Bull Trend, DJIA 20,000?

DJ Resistance:  19,988      New all-time high
                           19,975      Last closing

DJ Support:      19,966
                           19,750
                           19,510      20 Days moving average
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800      Strong
                           18,668      August & old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579     Inflection point
                           17,125     Very strong
                           16,520
                           15,980      Strong
                           15,450      Very strong
                           15,370.33 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is approaching DJ20,000. It is important to remark that the trend is leaning bullish although the FED increased the interest rates last week. It was discounted by the market. The stock market is in a rally from November low.  DJ20,000 is besieged by the bulls, will this time resist their attack? It seems that the DJ20,000 will be surpassed by the bulls. The trend is to the upside and the backdrop shows a leaning bullish.
It would be very important to consolidate the advances of the market but this is Christmas Rally, volume is very high and the markets are measured at their resistances.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We expect positive numbers for 4th. Quarter and 2017 quarters with relation to the GDP because the interest rate hike seems to be orderly and there are signs that corporations are going to invest and individuals are going to spend more, both were waiting for the elections results. If that, it would be worth to be invested.
DJ20,000 and S&P2,300 are next target for bulls.

Dear traders and investors, we are in rally mode, Christmas Rally, stay long stocks, the trend is to the upside and economy is doing well as some corporations. The consumption plays important role in the U.S.A. economy and it is robust.  The stock market had a difficult behavior during the last three years to make money. The last two months up move has been a great change and offers an optimistic future for 2017.
We have had difficult times for trading and investing because the market stayed in a range with big surprises Brexit and U.S. election movement, but we were always optimistic with the bullish mode and we were awarded with November and December rally. I wish you Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a Happy and Marvelous New Year!
We will be always working together and I am very happy for having helped you to navigate in these so turbulent seas.


Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Bulls control the trend: Is the FED coming?

DJ Resistance:  20,000
                           19,953.75 New all-time high
                           19,911      Last closing

DJ Support:      19,550      Hourly chart
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,060      Hourly chart
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,888.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,520
                           15,980      Strong
                           15,450      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has taken 7 straight days doing new all-time high. The three indexes are in uncharted territory. DJIA is the strongest attacking the 20,000.
It is hard to define the DJ supports in these new territories. DJ19,200 should be the important support. The way to the upside was done almost without resistance from November 4th. The bounce up is similar to the Brexit breakout.
The three indexes show a firmly bullish trend for the long term.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Well, this Wednesday is the day to increase the interest rates by the FED. The market is waiting for that from almost two years. It is so odd that the stock market is doing all-time new highs with expectations about raise of interest rates, that is explaned by the investors always look to the future.
We have witnessed a rotation in the stock market during the last three weeks, investors were looking for growth, positioning and avoiding conservative and dividing paying stocks.
Christmas Rally? It seems that we are in a constant rally after more than two years playing in the range.
Dear traders and investors, besides economy the market expects a positive 2017 for the stock market, my opinion is to stay long with growth stocks.
Nothing more to say by the time.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
            

Leaning-bullish Trend

DJ Resistance:  19,275      All-time high
                         

DJ Support:      19,225
                           19,150
                           19,055
                           18,920      Strong
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,470      Strong & 50 days MA
                           18,030      200 Days moving average
                           17,995      Strong
                           17,888.23 November low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA, the strongest index, got new all-time high on Monday DJ19,275, its natural target is DJ19,300 as I have indicated 2 or 3 weeks ago. Good support will be DJ19,150. Watch the index at resistances to calibrate the strength.
We can say that DJIA is in a rally mode and preparing itself for a possible Christmas Rally, then the trend is to the upside barring a brake out of supports.

Click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
S&P is ready for new all-time high, it didn't get like DJIA it because to the rotation looking for stock growth.
Next important economic new is Consumer Sentiment this coming Friday which should be positive and the almost sure rate increase by the FED on December 14th. The others are not relevant this week.
The market feels that the best place to invest the money is the stock market. I think the best would be a consolidation before to continue to new highs where the market will take profits. It would be shortly before SP2,280 and DJ19,500. But it seems the rally is in continuous mode.
Dear traders and investors, DJIA and S&P are looking for higher skies stay long stocks.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!


                         

Clear Bull Trend

DJ Resistance:  19,152      All-time high
                         
DJ Support:      19,090      Light
                           18,923      Old time closing high
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,470
                           18,247      August low
                           17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                           17,990      200 days moving average
                           17,888.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520    
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Strong very strong

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes did new all-time highs, they broke their respective resistances. November began with a sell off and reversed with the Brexit style. The reverse brought us with a strong rally to new highs just after the elections. The bull flag broke trigered the DJIA to new all-time highs.
DJIA is the strongest index in these moments. DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ Composite are in uncharted territory. DJIA has strong supports at DJ18,923 and 18,668.
The market needs to consolidate these new highs and DJ19,300 to 19,350 could be the target if Christmas rally.
The mid-term trend is bullish.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
                         
                     

Fundamentals:
After the elections we got our announced rally, I am very happy because this time we have reed very well the market.
 Economics are doing well, yesterday good news are:
Consumer Confidence to 107.1 from 98.6, the best from the previous 2008 crisis, Redbook Weekly Retail Sales Report the best of the year, and GDP revised to 3.2% from 2.9%.
Retail Sales positive.
Hopefully we are going to receive the New Year with a Christmas rally.
We are going to have important news like the pending rise of interest rates between others. My opinion is that the market needs to consolidate its advances before to continue its uptrend.
Dear traders and investors, economy is improving which means better profits and higher stock prices. Stay with positions in the stock market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

DJIA New Old-time High

DJ Reistance:  18,934      All-time high

 DJ Support:    18,668     Old all-time high
                          18,636     August highs
                          18,470
                          18,247     August low
                          17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                          17,888.23     November low
                          17,861     200 Days moving average
                          17,579     Inflexion point
                          17,433
                          17,125      Very strong
                          16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                          16,667      Inflexion point
                          16,520
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,450      Strong
                          15,370.33 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
Just during the counting of votes on November 8th. night the market got a sell off. The DJIA went under DJ17,900 and bulls came back producing a bounce upward. A new "V Bounce" is formed like with Brexit reversal. DJIA has done a bounce of 1,050 points from November low and the index entered in uncharted territory again.
Supports are well defined at DJ18,470 and 18,247. The area DJ17,995 - 18,016 is a very strong support.
S&P has not done new all-time high. It is at 8 points of the higher closing SP2,190 and 12 points to the all-time high SP2,194.
The short and long term trend are firmly leaning-bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

  

Fundamentals:
It was clear to me the coming rally once the uncertainty of who would be the new President of U.S.A.
This rally is done on positive perspective in the U.S.A economy and growth.
The market is still in earnings season and in the next 15 days we are going to receive a lot of economic news like producer price index, industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer price index, housing starts, leading indicators, etc. The economy is doing well and the market is optimistic about it.
If the FED is going to hike the interest rates we should short the bonds in the market. The possibilities for that increase are high but we have to evaluate if it will be done in December or with the new administration next year.
After positive news like Retail Sales on Tuesday which were better than expected, the fourth quarter of GDP is estimated now in +3.3%.
Dear traders and investors, rally is in the market, DJIA did new aa-time high. I think that S&P will do it this or next week.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Strong Rebound

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap unfilled
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                         
DJ Support:     18,247      August low
                          18,211      50 Days moving average
                          17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                          17,888.28 November low
                          17,800      200 Days moving average
                          17,579      Inflexion point
                          17,433
                          17,125      Very strong
                          16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                          16,667      Inflexion point
                          16,520
                          15,980      Very strong
                          15,451      Strong
                          15,370.33 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
As I explained in the last week blog the possibilities to breake down the support at DJ17,995-18,016 were more probably than a bounce up. The market went down last week doing November low at DJ17,888.28 but what a bounce up on Monday and Tuesday.
The bounce up put DJIA in an uptrend and should be very well supported after technical analysis. It is over DL18,211 (50 days moving average) and DJ18,247 (August low). This engulfing move to the upside in the last 2 days is very bullish but the future of this hectic move depends on the U.S.A. elections
Technically the trend is bullish-leaning, but I would see the afterward of the elections.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals: 
Well, elections ended and now all will going to work.
The market took Hillary Clinton as positive for the stock and Donald Trump as negative. In my opinion the U.S.A. economy is doing well and the economy drives the financial markets.
Volatile is going to be present every moment but the calm will be back. I still expect a rally before the end of the year. We have to see how the world, the markets will assimilate the Donald Trump's triumph and naturally his actions as President of U.S.A. Actually I am optimistic with the U.S.A. economy and with the new administration. U.S.A. is a strong democracy with balanced powers where one does not do what he wants.
Dear traders and investors, not too much to say. Markets reacted negatively but the waters will return to their course. Expect volatility. For example I think the probabilities for higher prices of pharmaceutical corporations like Pfizer are very possible. Stay cool and calm and do not forget the rally is in the way

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones and S&P on Major Support

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap unfilled
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,261      50 days moving average
                           18,247      August low
                           18,160

DJ Support:      17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                           17,960      October low
                           17,758      200 days moving average    
                           17,579      August 2015 inflexion point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflexion point
                           16,520    
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P stay in the range-bound but this time they are approaching the lower band for the third time which is dangerous according technical analysis because the probabilities to break it down are higher than a rebound.
The supports are the area DJ17,995 - 18,016 and DJ17,960 (October low). For S&P the supports are SP2,114 - 2,117 and SP2,080.
The trend still is bullish-leaning barring the support at DJ17,960 breaks down.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Finally elections will take place next week. With a cleared new president I think the market should try the upperside, why? Because in October we had: ISM Manufacturing up to 51.5 from 49.4, ISM Services up to 57.1 from 51.4, GDP raised to 2.9% in above expectations and doubles the pace  from Q2,  and earnings season was positive, the best in 2 years.

Dear traders and investors, we are going to have the elections in one week and the uncertainty will be aside. Market can sell off during this week but remenber the economic news that I listed at the beginning of the blog. You can participate in the sell off if you think that you can buy at better prices. My opinion is that the market will try the upside before the year's end. Will see!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Still Bull Trend

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap unfilled
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,293      50 days moving average
                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:      17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                            17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflexion point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflexion point
                           16,520    
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The chart is very technical. You can see that the market is well supported at DJ17,995 - 18,016 and the resistances are at DJ18,247 (August low) and DJ18,293 (50 days moving average).
The market is working in the range-bound and technically is bullish-leaning barring a break out of the support DJ17,995.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
As I explained last week we are getting positive economic news like the PMI Manufacturing Data for Eurozone which improved from 52.6 to 53.3 which triggered the Monday's up move. On Tuesday. And PMI Manufacturing Data of U.S.A. improved from 51.4 to 53.2. This is good for the U.S. and European economy.
The financial markets do not like uncertainty and November Election is. Besides, the corporate earnings season is showing good results. After the outcome of the election should bring a rally because the important is not the winner but the end of the uncertainty.
The other uncertainty of the market is the interest rates hike in December and consequently the strong dollar.
Dear traders and investors, in my humble opinion I expect a rally before year's end and I would buy in the dips. I expect more range bound until the elections.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Support worked

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap unfilled
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,442      50 Days moving average
                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:
                           17,995 - 18,016 Strong
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflexion point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520    
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
Although DJIA tried to break down the support at DJ17,995 getting DJ17,960 temporary, we can say that the area support DJ17,995 - 18,016 worked very well after a clear bounce up.
August low DJ18,247 is the next resistance and the most important for the bulls is DJ18,447 (September gap unfilled).
Technically, the market is supported and the bullish-leaning is still inviolate. If the support area is violated it would be a dangerous alarm risking a correction phase. The support area subsisted a second attempt and showed a bounce up.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are getting positive corporate earnings this season like Yahoo, Netflix, IBM, Goldman Sacks, Harley-Davidson, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, in the other hands Intel shares felt almost 4%  and Halliburton following quarterly results. Not only that but also positive economic news: Retail Sales Report, Consumer Confidence got new high, Consumer Spending, Personal Income. Conversely, Consumer Sentiment sank to a 13 month low of 87.9 and Housing Starts tumble 9%.
Janet Yellen announced the FED risk waiting too long to increase the interest rates. FED is conscious about the inflation risk too but is clear to maintain the economy growing needs a steady and slow path for the increase of interest rates.
The good news and fundamentals weights over the negative but which one will prevail until the election end? We don't know what will happen after the elections because it is not only presidential, the parliament also takes part. If the president does not get the majority it would be very difficult  to fulfill the election promises.
Dear traders and investors, the market should stay in the range until the Election Day, the risk is if the supports do not work. My opinion is that after November 8 we are going to have a rally, possible for Thanksgiving. At that moment we are going to know the actual deep and force of the bulls. During these days I recommend to be in the defensive mood, take yours precautions.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises     

Bears are coming

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap unfilled
                           18,376      50 Days moving average
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:      17,995      Low of the support area
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450     Strong
                           15,370.43 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P stays in the range but they approximated the low range band on Tuesday, it is important the support on DJ17,995 and SP2,117. Those levels are bull-bear gauge and it would be a real battle field. Below those level the alarms will be triggered.
DJIA has to overcome important resistances at DJ18,351 (old all-time high), 18,376 (50 days moving average) and 18,433 to fill the September gap to satisfy the bulls. DJIA tried to fill the gap and failed, on Tuesday it reversed and went down.
We can say that DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have softened but they remain bullish-leaning over their important supports.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

  Fundamentals:
British pound weakness, U.S. Dollar resurgence, oil up prices (Energy is the best performing sector in 2016), IPO market actually impresses. All that is bullish for the stocks. Earnings season is in place, Alcoa suffered losing 11.4% after its quaterly results. But market does not like uncertainty and the Presidential election in November is going to drive the market and if it sees a winner we are going to have a rally. Conversely the market is going to stay in the range until the elections end in November with the risk of supports break down.

Dear traders and investors, Monday's rally gave to me the impression that the risk is back, the reading is bullish. Do not forget while the interest rates are so low the place to invest is the stock market. Volatility is going to be present during the next 4 weeks. Buy only in the deeps.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                 

DJIA and S&P in the range bound, still bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap
                           18,390      50 Days moving average
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:      17,995      Low of the support area
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P stay in the range bound which means that supports at DJ17,995 and SP2,117 are solid and the bias is still bullish-leaning. A violation of them will put the market in alert mode. The range is well defined for those indexes and NASDAQ COMPOSITE got a new all-time high.
For the bulls it is very important to overcome the resistances at DJ18,390 (50 DMA) and 18,447 (September gap). S&P corresponding are SP2,168 and SP2,180.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
There are some good news like last month ISM Manufacturing which got back to positive at 51.5. The market didn't go to the upside with clarity, why? Because we are in a curled or inverted market. All what is positive for the economy is taken against the stock market because the expectation about the interest rates hike. December FED decision seems to be ready for the interest rate increase. This is contradictory of what we expect of the market behavior following the way we were skilled as traders and investors. Pay attention to that and do not forget that this bull market is based on the Earnings Yield dominance over the Bond Yields. This bull market will be in place while the interest rates hike and the inflation will move up in a slow motion.
FTSE 100 rally to near record and  the British pound sinks to U.S.$1.2699, its lowest since June 1985.
We have five weeks for the presidential election and until that date we are going to witness volatility.
Dear traders and investors, September, the worst months for the stock market, is ended. What I expect most likely for October is that the market will stay in the range bound therefore buy only in the dips, not now, because we are near the high. Put your fresh money aside.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Technically Still Bullish Bias

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high

                           18,470

                           18,351      Old all-time high

                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:      17,995     Prior 18,016 strong support

                           17,700

                           17,579      August 2015 Inflection point

                           17,433

                           17,125      Very strong

                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high

                           16,667      Inflection point

                           16,520  

                           15,980      Very strong

                           15,450       Strong

                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:

Major supports worked and the indexes bounced up from major supports DJ17,995 and SP2,117. They are very important for the bulls, if they break down the still bullish bias could change for a reverse.

We can see that the indexes are in the range. September is a volatile month and the volume increased a little bit but market expects higher activity, let's say more participants. DJ18,247 (August low) is now the resistance and the next DJ18,351 old all-time high.

The last 15 days high DJ18,450 approximately and where the DJIA has topped is the level to fill the first September gap, very technical. DJIA has failed two attempts to break the 50 days moving average in September (please watch the blue line in the chart).

The Trend is still leaning-bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:

Market got some negative economic news, others considere a flurry, like PMI Manufacturing index which went down to 51.4 from 52.1, those make that interest rates stay low and not allowing the FED to raise them due the decelerating economy. The low rates weak the dollar which is good for the exports competitiveness. Besides, the volatility will continue until the November election. 

We are facing a great uncertainty due the weak economic data, next FED decision and Presidential election. That raises the downside move risk and we could see a wealthy correction to 200 days moving average DJ17,600 and SP2,059. Those levels would be a very nice opportunity to buy stocks because the bull market is still in place.
Tuesday's rally was done after the Presidential debate because the market doesn't like uncertainty as the polls showed Clinton as winner. It doesn't mean that the market prefers Clinton, that means Trump is uncertainty for the market.

Dear traders and investors, until November we are going to navigate in rough seas, the market should work in the range. My opinion is to keep the cash aside to buy in the dips, there are good possibilties of a santa Claus rally before the end of the year.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

DJIA in a Range

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high

                           18,470

                           18,351      Old all-time high

                           18,247      August low

                           18,171      April peak

DJ Support:      17,995     Prior 18,016 strong support

                           17,700

                           17,579      August 2015 Inflection point

                           17,433

                           17,125      Very strong

                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high

                           16,667      Inflection point

                           16,520   

                           15,980      Very strong

                           15,450       Strong

                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:

DJIA and S&P have maintained themselves over their major supports DJ18,016 to 17,995 (June peak) and SP2,119 while NASDAQ COMPOSITE has almost reached its all-time high and remains the strongest.

DJIA first resistance is at DJ18,247 (August low) and the next and important is DJ18, 351 (old all-time high and breakdown point). S&P has support at SP2,119 and strong resistance at SP2,160 (breakdown point).

DJIA and S&P have formed a holding pattern waiting for FED meeting and policy directives of bank of Japan this week. The trend is still to the upside and well supported at DJ18,000 area.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:

Hard times, market waits for the FED decision about rates hike and the policy directives from the bank of Japan this week.

Good news we got on Friday, household net worth climbed over 89 trillion U.S. dollars in second quarter. We can explain those gains from stocks and real state rise. That explains why buyer are coming on the dips.

If there is not rate hike, would be a stock rally? Very difficult in my opinion. But it is hard to foresee the future. I think if support at DJ17,995 doesn't work, we will see a retracement to DJ17,579, S&P to SP2,100 and maybe Sp2,050 approximately 200 days moving average.

Dear traders and investors, I still see a leaning-bullish for the long term but in the short we could face a retracement that would be very healthy to rebuild the positions at a good prices. I recommend not to buy until we see the FED decision and we get the policy directives from the Bank of Japan. We could face three or four weeks very moved.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Important Supports Worked

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,171     April peak

DJ Support:      17,995     Prior 18,016 strong support
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 Inflection point
                           17,433
                           17,125     Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667     Inflection point
                           16,520    
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has an important support at DJ18,016, it has worked and the low before the bounce up was DJ17,995. The S&P equivalent is SP2,117, the index stopped down at SP2,119. The bounce up was at DJ18,351 that is the old all-time high and the old support that was broken in its way to DJ18,016. The S&P did the same movement to its breakdown at SP2,159. Both are inflection points and sleep over them will show bullish bias. If the supports at DJ17,995 and SP2,117 broke down, the bias will shift.
The downdraft of September is important and we have to consider the damage that it has inflicted in the charts. Only if the DJIA and S&P return over DJ18,351 and SP2,159, the damage in the charts will be erased.
The price action is technical and it should consolidate. The long term trend is still leaning-bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
September is scary after the last four days movement. It confirms the statistic that September is the worst month of the year for the stocks.
Market is pending about the interest rates, some are expecting the increase of them next week after the FED meeting, other for December. We have seen that the bond yields have increased from last week. Please, reread my last weak blog where we can see the disappointed data of the U.S.A. economy, especially the ISM Services and Manufacturing. These negative data should reverse.
It seems that this volatility will stay until next FOMC next week.
Dear traders and investors, Presidential elections, interest rates hike and data is weighting in the market. My opinion is that the odds of the bull market should continue and be prepared to sail in rough seas.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

S&P and Dow Jones Hold in the Range

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                         
DJ Support:      18,470
                           18,355      50 Days moving average
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,247     August low
                           18,171     April peak
                           18,016     Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,569      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433    
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis: 
S&P and DJIA stay in the range formed from July. We can say that these ranges were boring during August, the indexes stayed near the upper side during the month which supports the bull bias barring a breakout of the technical supports, DJ18,470, DJ18,355 (50 days moving average), DJ18,351 (old all-time high), DJ18,247 (August low) and the strong support at DJ18,016.
As DJIA is stayed near the new all-time high trying to do new highs we can conclude the bullish trend in the short and long term are in play and provided supports remain unbowed.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We got last week the non-farm payroll which was lower than expected. The unemployment stayed same as prior month.
ISM Service-sector gauge falls to its lowest level since February 2010. Companies of health care, retail goods and financial advice grew in August at a worrisome level. The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufactured index fell to 51.4% from 55.5% in July. It is still positive because it is over 50%. The vast majority of Americans are employed in the service oriented businesses that account for much of the U.S. growth.
The ISM new-orders index decreased to 51.4% from 60.3%, it is the lowest level since December 2013.
ISM Manufacturing came last Thursday lower than expected at 49.4%.
These negative indexes could be temporally week, hopefully, after the creators of them. We have to follow and see what is going to happen with them in the future.
Volume is coming back slowly to the market that will confirm or negate the prices level of the stocks.
These bad news are good for the stock market because the economy is growing slow but with no fear of recession and all that means low interest rates.

Dear traders and investors, these last economic news will not allow the FED to increase the interest rates in September, I expect it for December after a confirmation of the recovery of the bad figures.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Potential Upside

DJ Resistance:  18,668     All-time high
                           18,470

DJ Support:      18,351     Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433      June low
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA near backdrop is slight weaker than S&P but both are attempting to the resistances at the all-time high. This puts the indexes in a bullish mode.
Next supports are DJ18,351 (old all-time high) and DJ18,247 (August low).
DJIA and S&P are in a small range near the highs in the last 7 weeks. Technically the trend points higher.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
August is ending. The senior traders will be in office in ten days. Monday's bounce was due to higher GDP estimate to 3.5%, it comes from the idea that consumer is in good shape after Personal Income & Outlays report.
ADP: U.S. economy adds +177,000 private-sector jobs in August. Next announcements to pay attention are: ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services and this coming Friday August non-farm payroll and unemployment rate.
Actually, we need to wait for the regular activity in the market after the hard August to begin the trading again.
Dear traders and investors, I think that we are going to get an interest rate increase by the FED in December that means only one this year. It seems to me that the targets DJ18,960 and S&P2,220 are reasonable for the next one or two months.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

The trend is Up

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                         
DJ Support:      18,470
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,221       Light
                           18, 171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,522      200 days moving average
                           17,433     June low
                           17,125     Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong Septembet 2015 high
                           16,667     Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJ18,470 should act as a strong support in the short term, besides the last three weeks range-bound is DJ18,470-18,668. Technically the breakout to the upside is set due the light sell pressure at resistance in the range which is just under the all-time high.
The three indexes are in new territories in slow motion but supported and always attempting the upside. This is bullish.
The short, medium and long term trend is constructive to the upside according to technical analysis barring a violation of DJ18,470 and 18,016.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals: 

The market is expecting the FED's Janet Yellen speech this coming Friday at Jackson Hole. It could move the market to the up or down side.

The U.S. economy in Q2 had a slow or moderate growth 1.2%. The third should be stronger after the last news like the new home sales on Tuesday and the better corporate profitability we saw in the last earnings season, besides the low interest rates.

The lack of negative news would be the trigger to continue with the up move in a faster speed. Only very negative news like the consequences of Brexit could bring a strong correction. There are other news where we have to pay attention like the November election.

As I have explained in the Technical Analysis section the market is doing new all-time highs in a very slow mode during the last three weeks. This way is new in the market but is supported projecting new highs,

Dear traders and investors, August is August, not easy. Volume is improving, in ten days the market will be working as always and we will see its behavior. I think that the potential is for the up side. 

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Small step by small step making new highs

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high

DJ Support:      18,470      Important
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,221
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,498      200 Days moving average
                           17,433      June low
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes have continued doing new all-time highs in a slow motion. This continued up move is considered real and supports the bullish bias. The July breakout is supported and a consolidation phase is in place.
Important supports are DJ18,470, 18,351 (old all-time high), 18,171 and 18,016 (breakout).
The Brexit June whipsaw, "V" bottom, puts a target of DJ18,970 and SP2,235 for the S&P 500.
20 days moving average supports DJIA at DJ18,491.
First important support for S&P is SP2,175 equivalent to DJ18,470.
Summer August movement will be reconfirmed in September or October due the too low volume, please watch it at the chart.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The upcoming news are light for the market until September ISM Mfg, ISM Services and unemployment. These three economic news can shake the market. What could the market's behavior be until the news arrive? It should continue the trend that we have witnessed during the last seven weeks let's say to the upside.
Market is having three scenarios in front. First, the up move will continue, second the consolidation phase is going to take long but it would create the base for an upward move and third, we are going to enter in a correction phase that could trigger a bear market. In my opinion de first two scenarios are the most possible, why? The recent economic data has put the Q3 GDP estimated at +3.6% after the Q2   disappointed +1.2%. The consensus estimate +2.8% for Q3. The largest component of GDP is the consumer spending which grew 4.2% in Q2 compare to +1.6% in Q1. Retail sales grew by 3.1% in the 2016 first semester compared with the same period in 2015. Spending on durable goods +8.4%, spending on non-durable goods +6.0% and services +3.0% with respect to Q1.

Dear traders and investors, August is August, the interest rates are still low and the U.S.A. economy is doing well not spectacular but like in the last years path that means slow but constant. I don't know how August is going to close but the trend is up sustained by the technical analysis and fundamentals. We have to discuss about the U.S.A., EU, Japanese, China and other countries debt, it is a dangerous problem, but for the moment liquidity is needed to overcome the various crises.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises