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miércoles, 27 de enero de 2016

Consistent bounce up?

DJ Resistance: 18,351     All-time high
                        18,206      Breakout
                        18,104      2014 peak
                        17,978      November peak
                        17,810
                        17,579      Inflection point
                        17,400      200 Days MA
                        17,125      Old support
                        17,050      Old strong support
                        16,933.43  September peak
                        16,667      Important for next leg up
                        16,172      Last week high

DJ Support:     15,980      Strong support
                        18,842
                        15,450      January low
                        15,370.33 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
What a Wednesday last week!
Important supports (DJ15,980, 15,651.51) were penetrated and DJIA bounced up in a lukewarm way but is it a dead cat bounce? It has to overcome DJ16,172, 16,593 and DJ16,667 to think about a possible chart repairs. The DJ15,370.33 support is vital and crucial for the market trend in the medium and long term.
The damage done during January requires the formation of a base which should take some time to aspire to a next leg up.
This correction is not enough, DJIA shows a bearish-leaning trend and is pending technical repairs if the trend is going to shift.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.



Fundamentals:
What a last Wednesday!
Chinese weakness, oil demand and expectations have driven the market lately. Market thinks that the oil Chinese demand drive the oil prices, if Chinese GDP is lower than expected the oil demand would be weaker. Last Wednesday the Chinese stock market lost more than 6% in the session and the trade was stopped. From that day DJIA and S&P have bounced up more than 5%, what we don't know is if the beatings are truly over or the bounce up is a dead cat bounce.
Investors are going to pay attention to the economic news looking for the health of the economy, the corporate earnings (earnings season) and the outlook for stocks. We can speculate that the FED will not arise the interest rate this Wednesday afternoon. This Friday we are going to have the Q4 GDP announcement, market expect a weak figure but how much because an extremely weak figure could revive concerns about a looming recession. In my opinion U.S.A. and E.U. are not doing badly but the U.S. Dollar strength, the last week storm could be reflected in those figures and recession fears will be alive.

Dear traders and investors, there is no other way in these moments than to watch and follow the market. The trend has shifted in a bearish leaning but bulls still have technical supports. Fear is still rampant and as I have explained in the blog it could drive to lower stock prices.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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