be in back and forths for the next two weeks.
The fall of the last three sessions  were originated for fears tapering and today's announcement of a Michigan judge allowing  Detroit bankruptcy process to continue. This last could be the first between other municipalities in financial problems.

Dear traders and investors, normally the market comes down after Thanksgiving. We could get Christmas Rally after December 20. It all depends on the economic news and the mood of the market. Do not get bored during these two or three weeks and do not take emocional decisions. Discipline is the key.

 Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones Industrial Average new record high

DJ Resistance : 16.120    New record high

DJ Support      :  16.030
                            15.900.82 Strong Low November 22nd.
                            15.797
                            15.700      Strong

Technical Analysis:
The blue-chip benchmark got a new record high today. The DJ index lost steam at the close of the session but ended in positive.
The S&P also touched a new record high and the NASDAQ finally overcame 4.000 points, incredible.
Well, we got the small Thanksgiving rally.
We have to pay attention to the broke up DJ 15.721 resistance with "V Reversal" because the technical target should be DJ16.600 aproximately.
The Dow Jones Index is right now over a positive trend line coming from this "V reversal" (blue line in the chart enclosed).
Please click on the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals :
Not too much to comment before Thanksgiving.
We got encouraging economic news today as the U.S. Home Prices and U.S. Building Permits. The U.S. Consumer Confidence unexpectedly continues to deteriorate in November. The Conference Board Consumer Index dipped to 72 from upwardly revised 72.6 in October. As I have explained last week the consumer sentiment worries me.

Dear traders and investors, I wish you an excellent time with your families. Le foyer is for me very important, it is the base of the family and I will dedicate these days to them.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving and a Happy Holidays!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

S&P got 1.803 new all-time high

DJ Resistance : 16.030   New all-time high
                            16.000   Psychological

DJ Support      :  15.797   Prior all-time high
                            15.721   October peak
                            15.540   Important
                            14.760   Strong (range support)
                            14.400   Very strong

Technical Analysis :
The S&P got its all-time high at 1.800 as it was our target.
The Dow Jones index and the S&P are in their unknown territory, therefore it is not easy to define the resistances.
According the technical analysis the DJ is in a positive trend in the short term while stays above DJ15.797. Medium and long term also are in a constructive way. You can watch it in the daily chart.
The six months range was broken up at the resistance at DJ15.797, and the "V" reversal did it plainly at the same level. This should be a very good support and the "V" reversal still has a long way to the upside according to the technical analysis.
What worries me is the volume.  It is true that at the break up volume increased but not much enough for historical new highs. We have to pay attention on this.
Thanksgiving is coming, we will see  if market rallies.
The next charts are going to show you the path to navigate in these markets.

Please, click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals :

Low interest rates, liquidity and better-than-expected earnings explain why the stock prices are so high therefore the Dow Jones Industrial Averages is in new historical highs.

The U.S. economy is increasing slowly and Europe is leaving its downfall. The U.S. economy needs to grow faster  in a sustainable way and without  the consumption increase there is no recovery.  What worries is the consumer confidence. If saving rather than spending due that they fear about losing their jobs, the demand of goods is going to be weak , then the corporations are going to stop hiring because their expectations about sales. The investments will slow since they do not expect better sales and so on is the chain. Finally they are going to fire workers, the salaries will decrease which means no inflation, the possiblities for the deflacion will be latent  and continuing with this scheme we will be like Japan in the 1990s.

Do not be scared, I tried only to explain what happen when deflation comes.  U.S.A. is far from that scenario and Europe showed healthy signs of a possible recovery. The crisis comes from 2008 and we are finishing 2013, it has lasted too long. It is the time to correct the course definitely that concerns us all. I think that the market needs a healthy correction but over DJ15.797 it is strong with a clear upside.

I am still optimistic with the stock market because there are positive fundamentals in front of us besides the technicals. But we can not neglect this time.

After we have gotten our target S&P1.800 do we deserve a rest? naturally not. Sometimes we win, the most, and in others we lose but we are always in the markets trying to do our best. Passion is the great difference.

Dear traders and investors, Thanksgiving is coming in ten days, it is an important holiday. For us, traders and investors, generally it comes with a small rally. Let's see it! 

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

S&P failed new highs

DJ Resistance : 15.797 All time high

DJ Support      : 15.721 October peak
                           15.580 Minor
                           15.540 Strong (hourly chart)
                           15.410
                           14.760 Strong (daily chart)
                           14.400 Very strong (1 year daily chart)

Technical Analysis :
Finally DJ got new all-time highs and a weekly close over 15.721 (October peak). The blue-chip benchmark penetrated the upperside of the range ( 14.400 - 15.721) being the leader this time. The DJ index is still over 20,50 and 200 days moving averages and over the positive trend line and in the positive channel from the lows of March 2009 (watch last week chart). All of these are bullish.
The S&P failed trying to get new highs (over October peak 1.775). Right now its resistances are S&P 1.771.95 (all-time closing high) and 1.775.22 (all-time high). Maybe we are facing the S&P exhaustion if we consider the overbought indicators and we could get a healthy correction in November. I say that because the Nasdaq is lagging now. The S&P is ready for new highs but when?.
The DJ index and the S&P promise new highs in the short term, and its median and long term inclination point for higher.
Please click to enlarge the chart

Fundamentals :
The fundamentals are more difficult than the technicals specially in these times.
The U.S.A. economy is growing slow, but growing. We still have in front of us the budget approuval (December) and the debt ceiling (February) among other incertainties like the consumer sentiment, unemployment, tapering and so on. The earnings season is positive, the corporations are healthy and have cash. The  world needs a sustainable growths, that is the real problem.
I reed on Monday an article in the WSJ by Alexandra Scaggs "Five years after the finantial crisis, individual investors are piling into stocks again amid sings that the U.S. economy is slowly gaining steam. The buyers, many with investment portfolios that were scorched during the market meltdown, are climbing aboard a ride to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average".
As you know when everybody jumps into the stock market it is considered a contrarian indicator.
I would like to suggest to read the next article http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21589439-rich-world-and-especially-euro-zone-risks-harmfully-low-inflation in The Economist about deflation and ultra low inflation.
Live is not easy, it is a fight. I am optimistic by my nature. I have learned that one has to do his work studying and analyzing to develop solid and sustainable positions to face life or markets if so we want to call them.
Janet Yellen, nominee to take over as chair of the Fed, heads to Congress on Thursday for her confirmation hearing.

Dear traders and investors, rationally I consider that the market is in a positive way that we will see higher levels based on fundamentals and technical analysis. We should have two rallies before the end of the year, for Thanksgiving and Christmast. This is my opinion.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones new high?

DJ Resistance :  15.721      All-time high
                             15.680.35 Record closing high

DJ Support      :   15.543
                             15.500     Minor
                             15.375    Strong
                             14.760    Strong
                             14.400    Very strong

Technical Analysis :
As I explained last week the Dow Jones encountered a big fight between bulls and bears in the the levels of its all-time high. It is not a coincidence, it is the defined battle field where sellers and buyers are. The S&P is in unknown territory and the Dow Jones is lagging. The Dow Jones needs a weekly close over DJ15.721 to confirm that it is following the S&P in new territory. For that, the Dow Jones index has to overcome DJ15.658, August peak, DJ15.680.35, record closing high, and 15.721, October peak.
Technically the Dow Jones has this three positive factors ;
- Dow Jones daily chart shows the index over 20,50 and 200 moving average(MA).
- Dow Jones  index has formed a "V shape reversal" in the daily chart of the last two months and the range is very clear DJ14.760 to 15.721.
- The Dow Jones is still over the positive trend and in the positive channel coming from March 2009.

According to the technical analysis also it can be the DJ drag down the S&P if the DJ could not penetrate the resistances. Be aware!
The S&P should drag up the blue-chip benchmark.

Fundamentals :
The U.S.A. economy is growing in a slow mode. The market needs a sustainable growth. The October non-farm payroll and unemployment are coming this Friday.
The other important point for growth is the consumer confidence. Without consomption the economy is going to be weak.
Those are the predominant factors for this week.

The bulls and bears are fighting in these high historical levels of the market. That explains why the Dow Jones could not overcome the resistances but the pullback is shallow, I find it bullish. The bulls are concentrating its forces to attack the resistances again. The bears have a hard work in their lines to stop the bulls. November and December are the high sales season of the year.
Dear traders and investors, are we going to have Thanksgiving and Christmast rally? Fundamentals and technical analysis are pointing for the rallies.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

DJ15.658 August peak gotten

DJ Resistance :  15.709.58   Historical high
                           
DJ Support      :   15.658       August peak
                             15.500       Minor
                             15.375       Strong
                             14.760      Strong
                             14.400      Very Strong

Technical Analysis :
The DJ index has risen and broken up the first resistance at 15.658 equivalent to August peak, target indicated on October 22nd.
The S&P got another all-time high at 1.772.
In general terms, the market technicals are positive this year and in an uptrend moment. The blue-chip benchmark needs a weekly close over its all-time high, we will see it.
Dow Jones should continue its ascent to its historical high where the field is ready with the bulls and bears for the big battle.
Please pay attention to the 20,50 and 200 day moving averages as support, they are pointing up. The last year daily chart is beautiful and it is the map to manage well in the battle.

Fundamentals :
This Wednesday finishes the two-days Federal Reserve (FED) meeting. Markets expect that the FED will continue with the monhtly quantitative easing (QE) at 85 billion asset-purchase. The FED taper should start out on the spring of the next year. Surely, it depens on the new jobs and the unemployment rate evolution. The FED has enough room and flexibility to act on this matter.
The last economic news have been well but not enough strong. The earnings season has been pretty good. Until this momnet the 68% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported positive earnings. The revenue side is weak as the two prior trimesters of 2013.
This market requires a correction. The stock prices are in the actual levels due the liquidity coming from QE and the reorganization and rationalization of the corporations. They have a lot of cash and are very efficient. When? the answer is not easy.

I think with good earnings and the liquidity injection from the monthly  QE, the S&P is ready to attack 1.800 level and the Dow Jones index to give the battle in its all-time high. Big fight between bulls and bears.

Make decisions objectively and coldly, stay firm on your plan. At this point we can get surprises easily.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones is lagging

Technical analysis:
The S&P and Nasdaq have broken up their resistances. S&P keeps in its historical new highs after have passed the previous. Nasdaq did almost the same and is in its thirteen years new highs. The DJ index is the only one which is lagging.

Fundamentals:
We are still getting positive news from the economy as the sale of building materials, with some corporations such as Ford.

I expect the Dow Jones to follow S&P and Nasdaq to the upside. I don't think the blue-chip benchmark is going to drag to the downside the other two indexes.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Bullish Mode

Bullish Mode

DJ Resistance :   15.709.58 All time high
                          15.658      August peak

DJ Support    :   15.413      Last week top
                          15.150
                          14.719 - 14.760  Strong
                          14.400      Very strong

Technical Analysis :
The S&P is in its all time high and NASDAQ in its thirteen years high. Both are doing very well  in their bullish trend. Despite the Dow Jones index is lagging, it has broken up DJ15.413 last week top and is targeting DJ15.658 August peak.
Normally the S&P or NASDAQ initiates the movement. The three indexes are pointing up right now but the blue-chip benchmark needs a weekly close over DJ15.709.58
The DJ is over the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages, those means good support for the index.

Fundamentals :
The 148.000 September non-farm payroll employment and 7.2% unemployment rate news are positive but not enough as the U.S.A. economy needs them. A strong american economy in growth asks for at least 250.000 monthly new jobs.
We are in the earnings seasons, I expect good corporative results. We can not forget that October is the month of the stock market crashes, I don't say that for superticion but for psychology.
The american economy is going to pay for the consequences of the October goverment shutdown and the debt-ceiling. The estimation is about 20 billion for the last 2013 trimester.
My position in this moment is that we are going to see the S&P at 1.800 before the end of the year. We have in front of us the Thanksgiving and Christmas rally. I am not a fortune teller, I try to get all the information I need, I study and  analyze it and finally I take rational conclusions.

Dear traders and investors, you are not alone I am with you in this fascinating activity, sometimes we are winners and sometimes we lose but we always fight to be better and to win in these markets.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Bull market?

Please click on the chart to enlarge it

Technical analysis:
As you can see in the chart the DJ index is in a bull trend from March 2009. You have to pay attention that in the last six months the blue-chip benchmark is toppish in a range DJ14.400 - 15.709.58. This index needs a weekly close over DJ15.709.58 to continue with the positive trend.

Fundamentals :
The politicians's incompetence weight in the market. We are going possibly to be in the same situation in January and February as it was in the last fifteen days.
Today's problem is distrust. We are in earnings season which should be positive. But if the market have lost confidence and the DJ index does not overcome  DJ15.709.58, the bull market could be finish or at least in problems waiting for a definitive solucion about the national budget and indebtedness at the beginning of the next year.
The S&P operates well in new historical high, the DJ index is lagging.

Let the market speak!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Two days for the debt-ceiling deadline

DJ Resistance :  15.709.58 Historical high
                           15.555      Minor
                           15.433     Important
                           15.308      Strong
                           15.172      50-Day MA(moving average)

DJ Support     :  15.050
                         14.945      Minor
                         14.719      Strong, October low
                         14.550      Minor
                         14.400     Very strong

Technical Analysis :
Actually I am impressed how the two supports worked very well.This is neither  coincidence nor  fortune teller,it is technical analysis:
- DJ14.760 August low
- DJ14.770 200-Day Moving Average

In technical analysis the 200-Day moving average determines the long term trend. The DJ retested that support succesfully so the uptrend continues.
The DJ rebound from those levels is positive and therefore we can consider the three positive days (October 10,11 and 14) , higher highs erase August low violation at DJ14.719 on Wednesday October 9th.
The positive trend and the positive channel from March 2009 in the daily chart have not been broken.
We conclude the DJ index is still in a positive trend.

Fundamentals :
Not to much to say. The goverment shutdown and specially the debt-ceiling deadline on October 17th. are going to drive the market. The first important payment is for October 31st. and the second one is for November 1st. The Treasury is expecting to collect circa 100 billion from October 17th. until October 31st.which means that the default, if any, could be done after November second week.
Dear traders and investors this is it for the next two days, stay cool and cold, you are professionals. The moment of truth is very close.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Chart: Triple top, head & shoulder or range in the one year daily?

Waiting for the sun?

DJ Resistance  : 15.709.58 Historical high
                         15.555      Minor
                         15.433      Important
                         15.270      Strong fight
                         15.090      Minor
                         14.860      Minor

DJ Support      : 14.760      Strong  daily chart, and 200MA
                          14.550     Minor
                          14.400     Very Strong

Technical Analysis :
The DJ index is pointing down during the last 14 days.  During this period we are confronting lower highs and lower lows, negative!  The positive trend line from November 2012 is percolated at 15.000 aprox. We can trace a negative trend line from the historical high to today's closing DJ 14.777 . Coincidence with the strong support at 14.760? not for sure.
On the daily chart from the March 2009 lows the DJ is still over the positive trend line and in the positive channel.
Pay attention to the possible triple top or head and shoulder in the six months daily chart. This pattern would be very negative to the blue-chip benchmark index. In the same chart there is a possible range DJ 14.400 to 15.709. The ranges explode to the up or down side with strong mouvements.

Fundamentals :
The market is coming down despite the positive economic news due the goverment shutdown and debt ceiling weight.
What to say? Honestly we should expect a balance fix with a national compromise about the future debt ceiling and budget with the Obama's care Law implementation because it is an approuved Law. If not, all the world together is going to pay for this american crazyness.
I actually have to say that I am still optimistic because the rationalization and restructuring of the american corporations as I explained in the prior blog update. Maybe, it is the time for a healthy great correction in the market to open up the stocks's prices. This is why I said "cash is king" and that the main risk was the debt ceiling at the end of August and in September. We are possibly facing the formation of a wave due the politicians's incompetence.
DO NOT PANIC, we have to put our emotions away and navigate through these waters with objectivity, coolness and discipline. It is not the end of the world, it is only a life's chapter.
I will upload a chart tomorrow to assist you in the navigation.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Is the U.S.A. economy in a stellar moment of the humanity?

DJ Resistance : 15.709.58 Historical high
                        15.555
                        15.433       Important
                        15.270       Strong fight
                        15.210       Minor

DJ Support :     15.085
                        14.760      Strong
                        14.400      Very strong

Dear traders and investors, I would like to appologize for this small delay, I was looking at the goverment shutdown and I had the illusion about a compromise in the first 24 hours.

Technical Analysis :
The DJ technicals are bending due the U.S. congressional inaction but the positive trend line and channel from March 2009, the positive trend line from November 2012 prevail and The DJ has not lost the uptrend. We have to pay attention  to the possible triple top formation in the 6 months daily chart which implies negativity and the possible range DJ 14.400 to 15.709.58 is important too.

Fundamentals :
The political enviroment is overridding the unexpected economic news as I mentioned last week.
The earnings season is comming but the market focus is in the Congress impasse.
The U.S. economy loses 0.2 percentage points on four-quarter GDP if the shutdown lasts a week, 0.4 points if it lasts 2 weeks and so on.
The debt- limit is the main risk and the Treasury expects to exaust its borrowing capacity for October 17th. That means the shutdown could last 2 weeks and it is what I think. The test for the Treasury is for October 31st. when it has to pay 6 billion dollars in bond coupons.

We have to stay calm, put our emotions away. We are living a stellar moment in U.S.A., the economy is recovering, weak but recovering, this impasse could stop it, a balanced solution could boost with positivism in the american spirit and we know what America is capable.
It is time that U.S.A. take control on its debt for the sake of the country.

I am committed to write the blog every Tuesday and make an update at least during the week. I will upload charts to the blog.

Dear traders and investors I want to thank you for hosting this blog and messages of encouragement have been sent to me with feeling. All the traders form a single family, we are to help us and support us.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Pullback?

DJ resistance :   15.709.58  historical high
                         15.475
                         15.302  50day MA (moving average)

DJ support  :     15.050
                         14.800
                         14.550
                         14.400 Strong
                         14.400 Strong very important

Technical analysis : 
The DJ index got its historical highest level last week 15.709.58 and closing at 15.676.94 on September 18th. The DJ index needs a weekly closing over those levels to reconfirm the positive trend.
The market trend still points higher. The monthly chart from 1988 shows positive besides the positive trend line and channel on the daily chart from March 2009.
But there is a risk, if you watch the daily chart in the last six months, you are going to realise that the DJ could be forming a triple top that is very negative or  a clear range between 14.400 and 15.709.58.

Fundamentals  :
The DJ is losing streaks in the last five days because the possible goverment shutdown overriding the better than expected economic news.
Besides, the debt ceiling theme is for October. The QE worries are translated to October 29th. in the next FOMC. The market perceive the Syria fears softer.
It is clear that some of the key factors of the almost five years bull market have been the high liquidity level from QE, the corporate  rationalisation and reestructuration, they are more efficient and solid.
We have to pay attention on Thursday to weekly jobless claims, consumer spending, PCE price index, and on Friday to personal income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

We conclude the DJ is in a positive trend, I am still optimistic  with the stock matket, we are facing risks but life is a risk.
I am trying to include charts to show you the support of our conclusion and you could use them to navigate in these hectic market.
Dear traders and investors my goal is to assist you in our  solitude  property in decision-making in our profession,
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

New highs for the Dow Jones index?

DJ resistance :    15.658,36  Strong (historical high)
                          15.050

DJ support    :     15.380
                           15.350
                           15.050 Strong (very important)
                           14.760 Very Strong


Technicals : The Dow Jones index is still over the positive trendline and in the positive channel from the March 2009 lows. Technicals support a bull issue in the short and long term. The S&P is at almost its high peak 1.709. The major resistance for DJ is its historical high15.658.36 and this target remains strong as a technical test. To confirm the uptrend the DJ has to close higher to complete the higher high.
But if you watch the DJ daily chart, you are going to realise that the blue-chip benchmark could be in a range DJ14.400 - 15.658.36 and if it not penetrates this upper line the DJ is going to form a triple top that would be negative for this index.

Fundamentals : The September market brought a lot of concerns like QE tapering (FED FOMC September 18th.), weak employment, Syria fears (soft for the moment), U.S.A. budget (sequester), debt ceiling (October), and so on.

We can conclude that the technical analysis supports the bulls despite the fundamental concerns.

Dear traders and investors,
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

August lows excellent support for the Dow Jones index

DJ resistance :    15.410  Strong
                          15.240  50 days moving average

DJ Support   :    15.050  prior resistance now support
                          15.000
                          14.916  prior resistance now support
                          14.760  Strong

The major U.S. stock market benchmarks are acting well technically despite September conjuncture like Syria geopolitical issues, FOMC concerns( next September 17th. and 18th.) about QE, unemployment (U.S.A. needs at least 250.000 new jobs every month to assure growth and to absorb unemployees and new labours), budget (sequester), debt ceiling(October), etc.

DJ rebounded from the technical support DJ14.760 in an splendid way and broke up  resistances DJ 14.916 and 15.050. The blu-chip benchmark has rallied to three week high from August lows. You can see those levels in the last comentary on September 2nd.

As I indicated the Dow Jones index is over the positive trend line and positive channel from 2009 lows what is very positive. I maintain my optimism in the stock market.

This positive stock market response is due to  more strong data out of China, peaceful signs about Syria, Europe in a positive way to its weak recovery, U.S.A. weak but recovery. It seems that we are going to see the highs of the Dow Jones again before de year end.

Traders and investors, I wish you Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

September stock market?

Dow Jones Resistance : 15.658 HIGH August 2,2013
                                       15.500
                                       15.050
                                       14.916

                   Support     : 14.760
                                       14.551   Strong
                                       14.382   Strong  3/18/2013 low
                                       14.127
                                       13.784   Strong  2/25/2013

From technical analysis the Dow Jones Index broke down  the last year positive trend line around DJ 15.000 but it is still in the positive trend line and positive channel from February 27, 2009 lows, that is very good.

I am still optimistic with the stock market and today we have gotten encouraging news about factory activities growth  in Spain, Italy, United Kingdom and China but due the actual conjuncture and September is regularly the worst month of the year for the stock market, I prefer to apply "cash-is-king".

I am going to watch these events or statistic news during September and explain why I will be for the cash to be ready to jump into the market.
- India deficit and Rupee weakness
- Brasil weak Real and interest rates rose to 9% p.a.
- Syria war fears, it is difficult to calibrate the consecuences
- QE tapering, watch FOMC on September 17th. and 18th. Will tapering begin? The U.S. deficit has shrunk and the Treasury needs to issue less new securities.
- China weak growth
- U.S.A. weak growth, it seems that GDP is going to grow only 1.7% on the third quarter instead 2% as market expected. BoA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sacks have reduced their expectations. Debt ceiling is for October.
- U.S. housing sales are not growing as last year, besides the 40% of the house sales are paid in cash. That means that foreigners and investors are the buyers, this is not good for a sustainable economy.

My dear fellows, I intend to support you because I know how hard is our profession and the loneliness that we came in our decisions.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

August 27th.,2013 at 3:17 P.M.
Dow Jones index broke down strong support at 14.880
Nasdaq broke down support at 3.639 next 3.627
S&P broke down strong support at 1639
QE, Syria fears, debt ceiling and not a good earnings season are weighting on the markets.
Europe coming back to normal activity  after holidays.

We have to watch the closing of the day